Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 30.08.2023

Operational situation

Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, consolidating their positions on the achieved frontlines and engaging in counter-battery warfare.

The enemy conducted offensive actions along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, in the west of Donetsk Oblast, and advanced in certain sections of the front.

General conclusion: 

  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue offensive actions on at least two sectors of the front, advancing in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • The adversary’s control of the Kurdyumivka area (including Zelenopillia, Ozaryanivka, and Andriivka) will have an impact on the overall situation in the Bakhmut area no less significant than the battles in the Klishchiivka area.
  • The logistical support of the adversary’s group in Bakhmut is primarily carried out through Popasna.
  • The adversary’s command is attempting to choose a direction for concentrating their defensive efforts in the Bakhmut direction: either holding Klishchiivka or maintaining Kurdyumivka, Andriivka, and the Odradivka – Mykolaivka Druha line. The adversary lacks the reserves to hold both directions effectively.
  • The adversary’s command regards the defense of the Pavlivka – Mykilske line as a key element of their efforts on the Shakhtarsk direction.
  • The liberation of Mykilske will enable the Defense Forces to advance towards Volodymyrivka – Volnovakha.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 35 combat engagements on various fronts. 
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Novoyehorivka and Bilohorivka. They advanced near Synkivka, where they captured several positions of the Defense Forces units, as well as Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kyslivka, and Kotlyarivka. The overall advancement amounted to about 1 km.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted attacks near Synkivka, Stelmakhivka, Kreminna, Dibrova, Yampolivka, Novoyehorivka, Torske, and in the Serebryansk Forest.
  • Overall, the frontline remains largely unchanged.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the Defense Forces have advanced south of Andriivka and continue to attack near Klishchiivka. Battles are ongoing west of the Klishchiivka – Andriivka – Kurdyumivka line. Advanced units of the Defense Forces pushed back units of the Russian 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade and the 51st Parachute Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division from their positions on the northwestern outskirts of Andriivka. The Ukrainian Defence Forces consolidated their positions and forced the adversary to withdraw completely beyond the railway.
  • Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Bohdanivka and Ozaryanivka and launched counterattacks near Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka. Units of the Chechen special forces “Akhmat” and the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps advanced to a height near Klishchiivka. The adversary is attempting to organize a defensive line along the railway on the section between Bakhmut and Kurdyumivka and continues to counterattack on specific directions in order to create favorable conditions for maintaining control over the Bakhmut-Horlivka highway.
  • Operating along the Bakhmut-Klishchiivka road and eastward of this locality, the adversary engaged units of the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division in a series of counterattacks in the southwest direction within the defense sector of the 83rd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade.
  • The adversary’s 83rd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, holding positions along the railway line to the south of this sector, periodically attempts to push back the advanced units of the Defense Forces from the southwestern part of Klishchiivka. The disjointed attacks by these two military units yield no result, although they have halted the advance of the Defense Forces toward the Klishchiivka-Zaitseve direction.
  • Further to the south, the Russian 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, reinforced by units from the 141st Separate Motorized Regiment of the Special Purpose, strives to maintain positions along the Andriivka-Kurdyumivka sector.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Avdiivka and Maryinka. The Defense Forces launched an attack near Nevelske.
  • Zaporizhzhia direction: 
    • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): “Tavriya” Operational Grouping advanced towards Novodanylivka and Verbove, moving approximately 5 km southeast of Robotyne. Stabilization measures are being carried out in Robotyne.
    • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Russian forces repel attempts by the “Tavriya” Grouping to establish themselves on the Staromayorske-Urozhaine line. The extensively employ aviation.
    • Units of the Russian 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, reinforced by units of the 116th Rifle Regiment of the 1st Army Corps, defending in the vicinity of Mykilske and attempting to hold a foothold on the Kashlagach River, made two unsuccessful attempts to push back the advanced units of the Defense Forces, which approached from the direction of Vuhledar to the northwestern outskirts of the village.
    • “Tavriya” Operational Grouping is actively shelling enemy positions in Novodonetske.
    • The Defense Forces forced the left-flank units of the Russian 14th Separate SOF Brigade to withdraw from the western part of Pavlivka to its central part on the opposite bank of the Kashlagach.
    • Advanced units of the Defense Forces reached the outskirts of Shevchenko village and created conditions for encircling the enemy’s left flank (155th Separate Marines Brigade and 14th Separate SOF Brigade). However, to complete the maneuver, they have to liberate Yehorivka village.
    • The distance from Shevchenko village to the northern outskirts of Mariupol is 65 km, making it currently the shortest distance from the front line to the Azov Sea coast.
  • Kherson direction: Defense Forces units continued local raids across the Dnipro River. 
  • Russian forces engaged in combat with the Defense Forces reconnaissance and sabotage group near Kozulisky Island.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea maritime operational area, there were 4 enemy ships on combat duty in the Black Sea; in the Azov Sea – 1 enemy ship; in the Mediterranean Sea – 8 enemy ships were on combat duty, including 2 Kalibr cruise missiles carriers, with a total salvo capacity of up to 24 missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:

