Russia’s war on Ukraine. 29.09.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia,” on the Kupyansk and Bakhmut directions, the enemy did not conduct offensive (assault) actions. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defence Forces successfully repelled enemy attacks near Bilohorivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy attempted to regain lost positions south of Avdiivka but was unsuccessful. Additionally, Ukrainian defenders effectively repelled an enemy attack in the Nevelske area. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy’s attempts at advancement in the Maryinka area were futile, having made six unsuccessful attempts in the past day to displace Ukrainian units from their positions. Ukrainian Defense Forces effectively repelled an enemy attack in the Novomykhailivka area. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian defenders successfully thwarted an enemy attack in the Urozhaine area. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy attempted to reclaim lost ground near Chervone but without success. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol direction and offensive (assault) operations on the Bakhmut direction, inflicting losses on Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces have been conducting offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, at the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, near the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. However, they have not achieved confirmed success.

General conclusion: 

• Amidst the diminished intensity of Russian attacks along the Kupyansk front, adversary aviation has surged, executing 21 air strikes, with a focus on areas in close proximity to Siversk and the Serebryansk forestry.
• Russian air forces persist in targeting the rear areas of the “Tavriya” OSG in the eastern part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. At the same time, there has been a decrease in aviation activity in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, likely due to apprehensions about potential aircraft and pilot losses.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 21 combat engagements on several directions.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG units effectively repelled an enemy attack near Bilohorivka and conducted successful assault operations on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions.
• Russian forces continue to exert pressure on Ukrainian troops near Synkivka, where the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian 6th Army is operating, as well as near Petropavlivka, Kyslivka, Dibrova, and to the west of Svatove.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the 5th Separate Assault Brigade of the “Khortytsia” OSG advanced beyond Andriivka and Klishchiivka and launched an attack near Hryhorivka. The Electronic Warfare units of “Khortytsia” OSG effectively disrupted the operations of Russian UAVs near Bakhmut, preventing at least 258 take-offs.
• Russian forces engaged in combat around Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces launched unsuccessful attacks south of Avdiivka and near Nevelske, Pervomaiske, and Maryinka. They made unsuccessful attempts near Severne, captured positions near Krasnohorivka, and repelled Ukrainian attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line near Pervomaiske and southwest of Vesele.
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): “Tavriya” OSG forces attempted to advance towards Zavitne Bazhannia, repelled Russian assaults near Urozhaine, Rivnopol, made progress west of Staromayorske and east of Urozhaine, and repelled positions north of Pryiutne.
• Tokmak direction (Robotyne): “Tavriya” OSG forces continued their advance along the Robotyne-Verbove line and launched assaults on enemy positions near Novoprokopivka and Verbove.
• Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions near Chervone and near Robotyne. The 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Airborne Assault Division counterattacked near Verbove.
• Kherson Direction: “Odesa” OSG forces are active on the islands in the delta of the Dnipro River. Small Ukrainian groups have landed in marshy areas northeast of Oleshky and are concentrating forces for a landing from the islands in the delta of the Dnipro River onto the left bank of Kherson Oblast.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational maritime area, there were 7 enemy ships on combat duty, including 2 cruise missile carriers, with a total salvo of 14 Kalibr cruise missiles. In the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship, and in the Mediterranean Sea, there was 1 enemy ship.

Escalation indicators:

• The artillery of the “Tavriya” OSG delivered concentrated artillery strikes on enemy targets in Verbove, Novoprokopivka, Ocheretuvate, Tokmak, and Chernihivka.
• On the Tokmak direction, the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade and the 15th Separate Operational Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine have been deployed into operation.
• The Russian Air and Space Forces received a batch of fifth-generation stealth Su-57 fighters and fourth-generation Su-35s fighters on September 28.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• Units of the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Army will be deployed in the direction of Dibrova – Serebryansk Forest, and units of the 36th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 67^th Motorized Rifle Division will be deployed west of the Chervonopopivka – Zhytlivka line in the general direction of Novosadove or Terny.
• The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG may achieve a significant operational breakthrough on the southern front line if they maintain the necessary level of combat readiness and the enemy does not concentrate the required reserves on this direction.
• The General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces is contemplating an organized retreat from Tokmak and Bakhmut, with the aim of preserving forces for the defense of Melitopol and Berdyansk.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 29.09.23 

Personnel – almost 277,660 people (+340);

Tanks – 4,687 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,972 (+10);

Artillery systems – 6,409 (+34);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 794 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 536 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,836 (+21);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,991 (+34);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,529 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine. 144 towns and villages and 110 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• In the afternoon of September 29, the Russian aggressors launched a missile attack on a residential district in Kherson — a public dining facility was completely obliterated, as reported by Alexander Prokudin, the head of the regional administration. Earlier in the day, Kherson already came under fire from the Russians. Municipal enterprise workers who were restoring order in the central part of the city were hit, two of them received injuries. Additionally, during the day, the aggressors deployed two guided aerial bombs on Beryslav and Olhivka in the Kherson Oblast. Information regarding the extent of the damage and casualties is currently being ascertained.
• According to the Ukrainian government portal “Children of War,” as of September 29, 18,291 children have been considered found in Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale Russian aggression. 1,217 children are still considered missing. 504 Ukrainian children have lost their lives, and 1,125 have been injured. It is currently impossible to establish the exact number of affected children due to the ongoing hostilities and temporary occupation of parts of Ukraine’s territory.
• A third of Ukrainian citizens who left for EU countries amidst the Russian full-scale aggression plan on returning. Another third of respondents remain uncertain about their return. These are the findings of a sociological study conducted by the National Interests Advocacy Network (ANTS). Among Ukrainians who relocated to EU countries in 2022 and are presently under the protection of host nations, over 50% grapple with psychological challenges: feelings of frustration, disorientation, and battles with depression and insomnia hinder their full integration into new societies. Furthermore, more than 50% of respondents are still struggling to secure employment, primarily due to bureaucratic hurdles and/or language barriers.

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