Russia’s war on Ukraine. 30.09.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia,” on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, the enemy did not conduct offensive (assault) actions. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions in the Klishchiivka area.

In the operational zone of the “Tavria” OSG in the Avdiivka, Maryinka, and Shakhtarsk directions, the enemy conducted over 20 unsuccessful attacks in the areas of Tonenke, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, and Staromayorske, unsuccessfully attempting to regain lost positions southwest of Avdiivka. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Russian forces attempted to regain lost positions in the Robotyne and Verbove areas, but were unsuccessful.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, at the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and advanced in certain areas.

General conclusion: 

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces continued counteroffensive operations in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and in the vicinity of Bakhmut.
• The enemy is exerting efforts to obstruct the advance of the “Khortytsia” OSG forces past the railway line south of Bakhmut.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 44 combat engagements on various fronts. 
• On the Kupyansk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled a Russian attack near Bilohorivka and established pontoon crossings near the damaged bridges over the Oskil River.
• The enemy is consolidating near Torske, continuing to shell objects of the “Khortytsia” OSG in the near rear areas on the Kupyansk direction. In the past days, they destroyed at least four bridges over the Oskil River in Kupyansk and to the south of it.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces captured a height near Klishchiivka and attempted to advance east of the railway line in the Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka area. Intense battles continue near Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka.
• Russian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked near Andriivka, Klishchiivka, and Hryhorivka. They regrouped near Klishchiivka and are planning to retake it.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the forces of the “Tavriya” OSG repelled Russian attacks south of Avdiivka, Tonenke, near Nevelske, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka.
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): the forces of the “Tavriya” OSG attacked north of Zavitne Bazhannia, near Pryiutne.
• Russian forces counterattacked north of Pryiutne, west of Staromayorske, and near Urozhaine, improving their tactical position on certain fronts.
• Tokmak direction (Robotyne): the forces of the “Tavriya” OSG attacked north of Robotyne, attempted to break through the Russian defense near Novoprokopivka, and continue to advance towards Verbove.
• Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Verbove and Chervone and launched an assault the western outskirts of Robotyne.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational zone, there were 13 enemy ships on combat duty, including 2 cruise missile carriers with a total salvo of 14 Kalibr cruise missiles. In the Sea of Azov, there was 1 enemy ship, and in the Mediterranean Sea, there was 1 enemy ship.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps replaced the 85th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the same corps near Bakhmut.
• The Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Army General V. Gerasimov, removed Lieutenant General M. Teplinsky, Commander of the Airborne Forces, from the position of Deputy Commander of the troops on the South-Western Theater of Operations.  

Possible operation situation developments: 

• Units of the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Army will be deployed in the direction of Dibrova – Serebryansk Forest, and units of the 36th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division will be deployed west of the Chervonopopivka – Zhytlivka line in the general direction of Novosadove or Terny.
• The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG may achieve a significant operational breakthrough on the southern front line if they maintain the necessary level of combat readiness and the enemy does not concentrate the required reserves on this direction.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is considering the option of an organized withdrawal from Tokmak and Bakhmut in order to conserve forces for the defense of Melitopol and Berdyansk.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.09.23 

Personnel – almost 278,130 people (+470);

Tanks – 4,691 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,984 (+12);

Artillery systems – 6,447 (+38);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 796 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 537 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,854 (+18);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,006 (+15);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,529 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 11 regions of Ukraine. 145 towns and villages and 130 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• At night of September 29-30, the enemy again attacked Ukraine with around 40 kamikaze drones. Of these, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 30 UAVs:
  • 20 – over Vinnytsia Oblast
  • 6 – over Odesa Oblast
  • 4 – over Mykolaiv Oblast.
• During the nighttime attack on the South of Ukraine, Russian drones maneuvered, attempting to bypass Ukrainian air defense systems in order to reach the central Oblasts of Ukraine.
• Due to the impact on the infrastructure of the Kalynivska community in Vinnytsia Oblast, a powerful fire broke out. There is no information about casualties.
• As a result of overnight shelling, several trains were delayed, Ukrzaliznytsia reported.
• Additionally, during the night, Russians attacked Korabelny district of Kherson. As a result of the strikes, 30 garages and a stadium of the educational institution were on fire. Another educational institution was damaged due to the morning shelling in downtown Kherson.
• Today, on September 20, the Russian forces launched an attack on the territory of the Matviivska united territorial community in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, 5 people were injured. 5 buildings and a critical infrastructure object were damaged.
• On September 30, Russian forces carried out an airstrike on Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, reportedly using KAB-500 munitions, injuring two adults and a child.
• In the towns and villages of the recently liberated territories of Kherson Oblast, where families with children are recommended to evacuate due to shelling, as per the Regional Defense Council’s directive, approximately 1,300 children remain, as reported by Oleksandr Prokudin, the head of the Kherson Regional State Administration. Police and local authorities are actively engaging with parents, urging them to proceed with the evacuation. Prepared regions are in place to welcome them, offering appropriate living arrangements. Presently, 234 children along with their families have successfully undergone evacuation procedures.

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