Russia’s war on Ukraine. 06.09.2023

Operational situation

Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, advancing in the areas of Bakhmut, west of Donetsk Oblast and west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They are consolidating their positions on the achieved frontlines and engaging in counter-battery warfare.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and advanced in certain areas.

General conclusion: 

• The width of the breakthrough lane of the first position of the Russian main line of defense achieved by the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping has already reached more than 4.5 kilometers.
• The Russian 7th Air Assault Division is engaged in combat and cannot be transferred to other sectors.
• The Russian military does not have sufficient counter-battery capabilities and artillery ammunition;
• Russian forces rely significantly on Lancet drones and 220mm and 300mm rocket projectiles, the stocks of which are limited.
• The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is forming five new artillery brigades in each of the five military districts of the Russian Armed Forces, aiming to improve overall counter-battery capabilities. These brigades will be equipped with 203mm self-propelled howitzers 2S7 “Pion” and 2S7M “Malka” from stockpiles.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• 28 combat engagements took place in different directions.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops unsuccessfully advanced near Novoyehorivka and Bilohorivka, captured several positions near Synkivka and Petropavlivka, continued to push out the Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions near Petropavlivka, achieved success in the Novoselivske area and continued to slowly advance to the Oskil River west of Svatove.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked near Dibrova, in the area of Serebryansk forest and Torske.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have achieved success south of Andriivka. They continued offensive actions south of Bakhmut and strengthened positions in this area. They are also advancing near Klishchiivka and engaging in positional battles near the Berkhiv reservoir. Russian forces have regained previously lost positions near Kurdyumivka.
• Russian troops regained previously lost positions near Kurdyumivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked along the Avdiivka – Donetsk line and stormed Russian positions near Opytne.
• Russian troops advanced to the southwest of Donetsk and unsuccessfully attacked near Maryinka.
• Zaporizhzhia direction:
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne):  The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping advanced to the northwest and south of Robotyne and the northwest of Verbove. Advanced units moved approximately 2 kilometers south of the H-08 road toward Novofedorivka.
  • Russian 76th Air Assault Division units, during counterattacks from the west and east, recaptured several streets in southern Robotyne. Russian forces counterattacked to the northeast of Novoprokopivka and southwest of Verbove. Units of the 417th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, the 1429th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops, and the 1st and 11th BARS detachments are now compelled to engage in combat operations along the western and northwestern outskirts of Verbove.
  • Units of the 201st Motorized Rifle Regiment, positioned on the eastern outskirts of Novoprokopivka, along with the 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 3rd and 14th BARS detachments, are attempting to prevent the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping from advancing further to the south.
  • Units of the 104th Air Assault Regiment on the Robotyne – Kopani direction have lost several critical positions.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping has increased the pace of its offensive actions and has made slight progress in the area of the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Fierce battles are ongoing on the outskirts of Novodonetske, Novomayorske, Staromayorske, and Urozhaine. The heavy artillery fire from the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping to the southeast of Velyka Novosilka significantly affects the enemy’s morale and prevents the enemy’s sappers from increasing the density of minefields.
  • The enemy, with the forces of the 247th Air Assault Regiment, counterattacked near Pryiutne and pushed back the advanced units of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping. Russian command, a few days ago, transferred several battalions from the Novodonetske and Novomayorske areas to Staromayorske, including units from the 36th and 131st Separate Motorized Brigades, the 40th Separate Marine Brigade, and the 1466th Motorized Rifle Regiment of Territorial Troops.
  • In the Mykilske area, the defense is being held by the 155th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet, while the rest of the brigade’s units have been placed in reserve.
• Kherson direction: The Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain their positions on the eastern bank of the Kherson Oblast near Kherson. However, the enemy has managed to stabilize the situation near Hola Prystan. The situation near the Antoniv Bridge and Dachi village is becoming increasingly tense. Two-thirds of Dachi is under the control of the Russian 95th Rifle Regiment of Mobilization Reserve.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 9 Russian ships on combat duty, 1 in the Sea of Azov. There were 2 Russian ships on combat duty in the Mediterranean. The total salvo is up to 8 Kalibr cruise missiles. 
• On the Kerch Bridge in the temporarily occupied Crimea, a new section has been installed to replace the one damaged due to the explosions on July 17.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• Russian forces will seek to regain the initiative amidst the Defense Forces’ offensive operation by initiating their own offensive operation with the forces of 2-3 armies. Their aim is to advance westward to the Oskil River and establish a buffer zone around the occupied Luhansk Oblast over the next two months.
• On the Berdyansk direction, the enemy has to hold the Pavlivka – Mykilske line as a precondition for disrupting the advance of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping towards Volodymyrivka – Volnovakha.
• The 42nd Motorized Rifle Division will hold back the advancement of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping at the first or between the first and second positions of the enemy’s main defense line. This will buy time for the Russian military command to prepare counterattacks in the directions of Kopani – Novodanylivka and Novopokrovka – Mala Tokmachka with the forces of the 7th and 76th Air Assault Divisions, presumably forcing the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping command to allocate part of its assault forces to cover flanks or introduce some reserves into the operation.
• In the near future, the enemy will deploy units of the 291st and 210th Motorized Rifle Regiments to reinforce the defense sector, either of the 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment or of the 201st Motorized Rifle Regiment. Otherwise, the encirclement of the Russian defensive node in Novoprokopivka by the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping from the east will become inevitable.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 06.09.23 

Personnel – almost 266,290 people (+610);

Tanks – 4,497 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,682 (+12);

Artillery systems – 5,685 (+36);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 748 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 505 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,190 (+15);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,519 (+7);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,447 (0);

Boats/ships – 19 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 137 towns and villages and 85 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. One person is reported dead, and 9 people were reported injured in Odesa, Donetsk and Kherson Oblasts;
• Ukrainian air defense successfully intercepted and destroyed 23 out of the 33 Russian air targets that attacked Ukraine during the night of September 6. These Russian missiles and UAVs included 7 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles, one “Iskander-M” ballistic missile, and 15 attack UAVs of the Shahed-136/131 type.
• In Odesa Oblast, a Russian attack lasted for almost three hours. Russian forces attacked the Izmail district with attack drones. An employee of the agricultural enterprise was seriously injured and died in the hospital. Destruction and fires were recorded in several villages. The port and agricultural infrastructure wee damaged, including elevators, administrative buildings, and agricultural enterprises.
• On Wednesday, September 6, Russian forces attacked the central market in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, during the afternoon when many local residents were present. As of 18:00, the search and rescue operation had concluded. 17 people, including a child, lost their lives in the attack, and 32 others sustained injuries, Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Ihor Klymenko reported. 
• The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, condemned Russia’s attack on Kostyantynivka and noted that Russia always hits civilians when the Ukrainian Defense Forces succeed on the front lines.
• 338 Ukrainian MPs voted to appoint Rustem Umerov as the new Minister of Defense. Currently, the Rada has 404 members. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal expects that the new Minister of Defense will quickly familiarize himself with his responsibilities and continue the reforms in the defense sector.

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