  • Artillery units of the 106th Airborne Division of the Russian Airborne Forces are operating to the north of Soledar. 
  • In the Kurdyumivka-Zelenopillia area, the defense is being carried out by the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, reinforced by detachments of the 346th Separate SOF Brigade and elements of the 68th Tank Regiment. 
  • The adversary’s grouping on the Bakhmut direction reserves includes the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps, separate units of the 80th Tank Regiment, and up to four “volunteer” detachments (13th “BARS” Detachment, “Russian Legion,” “Ghost,” and others).
  • The area of Novozlatopil – Vyshneve – Stepove – Novoukrainske is defended by the 143rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army, reinforced by units from the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet. 
  • On the Novomykhailivka – Shevchenko line, the defense is led by the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, reinforced by units from the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army and the 1466th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops. 
  • To maintain control over two key defense points on the Berdyansk direction (Staromlynivka and Kermenchyk) and prevent the advance units of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping from reaching the first position of the main defense line, the adversary’s command deployed forces from two armies – the 5th and the 36th. Their operational arrangement is as follows:
    • the first echelon: 143rd and 394th Motorized Rifle Regiments, 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 247th Air Assault Regiment, 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 131st Rifle Regiment of the 1st Army Corps, and 40th Separate Marines Brigade; 
    • the second echelon: 336th Separate Marines Brigade, 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 218th Tank Regiment, 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Separate Tank Brigade, and 1466th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops. 
    • The artillery group includes the 305th Artillery Brigade of the 5th Army and the 30th Artillery Brigade of the 36th Army. The 30th Artillery Brigade is engaged in combat operations in the Novodonetske area.
  • At the Novomykhailivka – Shevchenko line, the adversary introduced the 40th Separate Marines Brigade and the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army into the battle. 
  • In the Mykilske area, the defense is carried out by the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 123rd Rifle Regiment of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps, and the 42nd Separate Marine Reconnaissance Point.

Escalation indicators: 

  • The expansion of the adversary’s attacks on the Kupyansk direction. 
  • Russian forces continue to deploy significant reserves to the Robotyne area, including the Russian Airborne Forces (76th Airborne Division) and heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The adversary’s command will continue active attempts on the Kupyansk direction to compel the Defense Forces’ command to allocate a portion of its strategic reserves specifically to this direction.
  • Russian forces will seek to seize the initiative amidst the Defense Forces’ offensive operation by initiating their own offensive operation with the forces of 2-3 armies. Their aim is to advance westward to the Oskil River and establish a buffer zone around the occupied Luhansk Oblast over the next two months.
  • The liberation by the Defense Forces of the Kurdyumivka area (including Zelenopillia, Ozaryanivka, and Andriivka) will disrupt the adversary’s defensive line communication between Bakhmut and Horlivka and complicate the maneuverability of the adversary’s “Yug (South)” Operational Group.
  • The liberation of the Kurdyumivka area will isolate the directions of Klishchiivka-Zaitseve and Klishchiivka-Opytne from the south, opening a tactical perspective for the Defense Forces units engaged near Klishchiivka.
  • The Defense Forces’ advance to Andriivka from the northwestern and southwestern directions creates conditions for a breakthrough beyond the railway line, posing an encirclement threat to the adversary in the Klishchiivka area.
  • By the end of the week, the adversary’s control over Pryiutne village will gain decisive tactical significance.
  • In the event of a breakthrough by the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping into the Staromykhailivka defensive sector, one should expect actions by the adversary’s 336th Separate Marines Brigade towards the direction of Remivka-Volodyne and the 5th Separate Tank Brigade towards the direction of Novodonetske-Kermenchyk.
  • Battalion defense areas established in Novozlatopil and Novomykhailivka will be held by the adversary at any cost, aiming to maintain control over the Novozlatopil – Lyubimivka – Orlyanske -Staromykhailivka-Kermenchyk-Novomykhailivka rocade.
  • The adversary is conducting reconnaissance of Ukrainian infrastructure objects and may initiate a large-scale series of missile and UAV strikes by the end of September or October. Future missile strikes may utilize around 10-30 missiles and will be accompanied by a significantly larger number of combat Shahed-131/136 UAVs. These UAVs will be employed for strikes against energy infrastructure, primarily targeting power substations.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.08.23 

Personnel – almost 262,410 people (+570);

Tanks – 4,423 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,596 (+17);

Artillery systems – 5,476 (+26);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 733 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 500 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –7,953 (+44);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,395 (+8);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,419 (+0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Humanitarian + General:

  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 148 towns and villages and 93 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 7 civilians were killed, and 19 were wounded by Russian shelling. 
  • On the night of August 30, Ukrainian Air Defense destroyed 43 air targets out of 44 launched by the Russian Federation, namely 28 cruise missiles and 15 attack drones.
  • In Kyiv, as a result of the Russian rocket attack on the night of August 30, two people were killed, and three others were injured. Debris fell on an industrial enterprise in downtown Kyiv and an Auchan store on the left bank of the Dnipro River. 
  • 170 children have been evacuated from the Kupyansk district in Kharkiv Oblast, where hostilities are ongoing after the mandatory evacuation was announced, said Oleg Sinegubov, the head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration. 743 people have been evacuated overall, and about 11 thousand people still remain under constant shelling. 
  • During the full-scale invasion, the National Police received over 93,000 distress calls from individuals subjected to sexual violence inflicted by the Russian occupying forces, as stated by Serhiy Nizhynskyi, an advisor at the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine. Presently, 203-205 cases, duly confirmed by the Prosecutor General’s Office, have been forwarded to the court for adjudication.
  • In Sevastopol, representatives of the occupation military commissars handed out summonses to Crimean Tatars who were detained by the occupation court on August 25. The activists had gathered at the so-called court for a hearing related to the case of six Crimean Tatars who had been detained in Bakrhchisaray earlier on the same day, according to Refat Chubarov, the chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people.

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