Russia’s war on Ukraine. 01.09.2023

Operational situation

Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol direction and south of Bakhmut, consolidating their positions on the achieved frontlines and engaging in counter-battery warfare.

The adversary conducted offensive actions on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, in the area along the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Maryinka and Staromayorske in Donetsk Oblast and Verbove in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The enemy is suffering significant losses in personnel, equipment, and vehicles. They are repositioning their units while deploying reserves.

General conclusion: 

• Ukrainian Defense Forces continued offensive operations in at least two sections of the front, advancing in Zaporizhzhia Oblast;
• The Russian military is unable to seize the initiative on the Kupyansk direction.
• Reports about the “successes” of the Russian troops in the Kupyansk and Bakhmut areas are spread in the Russian information space in order to divert public opinion from the Zaporizhzhia direction;
• The pace of advancement of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping on the Tokmak direction is 2-3 km per day and is trending upwards. The Russian command is unable to halt the progress of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping, and the crisis in the enemy’s defense on this direction is escalating.
• The first position of the Russian main defensive line has been breached by the forces of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping in a relatively narrow section near Verbove.
• The formation of strike tactical groups by the enemy’s command in the areas of Novoprokopivka and Kopani indicates their adequate assessment of the operational-tactical situation on the Tokmak direction.
• The vast majority of the Russian reserves are concentrated on the Volnovakha and Berdyansk directions. Their deployment on the Tokmak direction will require time, and these reserves cannot be quickly brought into operation.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• 25 combat engagements took place in different directions.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensives , supported by aviation and artillery, near Novoyehorivka and Bilohorivka. They unsuccessfully attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Serebryansk Forest area. They are intensifying attacks near Synkivka and in the direction of Petropavlivka.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked in the vicinity of Serhiyivka, Novoyehorivka, Dibrova, and Yampolivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to conduct offensive operations south of Bakhmut, attacked near Bohdanivka, Andriivka and Mayorske, and counterattacked at the Klishchiivka-Kurdyumivka line.
• Russian troops continue strengthening their positions near Klishchiivka and have captured several heights near the village. They are trying to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces from under Klishchiivka and have unsuccessfully advanced near Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka, and Bohdanivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked in the vicinity of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka.
• Zaporizhzhia direction:
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): the first position of the Russian main defensive line has been breached by the advanced units of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping on a frontage of approximately 3 kilometers.
  • The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping continued its offensive operations and succeeded on the Novodanylivka – Novoprokopivka axis. They advanced into the forested area near Robotyne, bypassed Robotyne, and advanced towards Novoprokopivka, where the enemy’s 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment was defending, reinforced by remnants of the 1430th and 1441st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Territorial Forces.
  • The Russian 1429th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Forces, along with units of the 100th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade and 417th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, repulsed five Ukrainian assaults near Verbove. They conducted a series of unsuccessful counterattacks, but were unable to halt the expansion of the Ukrainian forces’ tactical penetration into their main defensive line in the southeast direction. Ukrainian units of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping have breached the enemy’s first line of defense not only along the Verbove axis but also to the west of it.
  • The Russian 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment, reinforced by the 1st, 3rd, 11th, and 14th divisions of the BARS, is trying to prevent the breakthrough of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping to Ocheretuvate. The Russian 210th Motorized Rifle Regiment, having lost control over the commanding heights northeast of the village, was forced to retreat to Novoprokopivka.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): “Tavriya” Operational Grouping continued its offensive near Pryiutne, Urozhaine and Staromayorske.
  • Russian forces counterattacked in the Pryiutne area, trying to ensure the withdrawal of their troops to the line between Pryiutne and Zavitne Bazhanya.
• Kherson direction: Russian troops continue their attempts to establish positions on the islands in the delta of the Dnipro River. They are trying to seize a foothold on Neustria Island and maintain control over the islands of Bilohrudyi and Mali Bilohrudyi. Meanwhile, the Defense Forces are engaging in limited activity on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast and are trying to secure positions to the northeast of Pidstepne.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 4 Russian ships: 1 in the Sea of Azov; 8 ships were on combat duty in the Mediterranean, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total salvo is 24 Kalibr cruise missiles. 

