Russia’s war on Ukraine. 11.09.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions, the enemy persists in attempting to break through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of Synkivka, Novoyehorivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, and southeast of Dibrova. They seek to regain control over positions in the areas of Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka.

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Tavriya” on the Avdiivka, Maryinka, and Shakhtarsk directions, the Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain the initiative. They persist in applying pressure on the enemy and conducting assault operations.

The Russian forces carried out offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka – Donetsk line, in the area of the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and have advanced in some areas.

The adversary struck the Ukrainian military arsenal in the Rokytne district of the Kyiv Oblast with drones.

General conclusion:

• The intensity of combat near Robotyne has noticeably decreased.
• The Russian command has returned the 247th Air Assault Regiment to the main forces of the 7th Air Assault Division in the Tokmak direction. This maneuver suggests that they do not consider the area near Pryiutne as promising for a deep flanking maneuver on the right flank of the tactical group of the “Tavriya” OSG, which holds Staromykhailivka. The concentration of the 7th Air Assault Division on the right flank of the enemy grouping is an attempt to create favorable conditions for holding the Pryiutne-Zavitne Bazhannia line.
• The enemy’s forces face significant issues with the compatibility of their communication equipment. There is a shortage of laser rangefinders-target designators for the use of high-precision ammunition. The Russian MLRS “Tornado-S” is significantly affected by the jamming equipment of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and is outperformed by the HIMARS MLRS. These problems are more characteristic of irregular and paramilitary formations acting on the enemy’s side.
• The Russian military command does not handle the proper evacuation of the KIA and WIA, which significantly impacts the morale and psychological state of personnel and often leads to a refusal to carry out combat tasks.
• Changes in weather conditions will influence the development of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ offensive and may slow it down.

Change in the line of contact (LoC): 

• There were 30 combat engagements in various directions.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Novoyehorivka, Serebryanka, and towards Kyslivka, but were unable to make progress. There were combat engagements near Novoselivske, Karmazynivka, and in the woods west of Kreminna.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces attacked near Kuzemivka and Dibrova, and advanced to the south of Kreminna.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG achieved success near Klishchiivka, where the 2nd battalion of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade displaced Russian forces from their positions. Battles are ongoing near Andriivka, which the forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG bypassed north and south, and Kurdyumivka. In the defensive sector of the Russian 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade, the advanced units of the “Khortytsia” OSG are actively moving along the railway line towards Zelenopillia and Kurdyumivka, completely collapsing the enemy’s defense toward the railway in the section between Andriivka and Kurdyumivka (the defensive sector of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.)
• Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Berestove, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and Kurdyumivka. They improved their positions near Berkhivsky Reservoir. The enemy’s attempt to counterattack with the forces of the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade, northwest of Klishchiivka in the direction of the battalion defense area held by the “Khortytsia” OSG, failed. The enemy’s command has two battalions of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps, the 217th Parachute Airborne Regiment, part of the forces of the 80th Tank Regiment, with the rest of the reserves already deployed into battle.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Keramik, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, and Maryinka.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG, capitalizing on the ineffective withdrawal maneuver of enemy units from the 1439th Motorized Rifle Regiment of Territorial Troops and the 13th Separate Assault Battalion of the 1st Army Corps, in conjunction with the impact of [the enemy’s] artillery fire on their own retreating forces, successfully seized positions in Opytne, and are currently consolidating their control. There are ongoing battles in the village. In the area on the eastern outskirts of Pervomaiske, the enemy’s 111 Motorized Rifle Regiment was also forced to retreat from the occupied positions.
• Zaporizhzhia Direction:
  • Berdyansk Direction (Velyka Novosilka): The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG continued attacks on the Novodonetske-Novomayorske line, including three nighttime assaults. They expanded their foothold on the Shaitanka River near Novomayorske. Positional battles are ongoing near Urozhaine and Staromayorske.
  • The enemy’s 349th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade are expanding their area of control near Pryiutne, attempting to displace the units of the “Tavriya” OSG west of the Pryiutne-Novodarivka road at any cost. They counterattacked near Novomayorske but were forced to retreat: units of the 131st Rifle Regiment of the Mobilization Reserve and the 1466th Motorized Rifle Regiment of Territorial Troops withdrew from the northern part of the settlement and are now attempting to hold its central and southern parts.
  • Tokmak Direction (Robotyne): The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG achieved success to the east of Novoprokopivka, continue their advance in the area of Robotyne, and attacked on the Robotyne-Verbove line. They consolidated their positions on the northwestern outskirts of Verbove, and advanced near Novoprokopivka and Kopani. The salient between Robotyne and Verbove has expanded to 10 km, with tactical groups deployed on the flanks, operating very effectively. They forced the enemy to concentrate their reserves in this section, pulling them away from other attacked sectors.
  • Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Robotyne, counterattacked to the northwest of Verbove, and regained some previously lost positions. The enemy’s 201st, 71st, and 210th Motorized Rifle Regiments are attempting to counterattack against units of the “Tavriya” OSG, which have penetrated into their first position of the main defense line east of Novoprokopivka. They attacked along the Novodanylivka-Novoprokopivka road towards the western outskirts of Robotyne, but without success.
• Kherson Direction: The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG continue to conduct counter-battery combat, destroy supply depots, and successfully strike at the enemy’s rear areas.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, there were  6 enemy ships on combat duty; in the Azov Sea – 1 enemy ship; in the Mediterranean Sea – 2 enemy ships.

