Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 27.08.2023

Operational situation

Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, consolidating their positions on the achieved frontlines and engaging in counter-battery warfare.

The enemy conducted offensive actions along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, in the west of Donetsk Oblast, and advanced in certain sections of the front.

General conclusion: 

  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces continued their offensive operations on at least two sectors of the front, advancing in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • A strike on the positions of the 3rd Radiotechnical Regiment of the enemy’s 31st Air Defense Division on the Tarkhankut cape and in the area of Mayak village cleared the way for the Defense Forces’ UAVs to target military facilities in Crimea.
  • According to the assessment of the Ukrainian Air Forces, the Air Defence System’s effectiveness is 100% against cruise missiles and 93% against the Shahed-136 strike drones. The challenge remains posed by the Kh-59 cruise missiles.
  • Russian forces are unlikely to regain operational initiative in the next two months.
  • In the Verbove area, the enemy’s artillery has been effectively suppressed, forcing them to compensate for the loss of firepower by deploying a larger number of Su-25 attack aircraft, “Lancet” UAV mortars, and planning air bomb strikes.
  • The advance of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping to the outskirts of Verbove signifies a breakthrough of the enemy’s first defensive line.
  • The continuous expansion of the advance zone of the forward units of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping towards the main defensive line poses a challenge for the Russian military command.
  • Russian forces have shifted their main thrust from the Kupyansk direction to the area near Novoyehorivka.
  • In recent weeks, Russian forces have conducted localized offensive actions to the northeast of Kupyansk and the southwest of Svatove. However, there are no indications that the necessary human and material-technical resources required for achieving tactical success on the operational level are being allocated in sufficient quantities.
  • The enemy’s command does not have the required forces and resources to effectively halt the advance of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping towards Tokmak.
  • A series of enemy’s defensive positions currently being advanced upon by the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping are comprised of dense minefields and fortifications. Russian forces have invested significant efforts, equipment, and resources to maintain these positions. Another section of the Russian defensive positions facing the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping consists of continuous arrays of anti-tank trenches, “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank obstacles, and additional minefields, all of which are covered by fire from fortified positions strategically placed at distances for both firepower and tactical coordination. The scale of minefields in the area of the main defensive line is notably smaller due to the preservation of options for the withdrawal of Russian troops.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 40 combat engagements on various fronts. 
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy’s 15th and 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Novoyehorivka. The 127th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade attacked near Bilohorivka, and the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade attempted to advance near Synkivka. The 347th Motorized Rifle Regiment attacked in the direction of Petropavlivka. 
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked near Synkivka, Novoyehorivka, Novoselivske, Raigorodka, Dibrova, near Torske, and in the area of the Serebryansk forest. 
  • On the Bakhmut direction, units of the enemy’s 18th Motorized Rifle Division, with support from “Storm-Z” assault units, conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Orikhovo-Vasylivka. The 98th Airborne Division and the 13th BARS detachment attacked near Ivanivske, while the 83rd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade and the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps attacked near Klishchiivka.
  • Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced further into the depths of Klishchiivka; attacked near Minkivka and Kurdyumivka, with a general advance rate of 100-300 meters per day. 
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the enemy’s 1st Army Corps conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Pervomaiske. The 109th Rifle Regiment of the 1st Army Corps unsuccessfully attacked towards Stepove, while the 150th Motorized Rifle Division in Maryinka direction managed to capture territory to the south of Novomykhailivka. The enemy unsuccessfully stormed the southwestern outskirts of Avdiivka.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked near Krasnohorivka.
  • Zaporizhzhia direction: 
    • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping initiated battles to capture the first positions of the enemy’s main defense line and penetrated the enemy’s defenses to a depth of up to 1 km on specific sectors. 
    • The forces of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping overcame local enemy fortifications in the Robotyne area and circumvented the remaining fortifications from the east along the Robotyne-Kopani section. They established their right flank and began an offensive towards Kopani. 
    • The advance of the “Tavriya” forces continues in the Novoprokopivka-Verbove sector, which the enemy is unable to halt. Forward units have progressed 1.5 km to the south, northeast of Novoprokopivka, and are gradually squeezing the enemy’s 201st Motorized Rifle Regiment from heights to the northeast of the village. They have approached Verbove by 2 km, making slow but steady progress.
    • The advanced units of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping are advancing along the H08 road towards Mala Tokmachka – Novofedorivka. 
    • In the area of Novopokrovka and between the H08 and T0815 roads, the enemy’s command has deployed the main forces of the 7th Air Assault Division – the 56th and 108th Air Assault Regiments, reinforcing them with the 22nd Separate SOF Brigade. This tactical group has the task of preventing the advance of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping to the Novofedorivka – Verbove line and holding control of the Novopokrovka area. 
    • The directions towards Verbove and Novoprokopivka are covered by the main forces of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army – the 70th and 71st Motorized Rifle Regiments, reinforced by several “BARS” detachments and remnants of the 1430th and 1441st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Territorial Troops.
    • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Vuhledar. 
    • The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping attacked near Staromayorsk, to the south of Urozhaine, near Pryiutne, Staromlynivka, and Kermenchyk. 
  • Kherson direction: Combat is ongoing on the islands in the Dnipro River delta. Small Ukrainian special reconnaissance groups (DRG) landed on the islands in the delta.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea maritime operational area, the following enemy ships were on combat duty: in the Black Sea – 8 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers, and in the Azov Sea – 1 ship. In the Mediterranean – 8 ships, with 2 carriers of cruise missiles. The total salvo of Kalibr missiles is 32.
  • The second civilian vessel “Primus” left the port of Odesa via the Ukrainian humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea, as part of Ukraine’s efforts to circumvent Russia’s attempts to restrict maritime transport. It set course for Varna, Bulgaria, under the flag of Liberia.

