Russia’s war on Ukraine. 01.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia,” on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, the enemy conducted localized offensive (assault) actions. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions in the Klishchiivka area.

In the operational zone “Tavria” OSG in the Avdiivka and Maryinka directions, the enemy unsuccessfully tried to regain lost positions in the area of Avdiivka and to improve their tactical position in the areas east of Novoselivka and east of Stepove. The enemy conducted over 10 unsuccessful attacks in the Maryinka area. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions in the Novodarivka area and improve their tactical position west of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Kupyansk, Kreminna, and Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line and at the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. They made slight advances along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line.

The Aerospace Forces of the Russian Armed Forces carried out an aerial strike using combat drones on a Ukrainian Defence Forces military arsenal near Kalynivka in Vinnytsia Oblast.

General conclusion: 

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces continued counteroffensive operations in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and near Bakhmut.
• The slowdown in combat actions on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions may be attributed to the ongoing process of repositioning the forces of the Russian 25th Army to these areas.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in attempts to break through towards Tonenke – Severne – Lastochkine – Orlyivka and encircle the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Avdiivka.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 34 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles continue near Synkivka and in the area of Serebryansk Forest. The enemy attacked Ukrainian positions near Bilohorivka. Russian forces resumed assault operations on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions over the past day, making two unsuccessful attempts to break through the Ukrainian defense.
• The Russian military command deployed units and formations of the newly formed 25th Army in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction. The total strength of the 25th Army is up to 12,000 personnel.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces launched attacks near Yampolivka, Torske, and Dibrova.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces attempted to break through to the railway east of Klishchiivka and Andriivka. They maintain control over the crucial Russian logistics route T0513 Bakhmut – Horlivka. 
• Russian forces launched unsuccessful attacks near Klishchiivka. They tried to push back the “Khortytsia” OSG units from the railway and counterattacked near Andriivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces made slight advances west of Maryinka and delivered unsuccessful strikes east of Stepove and southwest of Avdiivka, near Novoselivka, Tonenke, and Novomykhailivka.
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): the forces of the “Tavriya” OSG attacked near Pryiutne and Rivnopol and conducted reconnaissance in the Pryiutne and Novomayorske areas.
• Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Staromayorske and Novodarivka. They are engaging in localized offensive actions from Pryiutne towards Rivnopol and counterattacking near Urozhaine. Russian aviation struck a bridge over the Shaitanka River in Velyka Novosilka.
• Tokmak direction (Robotyne): Small groups of the Ukrainian infantry without armored support continue to conduct assault operation near Robotyne, Novoprokopivka, and Verbove. They launched an assault towards the Kopani village.
• Russian forces attempted to retake lost positions near Robotyne and Verbove. They counterattacked near Novodanylivka and Mala Tokmachka and resumed actions southeast of Hulyaipole near Chervone.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational maritime zone, there were 4 enemy ships on combat duty; in the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship; in the Mediterranean Sea, there was 1 enemy ship.
• At the Novorossiysk naval base, preparations were underway to deploy 2 small missile ships, “Grayvoron” and “Vyshnyi Volochyok”, along with 2 diesel-electric submarines, “Velykiy Novgorod” and “Stary Oskol”. Additionally, 4 large landing ships were being readied, although their names have yet to be verified.
• In the Crimean naval base (Sevastopol), there are 2 missile corvettes, “Shuya” and “Ivanovets”.
• In the Feodosiya base, there are 2 large landing ships (names unverified), and the LLS “Orsk” is stationed in the outer roadstead. The missile ship “Ingushetia” and the patrol corvette “Pavel Derzhavin” are also preparing for deployment to their assigned regions. Additionally, 2 anti-sabotage corvettes, “Yeysk” and “Kasimov”, are gearing up for combat duty in the vicinity of the Kerch Strait bridge.
• In the northern part of the Turkish port of Zonguldak, maritime traffic is monitored by the patrol ship “Pytlivyy” and 2 patrol corvettes “Vasily Bykov” and “Pavel Rogachev”.
• Within the vicinity of the base in Yevpatoriya, missile boats “Burya” and “Naberezhnye Chelny” are on radar patrol.
• Tasks related to the defense of the Kerch Strait Bridge are being carried out by:
  • Air and Missile Defense / Missile Defense – missile ship “Askold” (from the base in Kerch) and corvette “Suzdalets” (from the Sea of Azov).
  • Electronic Warfare (EW) – medium reconnaissance ship “Priazovye” (from the vicinity of Cape Meganom).
  • Anti-diversion defense – 2 anti-diversion boats, “Kursant Kirovets” and “Suvorovets” (from the Sea of Azov).
• Under repair:
  • Diesel-electric submarine of project 636.3 “Kolpino” – Novorossiysk.
  • Patrol corvette “Sergey Kotov” – Kerch.
  • Diesel-electric submarine of project 877B “Alrosa”, patrol ship “Ladny”, corvettes “Povorino”, “Muromets”, medium reconnaissance ship “Ivan Khurs”, 2 missile ships “Samum”, “Bora”, 2 large landing ships (names unspecified) – Crimean naval base (Sevastopol).
• The enemy’s naval group in the Sea of Azov consists of the corvette “Suzdalets”, 2 anti-diversion boats “Kursant Kirovets” and “Suvorovets”, and 3 artillery boats (based in Temryuk).
• The missile ship “Cyclone” is based in the port of Sukhumi.
• Military sea transportation between Crimea and Syria is carried out by the dry cargo ship “Ursa Major” and the medium-sized tanker “Yaz”.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The “volunteer” battalion “Moskva” units are deployed near Kreminna.
• In the vicinity of Siversk, units of the Russian 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps are in action.
• Units of the Russian 106th Airborne Division of the Russian Airborne Forces are operating in the Soledar area.
• Units of the 98th Airborne Division of the Russian Airborne Forces are operating near Bakhmut.
• Approximately 140 citizens of Cuba arrived in Russia in the summer of 2023 and joined the 106th Airborne Division of the Russian Airborne Forces. 119 Cubans are training at the division’s training center near Tula. Some of the Cuban recruits are already deployed in Ukraine.

Escalation indicators: 

• The deployment of the 25th Army is ongoing in the Lyman direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy command will escalate efforts to encircle Avdiivka, but they are severely constrained by limited resources for this endeavor.

• Units of the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Army will be deployed in the direction of Dibrova – Serebryansk Forest, and units of the 36th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division will be deployed west of the Chervonopopivka – Zhytlivka line in the general direction of Novosadove or Terny.
• The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG may achieve a significant operational breakthrough on the southern front line if they maintain the necessary level of combat readiness and the enemy does not concentrate the required reserves on this direction.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is contemplating an organized withdrawal from Tokmak and Bakhmut, aiming to preserve forces for the defense of Melitopol and Berdyansk.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 01.10.23 

Personnel – almost 278,570 people (+440);

Tanks – 4,702 (+11);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,991 (+7);

Artillery systems – 6,477 (+30);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 798 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 537 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,883 (+29);

Aircraft – 316 (+1);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,043 (+37);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,529 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 11 regions of Ukraine. 149 towns and villages and 141 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night, the Russian forces launched about 30 “Shahed” drones at Ukraine. Ukrainian Air Defense Forces intercepted and downed 16 of them.
  • There was an impact on industrial infrastructure in Uman, Cherkasy Oblast. Warehouses with grain were on fire. One person was injured.
  • In Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the enemy drones targeted civilian infrastructure, causing significant damage.
• Additionally, the Russians attacked Kharkiv, reportedly using 3 S-300 missiles. The strike hit the territory of a civilian enterprise, resulting in a fire.
• Due to a nighttime missile strike on Zaporizhzhia, a fire broke out at one of the infrastructure facilities. There is information about one injured civilian.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent