Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 09.09.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions, the enemy persists in attempting to break through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of Synkivka, Novoyehorivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, and southeast of Dibrova. They seek to regain control over positions in the areas of Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka.

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Tavriya” on the Avdiivka, Maryinka, and Shakhtarsk directions, the Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain the initiative. They persist in applying pressure on the enemy and conducting assault operations.

The Russian military carried out offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka – Donetsk line, in the area of the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and have advanced in some areas.

General conclusion: 

  • The operational situation on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions is getting increasingly acute. The enemy’s offensive efforts on this section of the front have failed to achieve significant success and are aimed at drawing a portion of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ strategic reserves away from more vital areas of the front.
  • Russian troops aim to reach the Oskil River and seize positions near Borova by the beginning of winter 2023-2024.
  • On the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, Russian troops continue to form and train assault units from previously defeated motorized rifle brigades and airborne units.
  • The Russian military command is utilizing communication troops personnel to form assault groups due to recent significant losses. These losses are compelling the enemy’s command to deploy available manpower for combat operations.
  • The number of [the enemy] checkpoints from Melitopol to Dniprorudne decreased from 18 to 3 due to attacks of the “Atesh” partisan movement. A similar situation is observed on other roads.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • 30 combat engagements took place in different directions.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensives near Synkivka, where they attempted to encircle the Ukrainian garrison from the east and west. They also futilely attacked near Petropavlivka and Novoyehorivka, employing units formed from prisoners and private military companies for assault operations. The enemy repelled units of the “Khortytsia” OSG from undefined heights near Novoyehorivka. However, they did not gain control over these positions and suffered losses in the area along the Zherebets River, near Kreminna, and in the Serebryansk Forest.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG attacked near Novoyehorivka, Dibrova, Serebryansk forest, advanced deep into the defense line of the Russian 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army and 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Army.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG continued its offensive actions and achieved partial success, advancing north of Andriivka and Klishchiivka, took control of half of Andriivka, and reached the railway line. They completely liberated Klishchiivka, intensified the offensive along the Klishchiivka – Ozaryanivka line, and attacked near Bakhmut, Vesele, and Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
  • Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Andriivka. They also stormed Zaliznyanske and Kurdyumivka, but did not succeed in any of the directions. 
  • The Russian tactical group consisting of the 137th Air Assault Regiment, 106th Air Assault Division, 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 29th BARS detachment and the “Potok” PMC detachment halted the advance of the “Khortytsia” OSG in the direction of Soledar. A counterattack by the 61st Separate Marines Brigade of the Northern Fleet in the Klishchiivka area was not only repelled by the “Khortytsia” OSG, but the enemy also suffered significant losses and was pushed back beyond the railway.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the Russian assault group of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army captured the positions of the “Khortytsia” OSG unit east of Krasnohorivka. The 150th Motorized Rifle Division unsuccessfully advanced in Maryinka. Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked on the southern approaches to Avdiivka, near Keramik and Novomykhailivka.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG advanced in the area of Spartak and Opytne villages and partly returned control of the “Donetsk” international airport.
  • Zaporizhzhya direction:
    • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Forces of the “Tavriya” OSG repelled Russian attacks south of Prechystivka, and intensified their offensive actions on the Novodonetske-Novomayorske line. Over the course of three days, they conducted artillery preparation for an attack, cleared minefields, and engaged in combat on the northern outskirts of both villages. They captured enemy positions on the northwestern outskirts of Novomayorske and regained control over the industrial zone in Pavlivka.
    • Units of the Russian 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army repelled an attack by an assault group northeast of Mykilske. The enemy also thwarted attempts by units of the “Tavriya” OSG to cross the Shaitanka River. The situation of the 131st Rifle Regiment of Mobilization Reserve of the 1st Army Corps in Novodonetske is critical.
    • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): the forces of the “Tavriya” OSG achieved success south of Robotyne. Marine infantry units of the “Tavriya” OSG crossed the Mokri Yaly river, cleared the outskirts of Zavitne Bazhannia and forced units of the Russian 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade to retreat to the center of the village. Combat continues on the northern and western outskirts of Novoprokopivka, where the Russian 71st and 210-1st Motorized Rifle Regiments are defending.
    • To support counterattacks in the Robotyne area, the enemy has deployed a significant number of S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems in ballistic mode. They have delivered up to 40 strikes with planning bombs FAB-500/UMPK from Su-34 aircraft. The strikes are primarily targeting a logistics route of the “Tavriya” OSG, extending up to 6 km in length.
  • Kherson direction: Russian forces are experiencing significant personnel and equipment losses due to counter-battery actions by the “Tavriya” OSG in Kherson Oblast. This limits their combat capability and forces them to deploy reserves, which are currently concentrated in Crimea. 
  • The enemy continues to respond to raids by units of the “Tavriya” OSG in the delta of the Dnieper River, pushing back their small group from Kozatsky Island. Battles are ongoing on the islands in the delta of the Dnieper River. The “Tavriya” OSG has already established four bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnieper (2 on the northern outskirts of Oleshky, 1 near Kozachi Laheri, 1 near Antonivskyi Bridge), controls the Kinburn Spit under fire, and actively employs the Bayraktar TB-2 UAVs, exploiting the enemy’s weak air defense capabilities in this direction.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 9 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, including 1 cruise missile carrier; 1 in the Sea of Azov; there were 2 Russian ships on combat duty in the Mediterranean. The total salvo is up to 8 Kalibr cruise missiles. 

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • The enemy is deploying forces from the 18th Army to free up the 49th Army for operations on the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • Russian forces will attempt to seize the initiative amidst the Defense Forces’ offensive operation by initiating their own offensive operation with the forces of 2-3 armies. Their aim is to advance westward to the Oskil River and establish a buffer zone around the occupied Luhansk Oblast over the next two months.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, the enemy has to hold the Pavlivka – Mykilske line as a precondition for disrupting the advance of the “Tavriya” OSG towards Volodymyrivka – Volnovakha.
  • The enemy’s command has to reinforce its tactical group on the Nesteryanka-Kopani line (the 234th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division) or replace them with the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 104th Air Assault Regiment.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 09.09.23 

Personnel – almost 268,140 people (+600);

Tanks – 4,544 (+15);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,739 (+13);

Artillery systems – 5,789 (+36);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 757 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 508 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,298 (+34);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,588 (+18);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,455 (0);

Boats/ships – 19 (0).


  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 8 regions of Ukraine. 135 towns and villages and 185 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons.
  • In Kherson Oblast, three people were killed, and eight more were injured due to Russian aggression. Four residents of Donetsk Oblast were killed, and seven more people were injured. One person was injured in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • As of the morning of September 9, 2023, according to the official information of juvenile prosecutors, 503 children died and more than 1,122 sustained injuries of various degrees of severity.
  • Due to Russian aggression, 400 educational institutions in Ukraine were completely destroyed, and more than 3,000 were damaged, Dmytro Lubinets, the Commissioner of the Verkhovna Rada for Human Rights, reported. 

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