Russia’s war on Ukraine. 28.09.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia,” on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, the enemy did not conduct offensive (assault) actions. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders successfully repelled enemy attacks in the Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka areas.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack near Pervomaiske. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Maryinka, where they made 13 failed attempts in the past day to displace Ukrainian units from their positions. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled an enemy attack in the Rivnopil area. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy attempted to regain lost ground in the Robotyne area, but without success. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol direction and advance (assault) actions on the Bakhmut direction, causing significant losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and made advances in some areas.

General conclusion: 

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces’ activity has slightly decreased near Urozhaine and Staromayorske.
• The Russian 108th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division retreated from Verbove.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 26 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked in the area of Serebryansk Forest and destroyed two bridges over the Oskil River. The recently formed Russian 25th Army (commander – Major General Andriy Serytskyi) concentrates on the Kreminna area instead of the Kupyansk area.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces conducted offensive operations south of Kreminna, launching attacks near Dibrova, Hryhorivka, and Spirne.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces made slight progress east of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, achieved success in the direction of Klishchiivka, Odradivka, and Shumy, and are holding the defense of recently recaptured positions. They repelled an enemy attack near Hryhorivka.
• Russian forces repelled an attack by units of the “Khortytsia” OSG between Zaliznyanske and Orikhovo-Vasylivka, near Berkhivka. They counterattacked near Klishchiivka and Andriivka, attempting to regain lost positions near Bakhmut. Up to 50,000 enemy personnel have been concentrated in this direction.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces made unsuccessful attacks near Severne and Maryinka and launched an attack near Novomykhailivka.
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks north of Pryiutne, near Staromayorske, Novodonetske, and Marfopil. Heavy fighting continues near Vuhledar.
• The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Rivnopil and south of Novodarivka.
• Tokmak direction (Robotyne): The “Tavriya” OSG forces continued their counteroffensive operations in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and reached the trench line west of Verbove. They have already cleared minefields and anti-tank fortifications known as the “Dragon’s Teeth” on the Robotyne-Verbove line.
• Russian forces continued to repel Ukrainian attacks near Verbove. The decision to redeploy the 106th Air Assault Division from Bakhmut to the Tokmak direction has been canceled by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, there were 2 enemy ships on combat duty; in the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship; and in the Mediterranean Sea, there was 1 enemy ship.

Change in the enemy’s disposition:

• Units of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division (Division Commander – Colonel Zulfat Nigmatzyanov), 31st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division (Commander – Colonel Roman Mustafin), and the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Army of the Russian Eastern Military District are at the defense stance west of Sieverodonetsk and Kreminna.
• Troops of the 41st Army of the Russian Central Military District have commenced a gradual redeployment from the Kupyansk direction to the south of Ukraine.
• On the Robotyne-Verbove line, “volunteer” units “Timer” from the Republic of Tatarstan, “Alania” and “Storm Ossetia” from North Ossetia are deployed.

Escalation indicators:

• The concentration of the enemy’s 25th Army continues on the Lyman direction.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• Units of the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Army will be deployed in the direction of Dibrova – Serebryansk Forest, and units of the 36th Motorized Rifle Regiment will be deployed west of the Chervonopopivka – Zhytlivka line in the general direction of Novosadove or Terny.
• Units of the enemy’s 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, along with a separate assault battalion “Pyatnashka”, with the support of the 87th Rifle Regiment of the mobilization reserve, will try to push back the advance units of the “Tavriya” OSG from the area west of Pesky and break through to Nevelske.
• The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG may achieve a significant operational breakthrough on the southern front line if they maintain the necessary level of combat readiness and the enemy does not concentrate the required reserves on this direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 28.09.23 

Personnel – almost 277,320 people (+330);

Tanks – 4,679 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,962 (+12);

Artillery systems – 6,375 (+38);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 793 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 535 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,815 (+23);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,957 (+9);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,529 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 11 regions of Ukraine. 140 towns and villages and 106 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of civilian casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night, the enemy launched an attack on Ukraine using 44 “Shahed” drones. Of these, 34 were successfully intercepted by Ukrainian air defense forces.
  • Russian forces once again targeted Odesa and Kirovohrad Oblasts with strike drones during the night. However, Ukrainian air defense forces prevented impacts or destruction. 
  • In Mykolaiv Oblast, drone debris damaged the power line and a utility structure. In total, 22 enemy aerial targets were destroyed over Mykolaiv Oblast: two reconnaissance UAVs of the “Orlan” type and 20 strike UAVs of the “Shahed” type.
• In Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, two enemy kamikaze drones targeted civilian and infrastructure objects.
• The Russians shelled Kherson with artillery. It is known that three women were killed while they were on the street during the enemy attack.
• The Council of EU Ministers has approved the decision to extend the validity of the EU Temporary Protection Directive, which grants Ukrainian refugees the right to legally stay in the territory of EU countries and provides basic social protection, until March 2025.
• Since the beginning of the large-scale Russian aggression, 780 Ukrainians were injured by explosives, of which 251 lost their lives. Among the casualties, 77 were children, and 13 of them did not survive, according to the information provided by the Deputy Chief of the Pyrotechnic Work Organization Department of the State Emergency Service, Mykola Didyk. Since the start of the war, the State Emergency Service has neutralized over 435,000 explosive items. Due to the Russian Federation’s aggression, an estimated 174,000 square kilometers of Ukraine is contaminated with explosive objects, constituting about 30 percent of the country’s total area.

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