Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 10.09.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions, the enemy persists in attempting to break through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of Synkivka, Novoyehorivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, and southeast of Dibrova. They seek to regain control over positions in the areas of Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka.

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Tavriya” on the Avdiivka, Maryinka, and Shakhtarsk directions, the Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain the initiative. They persist in applying pressure on the enemy and conducting assault operations.

The Russian forces carried out offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka – Donetsk line, in the area of the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and have advanced in some areas.

General conclusion: 

  • In the area of Pryiutne, Russian forces operate in two main directions – along the road from Pryiutne to Novodarivka and in the direction of Rivnopil ponds;
  • The adversary has completed the relocation of their aviation from Belarusian airfields. The Russian Aerospace Forces are experiencing a noticeable shortage of operational aircraft.
  • Active defense remains the primary tactic of Russian units, but their actions are hindered by the lack of artillery capable of quick maneuvering.
  • The Air Force of Ukrainian Defense Forces reduced the number of cruise missile strikes, which is explained by a reduction in their supplies by the Allies due to a certain depletion of reserves.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • 30 combat engagements took place in different directions.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have advanced near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Novoyehorivka. They captured five Ukrainian positions south of Serhiyivka, repelled three attacks by the “Khortytsia” OSG towards Kovalivka, and six attacks near Torske and in the Serebryansk Forest area. The Russian advance from Serhiyivka and Kovalivka in the western and southwestern directions is ongoing. It is here that the enemy is losing the majority of tanks and armored fighting vehicles.
  • “Khortytsia” OSG troops repelled Russian attacks near Synkivka, Novoyehorivka, Berestove and southeast of Dibrova.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the troops of the “Khortytsia” OSG achieved success south of Klishchiivka and ultimately pushed the Russian troops out of Andriivka. Russian forces are defending along the line of railway tracks to the east of Andriivka and Klishchiivka.
  • Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to break through the Ukrainian positions near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and regain the lost positions near Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka. The counterattack of the 61st Separate Marines Brigade of the Northern Fleet was repulsed by the fire of the 26th Artillery Brigade of the “Khortytsia” OSG, using DCIPM shells and was ultimately defeated by the counterattack of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces made 10 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge the “Khortytsia” OSG troops from positions near Avdiivka and Maryinka. They conducted assaults near Krasnohorivka and Novokalynove, attacked near Novomykhailivka and on the southern approaches to Avdiivka, but did not succeed.
  • Zaporizhzhia direction:
    • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): “Tavriya” OSG forces advanced to the northwest of Novomayorske, advanced near Novodonetske and northeast of Novomayorske, crossed the Shaitanka River, and wedged up to 1 km into the enemy’s defense between these two villages, disrupting rocade communication between them at least in the tactical zone.
    • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): The enemycounterattacked near Pryiutne and advanced 3 km to the Hrusheva ravine with the forces of the 247th Air Assault Regiment, the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment.
    • “Tavriya” OSG troops advanced to the northeast and east of Novoprokopivka, west of Verbove, and south of Robotyne.
  • Kherson direction: In the eastern part of Oleshkivsky Island, a group of 12 personnel from the “Tavriya” OSG landed, and a group of 10 personnel landed near Prydniprovsk.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 10 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea; 1 in the Sea of Azov; there were 2 Russian ships on combat duty in the Mediterranean. 
  • Russia has deployed tactical aviation towards Snake Island, periodically releasing guided air bombs on the area. This constitutes a sustained effort to exert pressure on civilian navigation, despite Ukraine’s proposal for a humanitarian corridor, which has already been utilized by four vessels. The adversary is attempting to persuade shipowners of an aerial threat, stated Nataliya Humenyuk, the head of the United Coordination Press Center of the Defense Forces of the South.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • The Russian 1152nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops is deployed in the Novoprokopivka area. The 1466th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops is moving to the Novomayorske area.

Escalation indicators:

  • Russian artillery uses Chinese-made 152 mm ammunition in the Berdyansk direction.
  • On the Tokmak direction, the Russian military concentrated 4 divisions of Airborne Troops: the 7th and 76th Air Assault Divisions and the 44th and 104th Airborne Divisions.
  • NATO Air Force began patrolling the Black Sea Grain Corridor with EF-2000 Typhoon fighters.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • On the Berdyansk direction, the enemy has to hold the Pavlivka – Mykilske line as a precondition for disrupting the advance of the “Tavriya” OSG towards Volodymyrivka – Volnovakha;
  • The [enemy’s] use of “Kinzhal” missiles against objects protected by the Patriot PAC-2/3 air defense system has proven to be ineffective. It is anticipated that MiG-31 aircraft armed with X-47 missiles will be deployed on the southern flank to hit targets in Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Mykolaiv.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.09.23 

Personnel – almost 268,630 people (+490);

Tanks – 4,554 (+10);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,755 (+16);

Artillery systems – 5,811 (+22);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 760 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 509 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,338 (+40);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,593 (+5);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,455 (0);

Boats/ships – 19 (0).


  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 127 towns and villages and 35 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 4 people are reported dead, and 11 are reported injured;
  • In Kyiv Oblast, an infrastructure object, eight private houses, a school, a kindergarten and a village council were damaged due to a night attack by Russian drones. Four people were injured, one of them was hospitalized. In Kyiv, as a result of falling UAV debris, cars and road surfaces were damaged in several areas. An apartment in a high-rise building was also damaged.
  • In total, in the de-occupied Kherson Oblast, sappers surveyed more than 86,000 hectares of territory. They discovered and neutralized almost 97,000 explosive objects, the Kherson Oblast Military Administration reported.
  • According to the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, there is a challenge with the existing international law, as it currently does not provide a framework for prosecuting the Russian leadership for crimes of aggression. “We must choose between lawlessness and justice. Which means, we must follow the path of justice and update international law,” Kuleba emphasized.
  • The organization Road2Relief reported that on the morning of September 9, four members of its team, who went from Slovyansk to Ivanivske in the direction of Bakhmut came under fire. Their car was fired upon by Russian troops near Chasiv Yar. As a result of a direct hit, the vehicle overturned and caught fire. Two volunteers, a Canadian and a Spaniard, died, while the other two were hospitalized with severe injuries.
  • During the pseudo-elections in Kherson Oblast, the occupation authorities engage in the robbery of the local population. Collaborators enter people’s homes, attempting to force residents into voting. While a representative from this “group” engages in conversations with residents, two or three individuals in uniform, armed with weapons, confiscate electronic devices, falsely asserting that it is a “contribution to the work” of the Kherson Oblast Electoral Commission, reports the “Yellow Ribbon” resistance movement.
  • September 10 marks the final “single voting day” out of ten in the so-called “LPR”.  During this “voting” process, individuals are compelled to select candidates at a gunpoint, with armed law enforcement officers accompanying commission members. More than 800 such mobile polling stations move around the occupied Oblast, Luhansk Oblast Military Administration (OMA) said. Everyone who came to participate in the “voting” is searched at the stationary precincts; armed men put pressure on people, OMA adds. 

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