Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 14.08.2023

Operational situation

The Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions, consolidating their positions at achieved frontlines and engaging in counter-battery warfare. The adversary concentrates their main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka directions.

General conclusion: 

  • The Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions and are consolidating their positions on the achieved frontlines;
  • The core of the adversary’s “Zapad” operational grouping consists of the 1st Tank Army, the 6th and 20th Combined Arms Armies, and the 11th Army Corps of the Baltic Fleet.
  • The adversary’s “Zapad” operational grouping has a limited number of armored vehicles, with the majority concentrated in the first echelon forces. The rest of their forces mainly rely on regular vehicles, which are also in short supply. The artillery group of the “Zapad” grouping is assessed as substantial.
  • The ammunition stockpiles for the “Zapad” grouping are concentrated within the territory of the Russian Federation. Within the operational zone in Ukraine, the enemy utilizes smaller depots with a limited quantity of reserves.
  • The adversary’s command has not abandoned the plan to advance towards the outskirts of Kupyansk. To achieve this, they are gradually increasing their forces in this direction, including the deployment of the 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the adversary has not yet committed its main forces to battle. The 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 4th and 47th Tank Divisions are held back. The adversary is currently operating with limited forces: two battalions from the composition of the 25th and 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 6th Army (direction towards Synkivka), the 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division (area of Pershotravneve village), the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps, and the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from the composition of the 1st Tank Army (area of Novoselivske village).

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were more than 33 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the adversary conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in areas southeast of Andriivka in the Luhansk Oblast. 
  • The assault groups of the Russian 6th Army advanced near Vilshana, progressing in areas on the left bank of the Oskil River, and are positioned no further than 5 km from the outskirts of Kupyansk. They carried out unsuccessful attacks northeast of Synkivka, north of Kyslivka, and southeast of Andriivka, and engaged in combat near Ivanivka.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces unsuccessfully attacked near Synkivka, the Mankivka tract, Novoselivske, and in the Serebryansk forestry.
  • The 1843rd Motorized Rifle Battalion, the 1427th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops were deployed to the sector of the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 347th Motorized Rifle Regiment was deployed to the right [of it]. The enemy was halted by artillery fire on the heights northeast of Petropavlivka. The attack of the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the enemy was also unsuccessful.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy made unsuccessful attempts to regain lost positions in the areas of Bila Hora, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka in Donetsk Oblast. They counterattacked near Berkhivka and Kurdyumivka. During the counterattack, the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade managed to reclaim a part of southern Klishchiivka, but the Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain control over the southwestern part of Klishchiivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the Defense Forces continue to hold back the Russian forces’ advance in the vicinity of Avdiivka and Maryinka. The Defense Forces control approximately 30% of Maryinka.
  • Zaporizhzhia Direction: 
    • Tokmak Direction (Robotyne): The enemy made unsuccessful attempts to regain lost positions in the area east of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 
    • Assault groups of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping, with a strength ranging from 40 to 60 personnel, attacked Russian positions near Robotyne. They captured certain positions about 3 km east and northwest of Robotyne. Intense battles continue to the east of the village. 
    • Berdyansk Direction (Velyka Novosilka): The enemy made unsuccessful attempts to regain lost positions in the area west of Staromayorske in Donetsk Oblast. They counterattacked from positions near Urozhaine. Russian infantry is retreating from Urozhaine towards Zavitne Bazhannia. 
    • “Tavriya” Operational Grouping attacked Pryiutne.
  • Kherson Direction: Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain a presence west of Kozachi Lagery and have launched attacks on Russian forces near the settlement. Intense battles are ongoing on the eastern bank near the Antonivskyi Bridge, where units of the Russian special forces are working to clear the summer cottage area of Ukrainian forces.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea maritime operational area, the following ships were on combat duty: in the Black Sea – 7 enemy ships; in the Azov Sea – 1; in the Mediterranean – 8, including 2 carriers of cruise missiles. The total salvo of Kalibr cruise missiles is 24 rockets.
  • The incident involving the Palau-flagged dry cargo ship “Sukra Okan” is being widely discussed. According to Russian statements, the ship was stopped for inspection by the Russian Navy’s patrol corvette “Vasiliy Bykov” in the Black Sea. The majority of sources have verified the occurrence of this event.

Change in enemy disposition:

  • The illegal armed formation “Cascade” of the so-called “Police of DPR”, the “Vostok” Battalion, the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade are conducting military operations on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
  • In the area of concentration of the 47th Tank Division, the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment is deployed. This regiment undertook a march from Kantemirovka Railway Station in the Voronezh Oblast of Russia to the village of Sosnivka in the Luhansk Oblast of Ukraine.

Escalation indicators:

  • On August 13, 2023, the presence of Tu-22M3 strategic bombers was detected over the waters of the Azov Sea.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • On the Kupyansk direction, the adversary will operate with two operational-tactical groupings: a northern one formed from the forces of the 6th Army, and a northwestern one consisting of units from the 1st Tank Army and the 11th Army Corps.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the adversary will soon engage the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment in battle, either within the sector of the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade or within the sector of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division.
  • The expansion of the breakthrough area of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping on the Melitopol direction towards Nesteryanka or Myrne could lead to operational collapse due to the adversary’s lack of available operational reserves.
  • Changing the direction of action of the “Tavriya” Operational Group from Novoprokopivka to Verbove could have a pivotal significance in the adversary’s ability to hold their positions on the main defensive line.
  • On the Kherson direction, the adversary’s forces will attempt to break through from the northern outskirts of Oleshky towards the village of Dachi, aiming to compel the forward units of the Defense Forces to abandon their foothold on the left bank of the Dnieper River in the area of the Antonivskyi Bridge.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 13.08.23 

Personnel – almost 254,380 people (+530);

Tanks – 4,306 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,354 (+19);

Artillery systems – 5,099 (+27);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 714 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 479 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –7,562 (+19);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 313 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,213 (+9);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,379 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).


  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 131 towns and villages and 103 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Odesa, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts were shelled particularly intensively. As a result of Russian attacks, at least 9 civilians were killed, 22 people were injured, the Oblast Military Administrations reported at the morning round-up.
  • Russian troops attacked Odesa Oblast at night with three waves of attacks: two waves of attack drones and  one of Kalibr missiles. A Russian missile completely destroyed the FOZZY Cash&Carry hypermarket in Odesa; there were no casualties. The preliminary estimated damage reaches hundreds of millions of hryvnias. The building of the maternity hospital and three more medical institutions were damaged. 
  • As of August 14, due to Russian shelling, 418 towns and villages in 7 regions remain without electricity.
  • According to Petro Andryushchenko, adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, the death rate is constantly increasing in the city. According to him, about 400 people die every week. [In comparison] a year ago, after the occupation and destruction of Mariupol, when there was still no water or electricity, the death rate was about 250 people a week. Andryushchenko attributes the increase to the lack of medications and medical care. 
  • According to Viktoriya Nesterenko, project manager of the ZMINA Human Rights Center, there are currently 21 Crimean political prisoners who have chronic diseases, disabilities, or are elderly and require urgent medical attention. These individuals are held in prisons either in Russia or in the temporarily occupied Crimea. 175 political prisoners are being detained in prisons within the Russian Federation; 45 individuals have experienced a lack of access to adequate medical assistance during their incarceration.
  • On the morning of August 14, a maritime mine detonated near the resort town of Kostinesti in Romania. Local authorities have reported that the explosion occurred upon contact with a pier. While no significant damage was caused, another mine could be present in the waters. As a result of the explosion, a man sustained injuries, although he declined hospitalization.

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