Change in enemy disposition:

• In the Novoprokopivka area, the 104th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division is concentrated; the deployment of two more regiments from this division is expected.
• The 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 78th “North – Akhmat” Motorized Regiment of Special Purpose, and the 121st and 123rd Rifle Regiments of the 1st Army Corps, the “Bashkortostan” “volunteer” battalion are kept in the operational reserve of the Russian “Vostok(East)” Grouping’s command. The deployment of the 234th and 237th air assault regiments of the 76th air assault division should be expected.
• The National Guard of the Russian Federation is creating a new formation – the 116th Separated Special Purpose Battalion of the 21st separate operational brigade of the Russian Guard.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The adversary’s command will continue active attempts on the Kupyansk direction to compel the Defense Forces’ command to deploy a portion of its strategic reserves specifically to this direction.
• Russian forces will seek to seize the initiative amidst the Defense Forces’ offensive operation by initiating their own offensive operation with the forces of 2-3 armies. Their aim is to advance westward to the Oskil River and establish a buffer zone around the occupied Luhansk Oblast over the next two months.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces’ advance to Andriivka from the northwest and southwest directions creates conditions for a breakthrough beyond the railway line, posing a threat of encirclement to the enemy in the Klishchiivka area.

·       The liberation of the Kurdyumivka area (including Zelenopillia, Ozaryanivka, and Andriivka) by the Ukrainian Defense Forces will disrupt the enemy’s rocade communication between Bakhmut and Horlivka, complicate the maneuverability of the adversary’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, and isolate the southern approaches to Klishchiivka – Zaitseve and Klishchiivka – Opytne. This will open up a tactical perspective for the Ukrainian Defense Forces units engaged in combat near Klishchiivka.

·       In the event of a breakthrough by the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping forces into the Staromlynivka defense sector, one should anticipate actions by the enemy’s 336th Separate Marines Brigade towards the direction of Remivka – Volodyne, and by the 5th Separate Tank Brigade towards the direction of Novodonetske – Kermenchyk.

• The enemy’s battalion defense areas, equipped in Novozlatopil and Novomayorske, will be held by the enemy at any cost, allowing them to maintain control over the corridor rocade Novozlatopil -Lyubimivka -Orlynske-Staromlynivka -Kermenchyk-Novomayorske.
• Over the next week, the Russian military command will be forced to make a decision regarding the situation in the Southern operational zone, where, at least on the Tokmak direction, a crisis is developing that could escalate into an operational one. We should expect the enemy’s reassignment of reserves from other operational zones, primarily the “Dniepr” Operational Grouping reserves in the Kherson Oblast.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 01.09.23 

Personnel – almost 263,490 people (+470);

Tanks -4,459 (+23);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,613 (+9);

Artillery systems – 5,530 (+23);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 735 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 500 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,009 (+33);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,421 (+4);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,445 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Humanitarian + General:

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 131 towns and villages and 88 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 2 people were reported killed and 7 injured. 
• On the night of August 31, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with two Kalibr missiles. One cruise missile was shot down over Kirovohrad Oblast in the center of Ukraine. There was no damage, no casualties or injuries. The other hit and enterprise in Vinnytsia Oblast. An unspecified number of people were injured and needed medical attention.
• 11 children aged 2 to 16, who were illegally kept by the Russians in the temporarily occupied territories of Kherson Oblast, returned to the territory controlled by Kyiv, Kherson Oblast Military Administration reported.  
• The Russian invaders destroyed 180,000 books and four libraries in the temporarily occupied Mariupol. According to preliminary information, 50% of publications were burned during shelling or were liquidated as “extremist”, the Mariupol municipal council reported. 

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