Russia’s war on Ukraine. 24.09.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”  on the Lyman direction, the Defense Forces effectively repelled enemy attacks near Bilohorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy attempted to regain lost ground near Klishchiivka but was unsuccessful. The Defense Forces continue their assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their achieved positions.

In the operational zone of the Tavriya OSG on the Avdiivka direction, the Defense Forces are successfully holding the defense on the occupied lines and repelled enemy attacks in the Avdiivka area. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy’s unsuccessful offensive actions in the Maryinka and Pobieda areas continue. Over the past day, they made more than 10 unsuccessful attempts to displace Ukrainian units from their positions. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain the defense on their positions. On the Melitopol direction, the Defense Forces continue their offensive operation, particularly in the Verbove area, displacing the enemy from the occupied positions and consolidating on the achieved lines.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations at the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, at the Avdiivka – Donetsk line, in the west of Donetsk Oblast, in the area of the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, but did not achieve any successes.

General conclusion: 

• Russian forces on the Lyman direction have reduced the intensity of artillery fire due to the personnel rotation.
• The recent liberation of Klishchiivka and Andriivka allows the “Khortytsia” OSG to strike at Russian rear positions and elements of the command and control system.
• The pace and intensity of Russian offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line have significantly decreased in recent weeks, as Russian forces continue to regroup and rotate personnel.
• The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG breached Russian field fortifications west of Verbove, but have not overcome all the prepared defensive positions in this area. They are deepening their penetration and storming Novoprokopivka.
• The simultaneous advance of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Bakhmut and the south of Ukraine hinders Russia’s long-term efforts to form new military organizational structures. This is due to the fact that the Russian military command is relocating fresh reserves to the operational zones of its groupings in order to support defensive operations.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):   

• There were 20 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked near Novoyehorivka and continued to fortify their positions near Synkivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks on Kurdyumivka and unsuccessfully attacked near Minkivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. They are currently engaged in intense battles on the heights on the northern flank of Bakhmut, extending towards the eastern outskirts of Berkhivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the forces of the “Tavriya” OSG repelled Russian assaults near Avdiivka, Severne, Maryinka, Pobieda, and Krasnohorivka.
• Russian forces continued to attack Maryinka and renewed their advance on the approaches to Krasnohorivka.
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Russian forces attacked the positions of the “Tavriya” OSG from the direction of Mykilske but did not make any progress. They regained previously lost positions in the Velyka Novosilka area, and counterattacked near Novodonetske and Novomayorske. 
• The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG launched an attack west of Staromayorske.
• On the Tokmak direction (Robotyne): the forces of the “Tavriya” OSG have advanced north of Novoprokopivka, displacing Russian forces from positions near Verbove, and have achieved a breakthrough on the left flank of Verbove. The pace of the Ukrainian forces’ advance in the breakthrough area remains unclear.
• Russian forces attacked near Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne and deployed “Storm-Z” units in attempt to retake positions near Robotyne.
• In the Black Sea-Azov maritime operational zone, 2 enemy ships were on combat duty, including 1 carrier of the Kalibr cruise missile, with a total salvo of 8 missiles; in the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship; in the Mediterranean Sea, there was 1 enemy ship.

Change in the enemy’s disposition:

• On the Berdyansk direction, the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the Russian 5th Army is deployed.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The enemy’s command has amassed a force of up to 110,000 personnel on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions. A large-scale offensive is anticipated to commence on the 26th-27th of September. The objective of this offensive may be to displace the forces of the Khortytsia OSG from the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Units of the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Army will be deployed in the direction of Dibrova – Serebryansk Forest, and units of the 36th Motorized Rifle Regiment will be deployed west of the Chervonopopivka – Zhytlivka line in the general direction of Novosadove or Terny.
• The enemy’s desperate counterattacks, leading to the expenditure of all available combat reserves, may conceal the enemy’s preparations for an offensive (on the Kherson direction, the 18th Army and the 40th Army Corps of are being deployed), or it may be a struggle to gain time for organizing the defense on the main defensive line.
• The enemy’s retreat from the first defensive line on the Tokmak direction is only a matter of time. The enemy lacks combat-ready forces to organize the defense on the main line. One should not expect an organized withdrawal of enemy forces from the first defensive line.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 24.09.23 

Personnel – almost 275,850 people (+390);

Tanks – 4,662 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,914 (+2);

Artillery systems – 6,233 (+23);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 789 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 531 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,734 (+18);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,888 (+21);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,518 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine. 153 towns and villages and 85 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. 

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