Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 04.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia,” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy did not engage in active offensive (assault) actions. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled over 10 enemy attacks in the area of Makiyivka. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy made unsuccessful attempts to regain lost ground in the Andriivka area. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault actions south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating positions at the achieved front lines.

In the operational zone of the “Tavria” OSG on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled all enemy attacks in the area of Pervomaiske. The enemy made over 10 unsuccessful attacks in the Maryinka and Krasnohorivka areas. On the Shakhtarsk and Zaporizhzhia directions, the enemy did not engage in active offensive (assault) actions.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk-Lyman line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, at the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and made advances in some sectors.

General conclusion: 

  • Enemy efforts to attack the flanks of the “Tavriya” OSG forces on the Tokmak direction necessitate the deployment of substantial artillery resources to effectively thwart these counterattacks.
  • The delay in the advance of “Tavriya” OSG forces on the Tokmak direction provides the adversary with an opportunity to establish fresh minefields within the depth of their defensive positions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 43 combat engagements in various directions.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy repelled a Ukrainian attack near Torske, Hryhorivka, and Serebryansk forestry. They advanced towards Kupyansk, Kreminna, and Kyslivka. Units of the 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 237th Tank Regiment of the Russian 3rd Motorized Rifle Division suddenly attacked Ukrainian forward positions on the Ploschanka – Makiivka direction. The enemy managed to push back Ukrainian forward units by at least 600 meters.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG continued their offensive actions, steadily gaining ground in the vicinity of Klishchiivka and Andriivka, and making substantial progress towards Odradivka. The 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces effectively neutralized a significant portion of the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, which has been defending in Kurdyumivka.
  • Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked south of Andriivka. The enemy is resorting to small-scale counterattack tactics.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Krasnohorivka, in Avdiivka, Maryinka, east of Stepove, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka, Novokalynove, towards Yurivka, and advanced in the area of Stepove.
  • Following the enemy’s failed attempt to regain lost ground on the southern flank of the Avdiivka direction within the “Tavriya” OSG’s defensive perimeter, the enemy command opted for a similar approach on the northern flank. Units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps attempted an attack toward Krasnohorivka – Novokalynove. In this same direction, the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division once again unsuccessfully attempted to clear the central and northern parts of Maryinka.
  • Forces of the “Tavriya” OSG attacked near Nevelske.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Urozhaine, Staromayorske, and Pryiutne. They advanced 200 meters inward, and cleared an unspecified wooded area east of Urozhaine. They advanced to the Hrusheva ravine and attacked Staromayorske and Urozhaine from the direction of Pryiutne. The intensity of combat escalated along the Urozhaine – Novodonetske line. Upon the deployment of the Russian 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from the Pryiutne – Zavitne Bazhannia line, Russian forces were unable to significantly enhance their position in the Rivnopol direction. The 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian 127th Motorized Rifle Division managed to push back Ukrainian forward units north of Pryiutne, but only from one platoon stronghold, after which they ceased their advance.
  • Units of the enemy’s 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade defending on the main axis in the area of Staromlynivka attempted to attack along the road from Zavitne Bazhannia to Staromayorske, resulting in their defeat.
  • The 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the enemy’s 36th Combined Arms Army attempted an unexpected attack west of Novodonetske against the advanced units of the “Tavriya” OSG, with the backing of a tank company. However, they incurred losses and were subsequently repelled.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Staromayorske and Rivnopol.
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): The “Tavriya” OSG forces launched an attack on Russian positions along the Kopani – Robotyne – Verbove line, where intense fighting is ongoing, and advanced near Novoprokopivka. The 46th Separate Airborne Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, reinforced with a battalion trained for urban combat and a UAV unit, is  engaged in combat operations within Novoprokopivka
  • North and northeast of Verbove, units of the Ukrainian 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade and the 118th Separate Motorized Brigade are advancing along the H08 highway towards Pavlivka. They are overcoming resistance posed by detachments from the Russian 22nd Separate SOF Brigade, the 108th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division.  Simultaneously, they are providing support for the operations of the Ukrainian 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade, which is in the final stages of defeating the Russian 247th Air Assault Regiment, the 417th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, and the 11th BARS unit
  • Southeast of Novoprokopivka, the Ukrainian 47th and the 116th Separate Motorized Brigades are surmounting anti-tank ditches and pressing forward in a southeastward direction to secure the hilly terrain encompassing Solodka Balka, Pshenychne, and Nove. The adversary is striving to impede their progress by extensively deploying FPV drones.
  • Russian forces thwarted the Ukrainian attack near Verbove and counterattacked near Robotyne, making progress overnight by several hundred meters near Robotyne and Verbove, where their attempts to reclaim lost positions were unsuccessful.
  • Following a series of airstrikes utilizing KAB aerial bombs equipped with UMPK kits, UAVs “Lancet,” and Ka-52 helicopters on targets within the vicinity of Mala Tokmachka, the 234th Air Assault Regiment of the Russian 76th Air Assault Division resumed attacks. This led to the retreat of units of the Ukrainian 65th and 116th Separate Motorized Brigades from the Kopani area.
  • The adversary has established an intricate network of trenches and tunnels, incorporating subterranean bunkers spanning two levels in close proximity to Novoprokopivka. Additionally, they are fortifying new trenches in the vicinity of Tokmak.
  • Following targeted strikes on the command post of the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army, their headquarters experienced a temporary loss of control over the troops.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational zone, there were 4 enemy ships on combat duty. In the Sea of Azov, there were 2 enemy ships, including 2 Kalibr cruise missile carriers with a total salvo of 8 missiles. In the Mediterranean Sea, there was 1 enemy ship.

Change in enemy disposition: 

  • In the area of Robotyne and Verbove, units of the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, the 56th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division of the Russian Airborne Forces, the 810th Separate Marine Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet (withdrawn for restoration) and the 291st Artillery Brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army are deployed. 
  • Units withdrawn for restoration of combat readiness include the 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops (in the vicinity of Chervonohirka), the 810th Separate Marine Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet (northern outskirts of Tokmak), the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (Ilchenkove village), and the 78th Separate Special Purpose Motorized Regiment, withdrawn to the reserve of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (south of Solodka Balka).
  • The 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army of the enemy has been withdrawn from the Svatove direction for replenishment.

Escalation indicators: 

  • The number of combat engagements is increasing on various fronts.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG may achieve a substantial operational breakthrough on the southern front, contingent on sustained combat readiness and provided the enemy doesn’t amass requisite reserves in this sector.
  • The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is contemplating an organized withdrawal from Tokmak and Bakhmut in order to conserve forces for the defense of Melitopol and Berdiansk.
  • In the near future, the targets for air strikes are anticipated to be pontoon bridges over the Oskil River.
  • It is anticipated that operational reserves will be redeployed to reinforce the enemy’s Operational Group “Zaporizhzhia,” potentially involving military units from the 41st or 8th Armies.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.10.23 

Personnel – almost 279,890 people (+450);

Tanks – 4,745 (+13);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,026 (+18);

Artillery systems – 6,612 (+47);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 802 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 540 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,962 (+30);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,121 (+41);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,530 (+1);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 141 towns and villages and 142 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • In Crimea, the Russian authorities have inaugurated yet another “military-patriotic center” for children, as reported by Dmytro Lubinets, the Commissioner of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine for Human Rights. According to Lubinets, the occupying administration has indicated that in the initial phase, this center enrolled 100 students in grades 9-11. By October 6, these adolescents will be instructed in the fundamentals of military service. Lubinets emphasized that through the dissemination of war-related propaganda, the Russians are endeavoring to erase Ukrainian identity in these children and sever their ties to their native country. He pointed out that the militarization of education by Russians and the imposition of their ideology on children in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine constitute a war crime under international humanitarian law.

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