Russia’s war on Ukraine. 02.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia,” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the area of Makiyivka. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy made unsuccessful attempts to regain lost positions in the Andriivka area.

In the operational zone of the “Tavria” OSG on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy attempted to regain lost positions in the area of Avdiivka but was unsuccessful. Ukrainian defenders successfully repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Keramik, Stepove, Avdiivka, and Pervomaiske. The enemy conducted 11 unsuccessful attacks in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the Russian forces made unsuccessful attacks in the Staromayorske area. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy attempted to regain lost positions in the Novodarivka and Verbove areas but was unsuccessful.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk-Lyman line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, at the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and made slight advances in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

General conclusion: 

• The intensity of battles on the Luhansk direction has decreased over the past week.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces regularly attack west of Kreminna to hinder Russian actions on the Siversky Donets River bank near Bilohorivka, Torske, and Terny.
• The enemy command is compelled to relocate a substantial number of troops, including not only those from the 41st Army but also from the 2nd Army and the 1st Tank Army, to the vicinity of Kreminna in order to restore their combat readiness.
• The intensity of “Tavriya” OSG attacks on the Berdyansk direction has significantly decreased.
• Russian forces are conducting successful limited tactical counterattacks south of Robotyne, where the tactical situation is complex and dynamic.
• The “Tavriya” OSG forces in the area of Velyka Novosilka and near Orihiv are conducting rotation and replenishing units, preparing for a resumption of attacks near Pryiutne, Novomayorske, and in the Orihiv area.
• Russian forces are transferring air defense assets to Simferopol to strengthen the capabilities of the air defense system in the occupied Crimea.
• The enemy’s Aerospace Forces are widely using guided aerial bombs (KAB).
• The temporary stabilization of the situation on the Tokmak direction has led to a significant decrease in the combat readiness of the Russian 7th and 76th Air Assault Divisions.
• The level of combat readiness of units and detachments within the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army has declined. The 70th, 71st, and 291st Motorized Rifle Regiments have received reinforcements from various irregular formations. They are now compelled to sustain their defense in their current positions independently, encountering challenges with centralized operational command and control.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 38 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces launched an offensive near Kyslivka. Battles are ongoing near Petropavlivka, Synkivka, and Dvorichna.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces attacked near Kreminna, Dibrova, and in the area of Serebryansk Forest.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces made slight advances northeast of Andriivka and attempted to break through to the railway in the Klishchiivka and Andriivka areas.
• The enemy repelled Ukrainian attacks near Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka, and occupied positions in the eastern part of Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
• The estimated strength of the Russian garrison in Bakhmut is up to 10,000 personnel.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack near Krasnohorivka, unsuccessfully shelled Novoselivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, Vesele, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka. They also carried out unsuccessful attacks near Severne and from Opytne.
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): the forces of the “Tavriya” OSG attacked near Pryiutne.
• Russian forces made unsuccessful attacks near Novodarivka, counterattacked from Pryiutne, and regained lost positions. They also unsuccessfully counterattacked in the direction of Staromayorske.
• Tokmak direction (Robotyne): the forces of the “Tavriya” OSG achieved minor successes near Robotyne, where they advanced to the northwest, and attacked near Verbove, Novopokrovka, and near Bilohirya. Firefights took place near Novofedorivka.
• In the area of Novoprokopivka, the commander of the “Tavriya” OSG introduced three newly deployed brigades, advancing in a southward direction: the 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade, the 71st Jaeger Brigade, and the 15th Operational Purpose Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine. Simultaneously, combat operations are being conducted by the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, alongside the 82nd and 46th Separate Air Assault Brigades. These units are further supported by the 44th and 148th Separate Artillery Brigades, as well as the 27th MLRS brigade, all engaging in artillery fire against Russian positions situated between Novoprokopivka, Verbove, and Ocheretuvate, where the 104th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division was defeated and forced to withdraw from the Novoprokopivka area.
• The command post of the 58th Army lost control of the operation after two artillery strikes by the “Tavriya” OSG.
• Russian forces made minor advances south of Robotyne and northwest of Verbove. They repelled two Ukrainian attacks in the direction of Robotyne and unsuccessfully attacked near Novodarivka. Units of the 56th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division repelled Ukrainian attacks near Novofedorivka. Units of the 108th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division defended in the area near Verbove.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational maritime zone, there were 3 enemy ships on combat duty; in the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship; in the Mediterranean Sea, there was 1 enemy ship.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Army is concentrated in the Chervonopopivka area. 
• Units of the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps are deployed near Bilohorivka. 
• The 25th Army has deployed south and west of Kreminna, replacing the forces of the 41st Army and the 76th Air Assault Division, which suffered losses. 
• On the Avdiivka direction, units of the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 1453rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops of the same corps are operating. 
• Units of the 177th Marine Regiment of the Caspian Fleet are deployed near Dorozhnyanka.
• Over the past two days, the enemy’s 29th and 1140th Artillery Regiments have lost up to half of their equipment and personnel on the Tokmak direction.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The enemy command will intensify efforts to encircle Avdiivka, but they have extremely limited resources for this purpose.
• Units of the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Army will be deployed in the direction of Dibrova – Serebryansk Forest, and units of the 36th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division will be deployed west of the Chervonopopivka – Zhytlivka line in the general direction of Novosadove or Terny.
• The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG may achieve a significant operational breakthrough on the southern front line if they maintain the necessary level of combat readiness and the enemy does not concentrate the required reserves on this direction.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is considering the option of an organized withdrawal from Tokmak and Bakhmut in order to conserve forces for the defense of Melitopol and Berdyansk.
• In the near future, the targets for air strikes are anticipated to be the pontoon bridges across the Oskil River.
• Operational reserves are anticipated to be transferred to the composition of the enemy’s Operational Group “Zaporizhzhia.” These may likely be military units from the 41st or 8th Armies.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.10.23 

Personnel – almost 279,080 people (+510);

Tanks – 4,717 (+15);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,000 (+9);

Artillery systems – 6,525 (+48);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 801 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 540 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,909 (+26);

Aircraft – 316 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,061 (+18);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,529 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• During the past month, the Russian Federation targeted Ukraine with 246 missiles, 746 drones, and 1159 guided aerial bombs, with the majority of the targets being civilian objects, said President Volodymyr Zelensky at the meeting of foreign ministers of EU member states in Kyiv.
• September saw a record number of “Shahed” drones used by Russia against Ukraine, stated Yuriy Ignat, the spokesperson for the Air Force Command. As reported, the Iranian kamikaze drones of the Shahed type, which Russia employs for strikes against Ukraine, present a challenging and less noticeable target for air defense forces. The adversary is also working on improving their protection against electronic warfare means.
• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine. 132 towns and villages and 111 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night, Ukrainian Air Defense Forces successfully intercepted four out of seven “Shahed” drones that the Russians used to attack Ukraine. Three drones were destroyed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Furthermore, throughout the night and morning, the Russian army shelled Kherson multiple times. Private and multi-apartment buildings and two educational institutions, a civilian infrastructure object, and a business premises were damaged.
• On the morning of October 2, the Russian forces shelled Kherson again. 4 people were injured, and one person was killed. 

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