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Russia’s war on Ukraine. 12.09.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions, the enemy persists in attempting to break through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Tavriya” on the Avdiivka, Maryinka, and Shakhtarsk directions, the Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain the initiative. They persist in applying pressure on the enemy and conducting assault operations.

The Russian forces carried out offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka – Donetsk line, in the area of the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and have advanced in some areas.

General conclusion: 

  • The enemy persists in focusing on capturing Synkivka, while also holding their positions around Novoyehorivka. They are working to contain the Ukrainian Defensive Forces in the Serebryansk Forest. Additionally, they are striving to maintain their defense along the Bakhmut-Kurdyumivka line and to contain the breach created by the “Khortytsia” OSG in the Opytne and Spartak areas.
  • The enemy’s command lacks the resources to simultaneously conduct combat operations along the Pryiutne-Zavitne Bazhannia-Novodonetske line.
  • The command of the Russian 58th Army is focused on the retention of control over Novoprokopivka. Simultaneously, they are preparing for counterattacks on the flanks of the “Tavriya” OSG penetration sector in the Nesteryanka-Kopani and Novopokrovka-Novofedorivka areas.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 30 combat engagements in various directions.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces achieved success near the forest belt northeast of Synkivka and conducted an unsuccessful advance near Berestove, Novoselivske, Novoyehorivka, and Kreminna. They repelled attacks by the “Khortytsia” OSG units west of Dibrova.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG focuses on offensives in the area of the Serebryansk Forest near Torske.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG advanced near Klishchiivka and Andriivka and succeeded near Predtechyne, Kurdyumivka, and Dachne.
  • Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks near Zaliznyanske, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, and Berkhivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces advanced towards Spartak. They control a part of Opytne, although the situation remains unstable and combat engagements continue. Russian forces on this front lack manpower, competent commanders, effective assault tactics, and counter-battery capabilities.
  • Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Keramik, Avdiivka, Severne, Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, and Novomykhailivka.
  • On the Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka), the “Tavriya” OSG achieved success near Novomayorske, north of Pryutne, and near Novodonetske. 
  • Russian forces repelled the lost positions north of Pryutne near Hrusheva Ravine and launched a counterattack near Novomayorske with the forces of the 40th Separate Marines Brigade.
  • On the Tokmak Direction (Robotyne): the “Tavriya” OSG succeeded south of Robotyne and west of Verbove. They attempted to advance towards Novoprokopivka. 
  • Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Novodanylivka and Robotyne, and counterattacked near Novofedorivka.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational maritime zone, there were 10 enemy ships on combat duty, including 2 carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles (total salvo – 16 Kalibr missiles). In the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship, and in the Mediterranean Sea, there was also 1 enemy ship.
  • Units of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense have regained control over gas extraction drilling platforms near the coast of Crimea.

Change in enemy disposition:

  • The enemy’s 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army of the Western Military District is engaging in combat operations near Kreminna.
  • On the western outskirts of Klishchiivka, the “Akhmat” detachment, the 2nd Army Corps military units and the 346th Separate SOF Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces are operating. The “Yenisei” detachment from the “Cassack” Brigade “Siberia” of the Volunteer Assault Corps (a Russian paramilitary formation) has been noted appearing on the Bakhmut direction.
  • The 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiment of Territorial Troops has now been equipped with T-55 tanks.

Escalation indicators:

  • During the missile and aviation strike, the enemy employed the anti-radiolocation missiles Kh-31P. 
  • Russian military forces intend to mobilize over 400,000 citizens by the end of 2023.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The enemy’s command will be compelled to deploy additional units from the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet or the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade to eliminate the bridgehead of the “Tavriya” OSG on the Shaitanka River.
  • The enemy’s command will attempt to reinforce its grouping on the Zaporizhzhia direction by redeploying combat-ready units and formations from the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Kherson directions, where they will be replaced by forces from the 25th Army (north) and the 18th Army (south).

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.09.23 

Personnel – almost 269,760 people (+550);

Tanks – 4,568 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,778 (+11);

Artillery systems – 5,872 (+33);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 764 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 515 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,413 (+43);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,645 (+17);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,455 (0);

Boats/ships – 19 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine. 96 towns and villages and 71 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 2 people are reported dead, and 6 are reported injured;
  • From September 1 to 10, the UN recorded 292 cases of death or injury among the civilian population in Ukraine.
  • According to childrenofwar.gov.ua, as of September 12, 2023, 1,239 children are considered missing in Ukraine, and 17,487 have been found. Since the beginning of the full-scale war, 10,153 Ukrainian children have been orphaned. 
  • According to a Russian media report, as cited by the Ukrainian journalist and blogger Denis Kazanskiy, Russian authorities in Mariupol are implementing a policy of constructing new houses on the sites of the ruined ones and selling apartments to Russian citizens rather than permitting local residents who previously resided in the destroyed homes to move in. The locals are told they do not possess the right to reside there, and those with at least some other property are told they are not entitled to any compensation for the ruined housing. According to Kazanskiy, the situation is so outrageous that even a Russian TV channel made a story about it. 

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