Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 06.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia,” on the Kupyansk direction, the Russian forces did not engage in offensive actions. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled four enemy attacks east of Makiivka. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders achieved success east of Andriivka. The enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost ground east of Dyliivka. The Defense Forces continue their assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their positions at the achieved lines.

In the operational zone of the “Tavriya” OSG on the Avdiivka and Maryinka directions, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault actions in the Avdiivka area. The enemy made 14 unsuccessful attacks in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Zolota Nyva and Vodyane. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, Ukrainian defenders are holding back the enemy southeast of Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk-Svatove- Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, at the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, at the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They did not make progress on October 5th.

General conclusion: 

  • Russian forces have increased the intensity of combat operations on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line but have not achieved territorial gains.
  • The adversary is concentrating its efforts on offensive operations in Makiyivka, where eight combat engagements occurred in the preceding day.
  • The Russian military command has significant apprehension regarding potential upcoming operations by the Ukrainian Defence Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
  • The adversary’s 42nd Motorized Rifle Division in the Novoprokopivka vicinity is expending substantial efforts to sustain its current positions.
  • The adversary’s plan to attack the “Tavriya” OSG flanks on the directions of Kopani – Robotyne and Novofedorivka – Mala Tokmachka has failed.
  • On the Tokmak axis, the adversary’s forces have not yet relinquished their capacity to retain crucial tactical lines, positions, and strongholds.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 37 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG repelled a Russian attack north of Zybyne. They continued localized offensive actions in the Kreminna area, and attacked Russian positions near Torske.
  • Russian forces attempted to advance west of Svatove and repelled two Ukrainian attacks near Dibrova. Positional battles are ongoing northeast of Kupyansk.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG achieved success east of Andriivka. They are advancing towards the railway line near Klishchiivka.
  • Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to retake lost positions east of Dyliivka, Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. They are holding recently captured positions near Orikhovo-Vasylivka. Units of the Russian 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps repelled a Ukrainian attack on the Horlivka direction.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the forces of the “Tavriya” OSG launched attacks near Krasnohorivka and Pervomaiske. 
  • Russian forces made up to 20 unsuccessful attempts to retake lost positions near Avdiivka, improve tactical positions near Lastochkine, and unsuccessfully attacked near Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, and Novomykhailivka.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): The enemy’s 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army continue to hold Pryiutne-Zavitne Bazhannia defense line, ensuring the stability of the Staromlynivka defensive sector and the unimpeded functionality of the Novozlatopil – Staromlynivka – Novomayorske rocade. The 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division attempted to push back the advanced units of the “Tavriya” OSG from the northern outskirts of Pryiutne and break through to the ponds between Pryiutne and Novodarivka.
  • Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Staromayorske, Novodarivka, Pryiutne, and Urozhaine.
  • The reserve of the enemy’s “Vostok” operational grouping consists of the 40th and 336th Separate Marine Brigades, the 5th Separate Tank Brigade, and 5 separate battalions of the 1st Army Corps.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Zolota Nyva and Rivnopol, preventing the enemy from reclaiming previously lost positions near Urozhaine and Novomayorske.
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): The “Tavriya” OSG forces have resumed intense offensive and assault actions. In order to hold their positions on the first defensive line, the enemy conducted a series of counterattacks with the forces of the 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army and pushed back the advanced units of the Defense Forces from the northern outskirts of Novoprokopivka. The enemy’s 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division attempted a counterattack from the northwest outskirts of Verbove towards the rear and flank of Ukrainian units engaged in active operations to the west of the village. The deployment of the 1152nd Motorized Rifle Regiment from the Russian Territorial troops to the west of Verbove did not alter the situation. The “Tavriya” OSG forces are close to liberating Novoprokopivka.
  • The 104th Air Assault Regiment of the enemy’s 76th Air Assault Division failed to reach the western outskirts of Robotyne and lost several forward positions in this area. The enemy’s 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment near Nesteryanka was compelled to withdraw east of the village, relinquishing several positions. West of Verbove, the tactical situation of the 234th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division is gradually deteriorating. The 108th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division, tasked with expanding the penetration in the village area along the T0803 road, was forced to retreat.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational zone, there were 4 enemy ships on combat duty; in the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship, carrying cruise missiles; in the Mediterranean Sea, there were 3 enemy ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The missile carriers are not loaded.

