Russia’s war on Ukraine. 07.09.2023

Operational situation

The Ukrainian Defense Forces continued their offensive operations on the Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia fronts and achieved success in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They are also engaging in counter-battery warfare.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and advanced in certain areas.

General conclusion: 

• The width of the breakthrough zone of the enemy’s main defense line breached by the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping is already more than 4.5 kilometers.
• The enemy lacks sufficient counter-battery capabilities and artillery ammunition.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 39 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces improved their tactical positions near Novoyehorivka, attacked near the Zherebets River, and unsuccessfully attacked near Novoselivske. 
• The Ukrainian Defense forces launched attacks near Serhiyivka, Dibrova, and Serebryansk Forest.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the Russian forces are attempting to prevent a breakthrough of their defense line between Krasnopolivka and Yakovlivka from the north of Soledar. They attacked near Zaliznyanske, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Klishchiivka, and Bila Hora. They regained control of some heights west of Klishchiivka, partially displacing Ukrainian forces from positions near Berkhivka. Positional battles continue. In the area of Soledar, the enemy reinforced units of the 137th Parachute Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division with the 29th BARS Detachment and the 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade with the detachment of the PMC “Potok”.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces have displaced Russian troops from positions south of Bakhmut, advanced in Klishchiivka and gain control of half of it. They launched attacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces have made slight progress to the east of Nevelske and launched attacks on Nevelske and Maryinka.
• Russian forces have advanced to the east of Krasnohorivka.
• Zaporizhzhia direction: 
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): Forward units of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping have approached and secured positions 2.5 kilometers from Novoprokopivka. They are very close to cutting off the enemy’s logistical route Novoprokopivka – Verbove. Units of the Russian 71st and 210th Motorized Rifle Regiments are trying to prevent such a development.
  • On the northeastern outskirts of Verbove, intense close-quarter combat continues between Ukrainian infantry and units of the 417th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade and the 11th BARS Detachment.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Ukrainian forces continued to attack the Novodonetske-Novomykhailivka line, particularly during the night.
• Kherson direction: Russian forces employed four guided aviation bombs KAB-500 for strikes on the Beryslav district. Units of the 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army continue to engage in combat.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational zone, there were 11 enemy ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, including 1 carrier of the cruise missile “Kalibr”. In the Sea of Azov, there was 1 enemy ship. In the Mediterranean Sea, there were 2 enemy ships. The total salvo is up to 8 missiles. 
• The Russian Black Sea Fleet is forced to alter its behavior in the Black Sea due to the increased threat of strikes by Ukrainian Navy drones and is increasingly hiding its ships in the ports of occupied Crimea and closer to Novorossiysk.

Changes in enemy disposition: 

• South of Verbove, the enemy is deploying units of the 387th Motorized Rifle Regiment (Territorial Troops, the 44th Airborne Division).
• The 44th Airborne Division includes the 111th Rifle Regiment of the Mobilization Reserve and the 387th Motorized Rifle Regiment of Territorial Troops. The 104th Airborne Division includes the 1044th Motorized Rifle Regiment of Territorial Troops and a Rifle Regiment of the Mobilization Reserve, formed on the basis of the 83rd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• Russian forces will attempt to seize the initiative amidst the Defense Forces’ offensive operation by initiating their own offensive operation with the forces of 2-3 armies. Their aim is to advance westward to the Oskil River and establish a buffer zone around the occupied Luhansk Oblast over the next two months.
• On the Berdyansk direction, the enemy has to hold the Pavlivka – Mykilske line as a precondition for disrupting the advance of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping towards Volodymyrivka – Volnovakha.
• In the near future, the enemy will deploy units of the 291st and 210th Motorized Rifle Regiments to reinforce the defense sector of either the 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment or the 201st Motorized Rifle Regiment. Otherwise, the encirclement of the Russian defensive node in Novoprokopivka by the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping from the east will become inevitable.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.09.23 

Personnel – almost 266,900 people (+610);

Tanks – 4,506 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,703 (+21);

Artillery systems – 5,722 (+37);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 753 (+5);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 506 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,217 (+27);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,541 (+22);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,455 (+8);

Boats/ships – 19 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 141 towns and villages and 88 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 18 people were reported dead, and 33 people were reported injured;
• On the night of September 7, the Air Force shot down 25 Shahed drones out of 33 launched at Sumy and Odesa Oblasts of Ukraine.
• Russian drone attack on the south of Odesa Oblast on September 7 lasted three hours. This is the fourth attack on the Izmail district in the last five days. As a result of the Shaheds attack, civilian and port infrastructure facilities, an elevator and an administrative building were damaged; a truck driver received a minor injury.
• According to the State Emergency Service, since the beginning of the full-scale war, 740 Ukrainians have been affected by explosive devices, with 242 fatalities and 498 injuries. This includes 76 children, of whom 13 lost their lives.
• According to the human rights commissioner of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Dmytro Lubinets, approximately 25,000 Ukrainian citizens can be classified as individuals who have gone missing under special circumstances, effectively making them civilian hostages [of Russian occupation forces]. Lubinets stated, “Our situation does not change. It is extremely terrible: in fact, every day, the Russians detain civilians in the temporarily occupied territories, thus adding to this list.”
• About 90% of Ukrainian prisoners of war have been subjected to torture, rape, threats of sexual violence or other forms of ill-treatment, Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin said. 
• Ukraine has lost approximately 35-40% of its freshwater reserves due to the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station dam. This amounts to the quantity of water that could be consumed over the course of a year, stated Ihor Syrota, the General Director of Ukrhydroenergo PJSC.
• The Center for Journalist Investigations has reported a significant increase in Russian presence in villages along the so-called land corridor. Residents in villages surrounding Berdyansk and Mariupol have stated that Russian military personnel are confiscating property from local residents who have relocated to areas controlled by the Ukrainian government. Additionally, they are accommodating Russian servicemen in these homes without military necessity and without providing compensation to the owners. Villages like Dmytrivka, Novopetrivka, Troyany, Staropetrivka, Osypenko, Azovske, Novovasylivka, Andriivka, Mykolayivka, and others have witnessed such incidents.
• The Center also reports that Russian citizens are moved to the newly occupied territories. They register agricultural enterprises most likely to legitimize the stealing of grain from Ukrainian producers who remained under occupation. According to Serhiy Danylov of the Center for Near Eastern Studies, local farmers are forced to sell grain at a price four times below the market price. 

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