Russia’s war on Ukraine. 08.09.2023

Operational situation

The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, achieving success in the area south of Robotyne, and consolidating their positions at the reached frontlines.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and advanced in certain areas.

General conclusion: 

• The offensive operation of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping could achieve operational success in 2023, but the subsequent defensive lines of the enemy continue to pose significant challenges for the Defense Forces.
• The enemy’s command has begun the early formation of a covering echelon for their Tokmak defensive area.
• Russian forces periodically withdraw to tactical rear areas before returning to their original positions; control over the forward positions along the Novodonetske-Novomayorske line alternates between the opposing sides.
• The Russian defense is not uniform along the entire front in southern Ukraine. The assessments of the strength of the second and third defensive positions are primarily based on extrapolating limited information from other small sections of these lines.
• The Russian Federation deployed 33 strike drones in several groups from the north, southeast, and south directions, primarily targeting the grain infrastructure in the Odesa region.
• The commander of the Russian “Center” Operational Group (operating on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line), Lieutenant General A. Mordvichev and the commander of the 8th Army forces (operating near Bakhmut and on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line), Lieutenant General G. Alashkin, have been promoted to the rank of Colonel General.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 39 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Synkivka, Novoyehorivka, and Novoselivske. The enemy command is observing an operational pause following the failure near Novoyehorivka and is restoring the combat readiness of previously defeated units for further attacks.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces reclaimed positions in the Serebryansk Forest area, near Shyplivka, and launched an attack near Kyslivka and Dibrova.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced to the south of Bakhmut, advanced to the northwest of Klishchiivka, and attacked near Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, and Zaliznyanske.
• The enemy attacked near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Klishchiivka, but did not achieve success.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Avdiivka, Keramik, and Novokalynove, as well as in the Maryinka and Krasnohorivka areas.
• Zaporizhzhia direction:
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping advanced further to the northwest and west of Verbove, to the south of Robotyne. They attempted to breach the Russian defense to the east of Novoprokopivka, resumed the offensive in the area of Kamianske, and achieved success in the direction of Luhove. They expanded their control along a portion of the southern bank of the Yanchokrak River.
  • The “Tavriya” light infantry units advanced past Russian defensive positions, which run to the northwest of Verbove and north of Solodka Balka. Combat engagements are already ongoing at these positions, but Ukrainian forces have not yet broken through them.
  • To the east of Novoprokopivka, battles continue at the first position of the enemy’s main defense line in the defensive sector of the 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the enemy’s Territorial Troops and the 210th Motorized Rifle Regiment.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Units of the 40th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet and the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army repelled an assault near Novomayorske. The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping launched an attack near Urozhaine and repelled an enemy counterattack south of Prechystivka.
• Kherson direction: The Defense Forces continue limited activity on the islands in the delta of the Dnipro River. They landed two assault groups comprising approximately 30 personnel, advancing from the northern part of Perevalsky Island. However, the enemy on the left bank of the Dnipro River pushed them back to the northern part of the island.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational maritime zone, there were 9 enemy ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, including 1 carrier of Kalibr cruise missiles. In the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship, and in the Mediterranean Sea, there were 2 enemy ships. The total salvo capability is up to 8 missiles.

Changes in enemy disposition: 

• The 234th and 237th Air Assault Regiments of the 76th Air Assault Division have concentrated in the area of Myrne – Nove – Kharkove – Chervonohirka, 7.5 km north of Tokmak, on both sides of the T0408 Novoprokopivka – Tokmak highway.
• The 387th Motorized Rifle Regiment (Territorial Troops, 44th Airborne Division) has been introduced into battle in the Verbove area.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• Russian forces will attempt to seize the initiative amidst the Defense Forces’ offensive operation by initiating their own offensive operation with the forces of 2-3 armies. Their aim is to advance westward to the Oskil River and establish a buffer zone around the occupied Luhansk Oblast over the next two months.
• On the Berdyansk direction, the enemy has to hold the Pavlivka – Mykilske line as a precondition for disrupting the advance of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping towards Volodymyrivka – Volnovakha.
• The enemy’s command has to reinforce its tactical group on the Nesteryanka-Kopani line (the 234th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division) or replace them with the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 104th Air Assault Regiment.
• The commander of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army will make efforts to reduce the section of a breakthrough by the “Tavria” Operational Command.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 08.09.23 

Personnel – almost 267,540 people (+640);

Tanks – 4,529 (+23);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,726 (+23);

Artillery systems – 5,753 (+31);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 754 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 507 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,264 (+47);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,570 (+29);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,455 (0);

Boats/ships – 19 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 136 towns and villages and 100 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 3 people are reported dead and 11 wounded;
• At night, the Russian forces attacked Odesa Oblasts with groups of Shahed-136/131 strike UAVs. A total of 20 drone launches in the direction of Odesa were recorded. 16 Shahed-136/131 were destroyed over Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts.
• The British government calculated that in two months, Russia, with its attacks on the ports and elevators of Ukraine, reduced Ukraine’s ability to export grain by a third, the British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said.
• On the morning of September 8, Russian troops launched a missile attack on Kryvyi Rih. The administrative building of the police was hit. A policeman died, and three more were taken out from under the rubble in a serious condition. According to the State Emergencies Service, as of 3 p.m. 1 person was confirmed dead and 60 injured. According to preliminary data, the Russian invaders hit Kryvyi Rih with an “Iskander K” cruise missile.
• The Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that in Sumy, the occupiers hit the residential sector with rockets around 05:30 in the morning. As a result of the impact, three people were injured, two of them were rescued from under the rubble. Information about one more injured person emerged later in the day. 
• In the temporarily occupied Crimea, the Russian occupation authorities are compiling lists of graduates from higher educational institutions for military mobilization, according to reports from the partisan movement “ATESH.” The Dzhankoy district is leading in terms of the number of potential conscripts.
• The Ukrainian government successfully returned home nine Ukrainian children, Dmytro Lubinets, the representative of the Verkhovna Rada on human rights, informed. Among them is a boy whom the Russian occupation forces accused of blowing up a bridge. He was held in custody, tortured and questioned for a month. He has now been safely reunited with his mother, stated Lubinets.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent