Russia’s war on Ukraine. 05.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia,” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack in the area north of Zybyne. On the Lyman direction, the Defense Forces repelled seven enemy attacks in areas east of Makiyivka and northwest of Dibrova. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost ground in the areas of Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. The Defense Forces continue their assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on their achieved positions.

In the operational zone of the “Tavriya” (OSG) on the Avdiivka and Maryinka directions, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost ground in the Avdiivka area and improve their tactical position near Lastochkine. The enemy conducted over 15 unsuccessful attacks in the areas of Maryinka and Krasnohorivka. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled enemy attacks in the Zolota Nyva and Rivnopil areas. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Defense Forces successfully repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Novodarivka, Verbove, and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk-Svatove- Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, at the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and achieved limited success near Kreminna.

General conclusion: 

• The adversary’s grouping on the Kupyansk direction has sufficient striking capabilities (number of tanks and artillery). Still, it is limited in its ability to achieve tactical success at the operational level due to a shortage of armored vehicles (with only enough for 18-20 battalions compared to their 30-32 battalion strength.)
• The command of the adversary’s “West” Operational Grouping is undertaking preliminary measures in preparation for an offensive operation. The frequency and intensity of aerial assaults have notably escalated, targeting all crossings over the Oskil River and the communication lines of the “Khortytsia” OSG in both their tactical and operational rear areas. The adversary is employing 7-10 guided aerial bombs on a single target.
• Synkivka serves as a vital defensive node for the “Khortytsia” OSG on the Kupyansk direction, one that the adversary cannot circumvent en route to Kupyansk via Petropavlivka.
• An enemy breakthrough on the Synkivka – Petropavlivka axis would result in a substantial disruption of the “Khortytsia” OSG’s defense in the Kupyansk area, given its dependency on the logistical route along the P07 highway.
• The operational pause in active actions by the advanced units of the “Tavriya” OSG on the Berdyansk direction has prolonged, despite a significant increase in the striking force of “Tavriya” on this axis.
• The command of the enemy’s “Zaporizhzhia” Grouping is consolidating the forces of the 58th Combined Arms Army on the Tokmak operational direction. The troops of the 58th Army are spread out on a wide front from Vasylivka to Staromlynivka, potentially leading to a loss of their cohesive force.
• Over the past two days, the enemy has been forced to transition from flanking attacks to direct frontal attempts on the Tokmak direction in an effort to displace the advanced units of the “Tavriya” OSG from the wedge area between Robotyne and Verbove.
• The purpose of counterattacks in the Robotyne – Verbove area may be to buy time for the withdrawal of the enemy’s 19th and 42nd Motorized Rifle Divisions from the first defensive line. The Russian forces engaged in these counterattacks are not reserves of the 58th Combined Arms Army.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 57 combat engagements on various fronts. 
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy did not abandon their plan to reach the Oskil River line. The operational groups “Zapad” and “Tsentr” command continue preparations for active offensive actions in the northern part of Luhansk Oblast and the southeastern part of Kharkiv Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Svatove and attacked Ukrainian positions near Bilohorivka. Through aerial strikes, they destroyed at least 5 bridges over the Oskil River in the Kupyansk area over the past week, impacting the logistics of the “Khortytsia” OSG. The enemy repelled attacks by the “Khortytsia” OSG forces near Yampolivka, in the area of Serebryansk Forest, and on the lines Hryhorivka – Novodruzhesk, Vovchoyarivka – Ivano-Dariivka, Pereizne – Berestove.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled a localized Russian attack north of Zybyne, which was part of the enemy’s tactical transborder raid from the Belgorod region. They also thwarted 5 attacks east of Makiyivka and northwest of Dibrova.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces continued their advance south of Bakhmut and achieved tactical success near Klishchiivka and Andriivka. They crossed the railway and established positions there.
• Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to retake lost positions near Hryhorivka and Andriivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the “Tavriya” OSG forces liberated the territory near Nevelske, positioning themselves a mere 2 kilometers from the intersection in Pisky. They repelled Russian attacks near Avdiivka, Lastochkine, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, and Krasnohorivka.
• Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Vodyane, Nevelske, and Krasnohorivka, and continued shelling near Stepne and Novomykhailivka.
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Following the deployment of the enemy units of 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from the Pryiutne – Zavitne Bazhannia line, they failed to significantly improve their position in the Rivnopol area. The enemy’s 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment managed to push back advanced units of “Tavriya” OSG north of Pryiutne, but only from one platoon stronghold, after which the regiment’s progress was halted.
• Units of the enemy’s 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, defending on the Staromlynivka axis, unsuccessfully attacked along the road from Zavitne Bazhannia to Staromayorske. The 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the enemy’s 36th Combined Arms Army attempted a sudden attack west of Novodonetske on the advanced units of the “Tavriya” OSG. However, their two attempts to break through to the north of the western part of this village failed.  
• “Tavriya” OSG forces remain active in the wooded terrain northwest of Pryiutne, making persistent attempts to regain lost positions. They repelled a Russian attack near Zolota Nyva.
• Tokmak direction (Robotyne): Intense close combat continues in the area where the advanced units of the “Tavriya” OSG are wedged into the first position of the enemy’s main defensive line between Novoprokopivka and Verbove. The enemy is determined to narrow down this wedge at any cost. Units of the enemy’s 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army counterattacked in the area of Novoprokopivka and advanced by 300 meters, removing the immediate threat of losing control over the northern part of the village. West of Verbove, units of the 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division, with the support of the 387th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops, managed to reduce the wedge of the “Tavriya” OSG by 400 meters.
• Northwest of Verbove, units of the “Tavriya” OSG attacked the positions of the 108th Air Assault Regiment of the enemy’s 7th Air Assault Division and forced them to retreat by 250 meters in the southeast direction. West of Robotyne, they managed to completely halt the attacks of the 104th Air Assault Regiment of the enemy’s 76th Air Assault Division and advanced towards Kopani by 300 meters.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea maritime operational zone, there were 5 enemy ships on combat duty. In the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship- a carrier of cruise missiles. There were 3 enemy ships in the Mediterranean Sea, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The cruise missile-carrying ships were not loaded.
• Recently, Russian forces relocated the frigates “Admiral Makarov” and “Admiral Essen,” along with 3 diesel submarines, 5 landing ships, and several small missile ships from the Crimean Naval Base to Novorossiysk. In Sevastopol, 4 Russian landing ships and a submarine remain. The patrol ship of Project 22160 is stationed in the home base of Feodosia.
• The possibility of mine-laying operations by the forces of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy in the vicinity of the grain corridor cannot be discounted.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• Directly on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy is deploying forces and assets from the 6th Combined Arms Army and the 1st Tank Army. On the Lyman direction, the 20th Army Corps is operating.
• The Russian Operational Grouping “West” (excluding border protection units) consists of 3 brigades, 17 regiments (within divisions and territorial troops), 6 separate battalions, and 2 BARS detachments. The operational reserve of this grouping includes the 11th Army Corps of the Baltic Fleet. Additionally, there are 2 regiments (including 1 tank regiment), 1 battalion and 2 mobilization reserve infantry regiments in reserve. The total strength of the grouping is up to 54,000 personnel, up to 500 tanks, 650 armored vehicles, 680 artillery pieces and MLRS, and up to 8 Iskander launchers (from the 448th Missile Battalion of the 20th Army). Up to 2/3 of the mentioned composition may be deployed for action on the designated direction.
• To re-establish offensive operations on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy command has also concentrated the 26th Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army.
• On the Soledar direction, units of the 106th Air Assault Division are deployed.
• Units of the 22nd Separate SOF Brigade and the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army are operating near Pryiutne.

Escalation indicators: 

• The frequency of combat engagements is escalating across various fronts. The enemy command is preparing units of the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, a component of the 58th Combined Arms Army, for relocation from Berdyansk to the Tokmak direction.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The adversary may launch active offensive operations on the Kupyansk direction between October 5th and 8th. Potential axes for the forthcoming offensive could include advances towards Petropavlivka through Synkivka, towards Petropavlivka through Pershotravneve, and towards Kupyansk-Vuzlovy through Stepova Novoselivka.
• The most likely commencement of the enemy’s offensive will encompass heightened combat activity along the Lyman Pershyi – Synkivka and Vilshana – Synkivka axes. For this purpose, they have amassed forces, including the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army, the 1483rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops, and the “Storm-Z” units. The anticipated course of action involves one strike group launching an attack from Lyman Pershyi through the forest, attempting to break through along the Oskil River to the south, bypassing Synkivka from the west. The second group will attempt to break through along the road from Vilshana to Synkivka along the forest’s edge.
• The enemy may address the Synkivka defensive node of the “Khortytsia” OSG through the following alternative strategies:
  • An attempt by the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army to break through to Highway P07 from Pershotravneve;
  • A simultaneous attack by the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 245th Motorized Rifle Regiment, along with the 6th Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division in the area of Synkivka or Ivanivka, subsequent to the deployment of tactical reserves of the “Khortytsia” OSG;
  • An attack in the direction of Yahidne – Ivanivka – Stepova Novoselivka, aiming to breach through to Petropavlivka, bypassing the Synkivka defensive node from the east.
• The most probable course of action is a frontal attack by the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 47th Tank Division directly on the Synkivka fortified area.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is contemplating an organized withdrawal from Tokmak and Bakhmut in order to conserve forces for the defense of Melitopol and Berdiansk.
• Operational reserves are anticipated to be redeployed to reinforce the enemy’s Operational Group “Zaporizhzhia,” potentially involving military units from the 41st or 8th Armies.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.10.23 

Personnel – almost 280,470 people (+580);

Tanks – 4,757 (+12);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,052 (+26);

Artillery systems – 6,643 (+31);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 804 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 540 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,980 (+18);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,129 (+8);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,530 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian/general:

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 127 towns and villages and 115 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• Overnight, the Ukrainian defense forces “South” have shot down 24 out of 29 enemy combat drones over Ukraine. Of these, 10 were downed over Mykolaiv Oblast, 9 over Kirovohrad Oblast, and 5 over Odesa Oblast. There was a strike on an infrastructure object in Kirovohrad Oblast.
• On the afternoon of October 5, Russian occupiers targeted a grocery store and café in Hroza village, Kharkiv Oblast, reportedly using an “Iskander” missile. The strike resulted in death of 51 Ukrainians, including a child born in 2017, and left 6 individuals injured. According to a spokesperson of the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office, a memorial service for a fallen soldier was underway at the café during the attack. Reportedly, the strike resulted in the loss of nearly half of Hroza village’s population, which was estimated at around 100 residents. This terrorist attack stands as the bloodiest crime committed by Russians in Kharkiv Oblast since the onset of the full-scale invasion, stated Oleg Synehubov, the Head of the Regional Military Administration. In remembrance, Kharkiv Oblast will observe three days of mourning.
• In Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, the Russian forces targeted a hospital. The fourth floor was completely destroyed, and another one partially. Ambulances were also damaged by enemy fire. Two medical workers were injured. 
• There are civilian casualties due to the morning artillery shelling in the city center of Kherson. Residential buildings, as well as non-residential premises, were hit.

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