Change in enemy disposition: 

  • The Russian military command in the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations has relocated the 55th and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 810th Separate Marine Brigade to the Kherson direction.

Escalation indicators: 

  • Escalation of combat intensity in the area of Makiyivka, Luhansk Oblast.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The adversary may launch active offensive operations on the Kupyansk direction between October 5th and 8th. Potential axes for the forthcoming offensive could include advances towards Petropavlivka through Synkivka, towards Petropavlivka through Pershotravneve, and towards Kupyansk-Vuzlovy through Stepova Novoselivka.
  • The most likely commencement of the enemy’s offensive will encompass heightened combat activity along the Lyman Pershyi – Synkivka and Vilshana – Synkivka axes. For this purpose, they have amassed forces, including the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army, the 1483rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops, and the “Storm-Z” units. The anticipated course of action involves one strike group launching an attack from Lyman Pershyi through the forest, attempting to break through along the Oskil River to the south, bypassing Synkivka from the west. The second group will attempt to break through along the road from Vilshana to Synkivka along the forest’s edge.
  • The enemy may address the Synkivka defensive node of the “Khortytsia” OSG through the following alternative strategies:
    • An attempt by the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army to break through to Highway P07 from Pershotravneve;
    • A simultaneous attack by the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 245th Motorized Rifle Regiment, along with the 6th Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division in the area of Synkivka or Ivanivka, subsequent to the deployment of tactical reserves of the “Khortytsia” OSG; 
    • An attack in the direction of Yahidne – Ivanivka – Stepova Novoselivka, aiming to breach through to Petropavlivka, bypassing the Synkivka defensive node from the east.
  • The most probable course of action is a frontal attack by the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 47th Tank Division directly on the Synkivka fortified area.
  • The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is contemplating an organized withdrawal from Tokmak and Bakhmut in order to conserve forces for the defense of Melitopol and Berdyansk.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 06.10.23 

Personnel – almost 281,090 people (+620);

Tanks – 4,777 (+20);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,082 (+30);

Artillery systems – 6,666 (+23);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 806 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 540 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,015 (+35);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,158 (+29);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,530 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 12 regions of Ukraine. 138 towns and villages and 108 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the night of October 6, Ukrainian air defense destroyed 25 out of 33 enemy drones of the Shahed-131/136 type over Ukraine. Like on October 5, Russian forces launched another attack with the Shahed-type UAVs from Cape Chauda (temporarily occupied Crimea). Specifically, launches of 33 Shahed drones were detected, moving in several groups towards the southern, eastern, and central regions of Ukraine.
  • On October 6, around 7 AM, Russian forces launched missile strikes on two residential districts of Kharkiv, targeting residential buildings. From the rubble in the Slobidskyi district, the body of a 10-year-old child and his 67-year-old grandmother were recovered. The 11-month-old brother and the parents of the deceased were hospitalized with injuries. As of 18:00, search and rescue operations have been completed: 2 people have died, including one child, and 30 residents have been injured, 
  • The total number of fatalities following yesterday’s Russian strike on the rural café in the village of Hroza in Kharkiv Oblast, where a memorial service for a fallen soldier was taking place, has increased to 52. Another person has died in the hospital.  Four people are still considered missing.
  • On October 6, Ukraine repatriated the remains of 64 fallen defenders of Ukraine. In turn, following the norms of international humanitarian law, the Ukrainian side handed over the bodies (remains) of combatants who died due to armed aggression against Ukraine to the Russian side.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent