Russia’s war on Ukraine. 15.08.2023
- Опубліковано: CDS
- Категорія: DailyBrief
The Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions, consolidating their positions at achieved frontlines and engaging in counter-battery warfare. The adversary concentrates their main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka directions.
- The Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions and are consolidating their positions on the achieved frontlines;
- Over the past 24 hours, the intensity of combat activities has decreased by half.
- The adversary attacked the Korolivka airbase, where, in their opinion, Ukrainian air-launched cruise missile carriers might be stationed.
- The adversary’s command has initiated the staging [in echelons] of its defense along the Robotyne – Novoprokopivka direction. For this purpose, the 1441st Motorized Rifle Regiment was deployed behind the 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops, which had already suffered significant losses. The 3rd BARS Detachment has been deployed to the left of the 14th BARS Detachment to slow down the advance of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping. The direction has been reinforced by the UAV unit “Lancet” from the composition of the 22nd Separate Marines Brigade.
- The adversary is preparing Verbove for an extended defense. To achieve this, they have positioned the 1429th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops, as well as the 1st and 11th BARS Detachments, on the first line of defense. Inside the village, the 417th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division has established its combat positions.
- The 35th Army of the Eastern Military District covers the direction towards Polohy. Among its units, only the 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade has been deployed into the ongoing operation.
- The adversary’s command has the relatively combat-ready 810th and 336th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiments, the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 5th Separate Tank Brigade as reserves at their disposal.
- The adversary maintains air superiority in specific directions.
- There is a movement of the Russian military formations from the “Dniepr” Operational Grouping to the “Vostok” Operational Grouping, and from strategic reserves to the “Dniepr” Operational Grouping, indicating the implementation of a certain plan.
- If the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping continues its advance towards Volodyne and from Staromayorsk in the southwest direction, then the enemy grouping in the Rivnopillia area will find itself in a dire situation.
- The choice of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping to focus its main thrust on the direction of Velyka Novosilka – Staromlynivka is explained by the presence of the convergence of combat dispositions between the enemy’s 5th and 36th Armies.
- The decision of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping to prioritize its main offensive thrust in the direction of Velyka Novosilka – Staromlynivka is based on the convergence of the enemy’s 5th and 36th Armies’ combat positions [there].
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
- There have been more than 15 combat engagements on various fronts.
- On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced near Orlianka and Mykolaivka, reached the Synkivka-Petropavlivka line and improved their tactical position near Vilshana. The enemy’s 1st Tank Army halted its offensive.
- Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Synkivka, Pershotravneve, Mankivka, and the Usa Forest.
- Russian forces are increasing mine density and explosive obstacles along the international border between the Kharkiv and Belgorod Oblasts to impede further pro-Ukrainian cross-border raids.
- On the Lyman direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions southeast of Andriivka, Karmazynivka, and Myasozharivka. They unsuccessfully attempted to dislodge the Defense Forces from the area of Serebryansk Forest and couldn’t break through the Ukrainian defense near Bilohorivka and Spirne.
- Ukrainian Defense Forces launched counterattacks near Novoselivske, Bilohorivka, Dibrova, Torske, and Terny, which slowed down the Russian Federation’s activity in this region.
- On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces slightly advanced to the south of Klishchiivka and launched an attack near Ivanivske.
- Russian forces made unsuccessful attempts to retake the lost positions near Klishchiivka, to the west of Andriivka, and near Kurdyumivka.
- On the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the Russian forces’ advance in the vicinity of Maryinka and Krasnohorivka in Donetsk Oblast.
- Zaporizhzhia Direction:
- Tokmak Direction (Robotyne): Units of the Russian 56th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division repelled attacks by the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping in the area of Robotyne. Forces from the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army and the 108th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division launched efforts to recapture positions lost to the east of Robotyne. Units of the 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops and the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment are trying to prevent the advance of the forward units of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping through Robotyne; intense close-quarters combat persists within the village.
- The forces of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping are expanding their foothold between Robotyne and Verbove, now up to 5 km wide, and continue advancing from the northwest towards Verbove. They have pressed the 14th BARS Detachment to the first positions of the enemy’s main defense line.
- Berdyansk Direction (Velyka Novosilka): The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping achieved successes to the south and southeast of Staromayorsk and near Urozhaine. The withdrawal of the enemy’s 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from Urozhaine was covered by the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet. Remaining elements of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division consolidated their positions along the curvature of the Mokri Yaly River on the northern outskirts of Zavitne Bazhannia village. To the left of this position, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is defending, which recently attempted an unsuccessful counterattack against the positions of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping’s forward units southwest of Staromayorsk. The brigade is preparing for new counterattacks to hold the Pryiutne-Staromayorsk line.
- Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions west of Staromorske. The “Vostok” Battalion is withdrawing from Urozhaine and taking up new positions on the second defense line.
- Kherson Direction: The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to cross the Dnipro River to the eastern bank using small boats near the Antonivskyi Bridge and Kozachi Lagery.
- In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, the following enemy ships were on combat duty: in the Black Sea – 7 enemy ships, in the Azov Sea – 1, in the Mediterranean – 8, including 2 carriers of cruise missiles, with a total of 24 missiles in the salvo of the “Kalibr” cruise missile system.
Change in enemy disposition:
- Units of the volunteer battalion “Sokol,” the 108th Air Assault Regiment, and the reconnaissance platoon of the 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division of the Russian Airborne Troops are operating near Staromayorsk and Urozhaine.
Possible operation situation developments:
- On the Kupyansk direction, the adversary will operate with two operational-tactical groupings: a northern one formed from the forces of the 6th Army, and a northwestern one consisting of units from the 1st Tank Army and the 11th Army Corps.
- Changing the direction of action of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping from Novoprokopivka to Verbove could have a pivotal significance in the adversary’s ability to hold their positions on the main defensive line.
- The enemy will lose control over Robotyne within the next week.
- On the Kherson direction, the adversary’s forces will attempt to break through from the northern outskirts of Oleshky towards Dachi village, aiming to compel the forward units of the Defense Forces to abandon their foothold on the left bank of the Dnieper River in the area of the Antonivskyi Bridge.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 15.08.23
Personnel – almost 254,920 people (+540);
Tanks – 4,313 (+7);
Armored combat vehicles – 8,370 (+16);
Artillery systems – 5,128 (+29);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 714 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 482 (+3);
Vehicles and fuel tanks –7,584 (+22);
Aircraft – 315 (0);
Helicopters – 314 (+1);
UAV operational and tactical level – 4,242 (+29);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,387 (+8);
Boats/ships – 18 (0).
- According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 13 regions of Ukraine. 139 towns and villages and 96 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. As a result of Russian attacks, at least 5 civilians were killed, 44 people were injured, the Oblast Military Administrations reported throughout the day.
- At approximately 4 a.m. on August 15, the Russian military launched a barrage of 28 missiles from both air and sea platforms towards Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense systems successfully intercepted and destroyed 16 cruise missiles of types Kh-101/Kh-555 and “Kalibr.” However, none of the Kh-22 missiles fired by Russia at Ukraine have been neutralized yet, as confirmed by the Air Force.
- In Smila of Cherkasy Oblast (Central Ukraine), a Russian rocket hit a private enterprise. Another one hit a medical facility. Fortunately, there were no casualties. The attacks resulted in damage to the water and heating supply networks, leading to a water shortage in parts of Smila at present.
- As a result of a rocket attack on Lutsk (Western Ukraine) on the morning of August 15, three employees of the Swedish SKF factory for the production of bearings were killed.
- Russian missiles struck residential buildings in Lviv, causing a fire to break out on the upper floors. Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovy stated that one rocket landed in a kindergarten’s yard. Over a hundred apartments sustained damage, with over 500 windows shattered and a kindergarten completely destroyed. 19 people were injured.
- A private enterprise was hit in Dnipro. Two people were injured. A fire subsequently erupted, engulfing an area of approximately 800 square meters.
- Vitaly Kim, the head of the regional military administration, reported that humanitarian demining efforts have been conducted across 60,000 hectares in Mykolaiv Oblast. The objective is to cover a total area of 85,000 hectares by the end of the year.
- Energoatom has reported that approximately one month ago, on July 18, 2023, Russian occupiers abducted Serhiy Spartesny, an employee of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. Spartesny, who is over 60 years old, held the position of shift chief in the turbine department of the operational division. He has been held in custody by the occupation police since then, with no available information about his well-being or the specific charges he faces from his captors. Communication with him remains impossible at present.
- Based on documents acquired by the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, it has come to light that Russian authorities are conducting evacuation drills in anticipation of potential accidents at the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in the Russian Federation. The Center suggests that these actions are part of a deliberate strategy to divert attention from the ongoing situation at the occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP. The Center stressed that Ukraine is not planning any attacks on nuclear power plants.
Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.
We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org
The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/
Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion
We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua
Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre
Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA
Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent