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Russia’s war on Ukraine. 23.09.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Minkivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, and Hryhorivka. The enemy attempted to regain lost ground in the Andriivka area but was unsuccessful. The Defense Forces continue their assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their positions on the achieved frontlines.

In the operational zone of the Tavriya OSG on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled enemy attacks in the Avdiivka and Severne areas. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive operations in the Maryinka and Krasnohorivka areas. Over the past day, they made 12 unsuccessful attempts to displace Ukrainian units from their positions.

On the Zaporizhzhia direction, enemy attacks in the areas of Robotyne and Verbove ended with significant losses for them in both personnel and equipment. Ukrainian defenders continue to hold the defense on the occupied frontlines, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. On the Melitopol direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operation, causing significant losses to the Russian forces in both personnel and equipment, wearing down the enemy along the entire front line and forcing them to retreat from their positions.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the area of Kupyansk, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, in the western part of Donetsk Oblast. They advanced towards the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.

General conclusion: 

  • Russian forces are more actively employing artillery and aviation in Luhansk Oblast operations to conserve manpower and equipment.
  • The Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation have increased the intensity of their operations over the past week, attempting to strike at the advanced positions and logistics of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy is depleting its human resources with poorly organized counterattacks faster than it receives reinforcements, and will soon face the impossibility of holding its positions.
  • The withdrawal of Tavriya OSG units from Novomayorske is explained by the enemy’s advantage in the air; their aviation operates from airfields near this operational direction.
  • The Tavriya OSG forces’ slow advancement pace on the Tokmak direction is due to the formidable system of defensive lines, engineering obstacles, and the numerous enemy forces covering them.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):   

  • There were 30 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the forces of the Khortytsia OSG launched attacks near Hryhorivka, Novoyehorivka, in the area of Serebryansk Forest, and Novoselivske, where they regained previously lost positions.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the forces of the Khortytsia OSG advanced to the southeast of Klishchiivka, made progress in the area of Andriivka, and continue their offensive near Ozaryanivka.
  • Russian forces took up defensive positions along the railway, and conducted unsuccessful attacks near Mynkivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, and Andriivka. The situation for the enemy is particularly challenging in the Klishchiivka-Kurdyumivka line, especially near Andriivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the forces of the Tavriya OSG continued to defend against enemy attacks, inflicting losses on the enemy’s personnel and equipment. They repelled attacks near Severne, Krasnohorivka, and Maryinka.
  • The enemy repelled four Ukrainian attacks near Vodyane and Maryinka and captured one ventilation shaft of the Trudovska mine.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): The forces of the Tavriya OSG repelled Russian attacks near Mykilske and launched an attack near Pryiutne.
  • Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack near Zavitne Bazhannia, advanced along the Mokri Yaly river valley, counterattacked from Novodonetske and Novomayorske, and made progress in the area between these villages.
  • The enemy’s engineering units transported “dragon’s teeth” obstacles towards Nikolske with the aim of constructing a defensive area to protect the logistics line towards the occupied Crimea.
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): The forces of the Tavriya OSG have advanced north of Novoprokopivka and are currently located approximately 800 meters from the outskirts of the village. They attempted to advance near Verbove and repelled Russian assaults near Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne.
  • The 387th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the enemy’s 44th Airborne Division significantly increased the density of minefields in the Verbove area.
  • Both sides actively employ artillery and drones in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Kherson direction: Chechen forces and Russian National Guard units have arrived in the occupied city of Kherson to prevent the desertion of Russian troops.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational zone, 4 enemy ships were on combat duty, including 1 Kalibr cruise carrier with a total of 8 missiles. In the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship, and in the Mediterranean Sea, there was 1 enemy ship.
  • The air-launched cruise missiles Storm Shadow targeted the headquarters building of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy. Preliminary information suggests the elimination of the enemy’s Black Sea Fleet commander, Admiral Osipov, along with a group of senior officers who were present at the meeting during the strike.
  • During yesterday’s strike on the airfield near Saki, three Russian Su-24 bombers and a Pantsir-S air defense missile system were affected.

Change in the enemy’s disposition:

  • Units of the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army of the Russian Eastern Military District and Chechen units “Akhmat” are operating near Kurdyumivka.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The enemy’s command has amassed a force of up to 110,000 personnel on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions. A large-scale offensive is anticipated to commence on the 26th-27th of September. The objective of this offensive may be to displace the forces of the Khortytsia OSG from the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Units of the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Army will be deployed in the direction of Dibrova – Serebryansk Forest, and units of the 36th Motorized Rifle Regiment will be deployed west of the Chervonopopivka – Zhytlivka line in the general direction of Novosadove or Terny.
  • The enemy’s desperate counterattacks, leading to the expenditure of all available combat reserves, may conceal the enemy’s preparations for an offensive (on the Kherson direction, the 18th Army and the 40th Army Corps of are being deployed), or it may be a struggle to gain time for organizing the defense on the main defensive line.
  • The enemy’s retreat from the first defensive line on the Tokmak direction is only a matter of time. The enemy lacks combat-ready forces to organize the defense on the main line. One should not expect an organized withdrawal of enemy forces from the first defensive line.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 23.09.23 

Personnel – almost 275,460 people (+510);

Tanks – 4,655 (+11);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,912 (+21);

Artillery systems – 6,210 (+33);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 789 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 530 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,716 (+26);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,867 (+9);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,518 (+1);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 11 regions of Ukraine. 144 towns and villages and 92 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. 
  • Due to the full-scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation, 504 Ukrainian children have lost their lives, and 1,125 have been injured, according to the Office of the Prosecutor General. These figures are not final. Work is ongoing to establish them in areas of combat, temporarily occupied, and liberated territories.
  • The occupying “authorities” of Crimea, under the pretext of “evacuating the population,” plan to transport cultural treasures from museums in Sevastopol to the territory of the Russian Federation. On the website of the so-called “Ministry of Emergency Situations,” they posted a reminder for rescuers that one of their tasks is the “evacuation not only of the population but also of cultural treasures.”

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