Change in enemy disposition:

  • The 31st Air Defense Division of the enemy is deployed in the occupied Crimea, having positional areas near Djankoy, Feodosia, Sevastopol, and Yevpatoria. The division includes no fewer than 40 launchers of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, 24 “Pantsir” anti-aircraft gun-missile systems, 12 “Tor” anti-aircraft missile systems, and 12 “Buk” anti-aircraft missile systems.
  • As part of the “Dniepr” Operational Grouping, the enemy is deploying the 18th Army, with the core being the 47th Motorized Rifle Division.
  • The enemy’s command has relocated units of the 76th Air Assault Division of the Russian Airborne Troops from the Kreminna area to the vicinity of Robotyne.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The enemy’s command will continue attempting active actions on the Kupyansk direction to compel the Ukrainian Defense Forces command to allocate a portion of its strategic reserves specifically to this sector.
  • The success of the enemy’s defense on the Berdyansk direction will depend on the outcomes of battles in the area encompassing Urozhaine-Novodonetske-Kermenchyk-Zavitne Bazhanya.
  • In the event of a breakthrough by the forces of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping into the Staromlynivka defensive sector, one can anticipate actions by the enemy’s 336th Separate Marines Brigade towards Remivka-Volodyne, as well as movements by the 5th Separate Tank Brigade in the direction of Novodonetske-Kermenchyk.
  • Russian forces might attempt to regain initiative within the context of the offensive operations of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, initiating their own offensive operation aimed at advancing westward towards the Oskil River and establishing a buffer zone around the occupied Luhansk Oblast.
  • Russian forces could initiate an offensive operation involving the efforts of 2-3 armies on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions over the course of the next two months.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 27.08.23 

Personnel – almost 260,820 people (+550);

Tanks – 4,396 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,554 (+15);

Artillery systems – 5,403 (+24);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 728 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 498 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –7,854 (+31);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,378 (+11);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,411 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Humanitarian, general:

  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine. 139 towns and villages and 63 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 1 person died, and 4 were injured in Zaporizhzhia Oblast; 2 people died and 1 was injured in Kharkiv Oblast; two people were wounded in Donetsk Oblast, 1 person died and 3 were injured in Kherson Oblast. 
  • On the night of August 25-26, 4 Kh-101/Kh-55/Kh-555 cruise missiles were destroyed by the Ukrainian Air Force over the central and northern regions of Ukraine. The rest of the air targets were probably false, as there were no reports about hits.
  • Sappers discovered and neutralized more than 94,000 explosive objects in the liberated territory of Kherson Oblast.
  • The amount of damage caused by the Russian attackers to the environment increased 5 times over the year, reaching UAH 2 trillion, the Minister for Environmental Protection and Natural Resources said. This number does not include the damage caused by the Kakhovka Dam destruction.

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