Russia’s war on Ukraine. 03.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia,” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the area of Makiyivka. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy made unsuccessful attempts to regain lost positions in the Andriivka area.

In the operational zone of the “Tavria” OSG on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy attempted to regain lost positions in the area of Avdiivka but was unsuccessful. Ukrainian defenders successfully repelled enemy attacks in the area east of Stepove. The enemy conducted 10 unsuccessful attacks in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian defenders successfully repelled enemy attacks near Staromayorske and Rivnopol. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy attempted to regain lost positions west of Verbove and southeast of Mala Tokmachka but was unsuccessful.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk-Lyman line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, at the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and made minor advances in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

General conclusion: 

• The forces of the Russian 25th Army, newly deployed on the Lyman direction, are not engaged in intense combat due to their low combat readiness.
• On the Kupyansk front, Russian forces are employing outdated automatic anti-aircraft guns S-60 dating back to the 1950s, signaling issues with supplying modern weaponry even to the forces of the first operational echelon on the theater of operations.
• The 31st Separate Air Assault Brigade of the Russian Airborne Forces has been withdrawn from the Bakhmut direction to restore combat readiness. It faces a critically low level of morale and psychological state. Similar issues persist within the 7th and 76th Air Assault Divisions deployed in the Tokmak direction.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 35 combat engagements in various directions.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attempted an unsuccessful attack near Makiyivka.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces attacked near Kreminna, Dibrova, Torske, and Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, intense battles continue south of Bakhmut near the railway line, which currently serves as the Russian defensive line.
• “Khortytsia” OSG troops continued their efforts to advance east of the railway line near Andriivka and captured more advantageous positions.
• Units of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian 2nd Army Corps and the so-called “Kadyrov” detachment “Akhmat” repelled a Ukrainian attack in the vicinity of Klishchiivka. Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to retake lost positions near Andriivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces captured several Ukrainian positions near Severne, Keramik, and Stepove, and repelled Ukrainian attacks near Nevelske and Krasnohorivka. 
• The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks east of Stepove and near Avdiivka, Keramik, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka. They launched counterattacks towards Vodyane, Opytne, Krasnohorivka, and Novokalynove. 
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Forces of the “Tavriya” OSG made slight progress to the northwest of Novomayorske and launched an attack near Pryiutne. 
• Russian forces advanced 100-150 meters east of Urozhaine, and unsuccessfully attacked near Staromayorske, Rivnopol, and Novodarivka.
• Tokmak direction (Robotyne): Forces of the “Tavriya” OSG attacked near Novoprokopivka and Robotyne. 
• Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked west of Verbove. 
• In the Black Sea-Azov maritime operational zone, there were 3 enemy ships on combat duty; in the Azov Sea – 1 enemy ship; in the Mediterranean Sea – 1 enemy ship.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army is operating in the Svatove – Kreminna area. 
• The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has removed Major General A. Sichevoy from command on the Bakhmut direction due to poorly organized counterattacks south of Bakhmut in the vicinity of Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The enemy command will intensify efforts to encircle Avdiivka, but they have extremely limited resources for this purpose.
• The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG may achieve a significant operational breakthrough on the southern front line if they maintain the necessary level of combat readiness and the enemy does not concentrate the required reserves on this direction.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is considering the option of an organized withdrawal from Tokmak and Bakhmut in order to conserve forces for the defense of Melitopol and Berdiansk.
• In the near future, the targets of air strikes are expected to be pontoon bridges over the Oskil River.
• Operational reserves are anticipated to be transferred to the composition of the enemy’s Operational Group “Zaporizhzhia.” These may likely be military units from the 41st or 8th Armies.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 03.10.23 

Personnel – almost 279,440 people (+360);

Tanks – 4,732 (+15);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,008 (+8);

Artillery systems – 6,565 (+40);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 801 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 540 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,932 (+23);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,080 (+20);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,529 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine. 127 towns and villages and 115 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night attack, 29 drones and one Iskander-K cruise missile were shot down. The Russians conducted launches from the temporarily occupied Crimea. In Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a drone hit an industrial enterprise, starting a fire. Additionally, debris from the UAV was recorded in Dnipro.

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