Change in the line of contact (LoC): 

• The Russian military has concentrated over 420,000 servicemen on the occupied territory of Ukraine, not counting the Russian National Guard and other military units and structures.
• The Russian 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division has been moved from the Berdyansk direction and is deploying in fortified positions northeast of Verbove. As a result, the 7th Air Assault Division has completed its concentration on the right flank of the Russian grouping.
• Units of the 1152nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of Territorial Troops are engaged in battle on the northern outskirts of Novoprokopivka, densifying the combat formations of the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the enemy.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the 1st Army Corps maintains the 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in operational reserve.

Escalation indicators:

• Due to the enemy’s catastrophic losses, it is expected that in the near future, there will be a mass forced mobilization of the population in the Russian Federation and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. According to various estimates, the figures for this mobilization may range from 400,000 to 700,000 people. This time, it is planned to call up approximately 40,000 residents of the Chechen Republic, who are likely to be used as “barrage detachments” behind Russian forces.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The [enemy’s] use of “Kinzhal” missiles against objects protected by the Patriot PAC-2/3 air defense system has proven to be ineffective. It is anticipated that MiG-31 aircraft armed with X-47 missiles will be deployed on the southern flank to hit targets in Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Mykolaiv.
• The enemy’s command will be forced to deploy additional units, either the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet or the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, to eliminate the bridgehead of the “Tavriya” OSG on the Shaitanka River.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.09.23

Personnel – almost 269,210   people (+580);

Tanks – 4,560 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,767 (+12);

Artillery systems – 5,839 (+28);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 760 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 512 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,370 (+32);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,628 (+35);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,455 (0);

Boats/ships – 19 (0).

Humanitarian:

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine. 106 towns and villages and 28 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons.
• On the night of September 10-11, the Ukrainian Air Force destroyed 12 of the 12 Shahed drones launched by Russia in the direction of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, as well as one UAV of an unknown type, said the spokesman of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuriy Ignat.
• Law enforcement officers have encountered difficulties in identifying 57 of the victims found in a mass burial on the outskirts of Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast, according to Dmytro Chubenko, spokesman for the Kharkiv regional prosecutor’s office. As for another 58 individuals, their biographical details have been established; however, the absence of relatives hinders the possibility of conducting DNA examinations.
• Upon examination of the exhumed bodies, experts discovered gunshot wounds in 15 victims, explosive injuries in 87 cases, and signs of torture in at least 15 individuals (in particular, they were found with their hands tied, ropes around their necks). 23 cases showed fractures in the jaws, head bones, hands, and ribs, Chubenko added.
• In the occupied town of Henichesk, located in Kherson Oblast, more votes were recorded in the Russian “elections” than the actual population residing there, as reported by the Kherson publication “Most”. This information is supported by a document released by the Russian Central Election Commission. According to the document, the illegitimate “local self-government body” in Henichesk was “elected” with 23,678 votes. However, as per the population census of 2001, only 21,793 people were living in Henichesk at that time. Since then, the population in Henichesk did not grow, and due to the great war, it seriously decreased.
• The Russian occupation authorities are attempting to establish an information blackout, aiming to exert control over every information source within the occupied territories, stated Ivan Fedorov, the duly elected Mayor of Melitopol. One of their tactics involves closely monitoring communications and internet access. Although they failed to rewire the towers of a Ukrainian mobile operator, they are currently erecting new mobile communication towers on a large scale. All communications systems established by Russia are 100% wiretapped. Additionally, they have nearly prohibited VPN usage, one of the few avenues to access objective information in the temporarily occupied territories, as the Russian “Internet” does not include platforms like Google or Facebook, explained Fedorov.
• In the temporarily occupied Crimea, Internet providers received an order from the Russian FSB  to report on customers who use VPN services, Ukrinform reports with a reference to the Crimean Wind Telegram channel.
• According to a poll conducted by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, in August 2023, more than half of the respondents (55%) concurred that foreign partners should extend military aid to Ukraine on the condition of an effective fight against corruption.

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