Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 07.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia,” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka and Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, there were 5 enemy attacks east of Makiyivka. The adversary unsuccessfully attempted to regain the lost position south of Andriivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault actions south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their achieved positions.

In the operational zone of the “Tavriya” (OSG) on the Avdiivka and Maryinka directions, the enemy conducted more than 10 unsuccessful attacks in the Maryinka and Novomykhailivka areas. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks near Vuhledar, Zolota Nyva, Staromayorske, and north of Pryiutne. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces are holding back the enemy northeast of Novoprokopivka.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk-Lyman line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, at the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, at the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and made progress on some sectors.

General conclusion: 

  • The adversary’s attacks in the areas of Novomayorske and Rivnopil are indicative of Russian forces’ attempts to regain the initiative in this locale and compel Ukrainian forces into responsive actions.
  • The Russian forces are experiencing communication and coordination challenges between the headquarters at the junction of the 5th and 36th Combined Arms Armies at the southern and southeastern periphery of Velyka Novosilka. These issues are exacerbating their inability to achieve success in counteroffensives within this sector.
  • Russian forces briefly reestablished, but subsequently lost, their tactical advantage near Robotyne in a series of counterattacks over the past few weeks.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces’ effective strikes on military infrastructure within the temporarily occupied Crimea, employing both aerial and maritime components, prompted the enemy’s command to prioritize bolstering their air defense and missile defense systems in the region.
  • As part of the reinforcement of air defense and missile defense in the temporarily occupied Crimea, the enemy’s command conducted a certain redeployment of forces and assets within their air component.
  • The enemy is experiencing significant difficulties with countering aerial targets at low and medium altitudes in Crimea.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 34 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces renewed their offensive in the vicinity of Synkivka. They conducted intensive shelling along the H26 Shevchenkove – Kupyansk highway, advanced northeast of Kupyansk, simultaneously launching attacks on specific sectors of the Svatove direction. They also attacked near Makiyivka, Torske, and Ivanivka but did not make progress.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG forces launched an attack near Kreminna. They attempted to retake lost positions near Yampolivka, Dibrova, and Kuzmyne.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces achieved success east of Andriivka, where the Battalion-Tactical Group of the Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced towards the railway line between Andriivka and Klishchiivka. 
  • Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions east of Dyliivka, south of Andriivka, and near Klishchiivka. They launched a counterattack near Hryhorivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the “Tavriya” OSG forces delivered local ground strikes on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line.
  • Russian forces continued ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line and made some progress south of Avdiivka near the E50 highway. They continued to advance in Maryinka, resumed the offensive on Krasnohorivka and Severne, and attempted to advance on the southern approaches to Avdiivka.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack near Pryiutne and launched counterattacks north and northeast of Rivnopol and from Novomayorske.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks north of Pryiutne, near Staromayorske and Zolota Nyva.
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): The “Tavriya” OSG forces advanced to the forest belt west of Verbove. Small groups of Ukrainian infantry continued to attack Russian positions on the Kopani – Robotyne line, where the enemy’s 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment (of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army) is constantly launching counterattacks. They also continued attacks near Verbove and Novoprokopivka.
  • Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions in the western part of Robotyne and launched a counterattack from the Verbove direction. Units of the Russian Airborne Forces attacked Ukrainian positions on the Kopani – Robotyne and Novofedorivka – Mala Tokmachka directions, attempting without success to alleviate pressure on Russian forces near Novoprokopivka. The 104th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division fell short of reaching the outskirts of Robotyne and even lost several positions near Kopani. The 108th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division attempted to establish a breakthrough wedge along the T0803 road but was unable to reach its objective and subsequently withdrew.
  • Kherson direction: The “Odesa” OSG forces hold positions on a narrow stretch of the eastern coast of Kherson Oblast near the Antonivskyi Bridge, on the Cossack Island. Local Ukrainian raids across the Dnipro indicate that Ukrainian forces are preparing for a broader offensive.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational maritime zone, there were 4 enemy ships on combat duty, including 1 cruise missile carrier. In the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship; in the Mediterranean Sea, there were 3 enemy ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The carriers of cruise missiles are not armed.
  • The adversary continues to exert significant efforts to comprehensively control the air, surface, and underwater situation in the northwestern, western, and central parts of the Black Sea waters. To fulfill this task, forces and assets of the naval aviation of the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Saky airbase, including 4 Su-30sm fighters, 2 MiG-29K fighters, 5 Su-24m bombers, and an Il-38 anti-submarine aircraft (from the composition of the 43th Separate Naval Assault Aviation Regiment), have been engaged.

Change in enemy disposition: 

  • The 79th Motorized Rifle Regiment (of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division, 11th Army Corps of the Russian Baltic Fleet), previously held in reserve within the adversary’s “West” force grouping, has begun deploying towards the Ivanivka – Velyki Vyselky area. The 1427th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops is deploying in the defense sector of the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. The adversary’s command has deployed at least 2 combined detachments “Storm-Z” on this direction, staffed with convicted citizens of the Russian Federation.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the 9th Artillery Brigade of the Russian 6th Combined Arms Army has been deployed. The artillery grouping in this sector currently encompasses of the 448th Rocket Artillery Brigade, 45th High-Power Artillery Brigade, and the 9th, 244th, and 288th Artillery Brigades, along with the 147th self-propelled artillery regiment (excluding artillery units at the division, brigade, and regimental levels.)
  • Additional 2 interceptor-fighter MiG-31BM, belonging to the 98th Separate Mixed Aviation Regiment of the 45th Army of the Air Force and Air Defense of the Russian Northern Fleet, have been relocated from the Monchegorsk airbase to the Belbek airbase.
  • Via the Kerch Bridge, 5 S-60 complexes with 57mm automatic anti-aircraft guns (AZP-57) have been relocated to Crimea.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The adversary may launch active offensive operations on the Kupyansk direction between October 5th and 8th. Potential axes for the forthcoming offensive could include advances towards Petropavlivka through Synkivka, towards Petropavlivka through Pershotravneve, and towards Kupyansk-Vuzlovy through Stepova Novoselivka.
  • The most likely commencement of the enemy’s offensive will encompass heightened combat activity along the Lyman Pershyi – Synkivka and Vilshana – Synkivka axes. For this purpose, they have amassed forces, including the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army, the 1483rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops, and the “Storm-Z” units. The anticipated course of action involves one strike group launching an attack from Lyman Pershyi through the forest, attempting to break through along the Oskil River to the south, bypassing Synkivka from the west. The second group will attempt to break through along the road from Vilshana to Synkivka along the forest’s edge.
  • The enemy may address the Synkivka defensive node of the “Khortytsia” OSG through the following alternative strategies:
    • An attempt by the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army to break through to Highway P07 from Pershotravneve;
    • A simultaneous attack by the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 245th Motorized Rifle Regiment, along with the 6th Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division in the area of Synkivka or Ivanivka, subsequent to the deployment of tactical reserves of the “Khortytsia” OSG; 
    • An attack in the direction of Yahidne – Ivanivka – Stepova Novoselivka, aiming to breach through to Petropavlivka, bypassing the Synkivka defensive node from the east.
  • The most probable course of action is a frontal attack by the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 47th Tank Division directly on the Synkivka fortified area.
  • The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is contemplating an organized withdrawal from Tokmak and Bakhmut in order to conserve forces for the defense of Melitopol and Berdiansk.
  • In the potential upcoming enemy’s effort to breach towards Kupyansk, it is probable that units from the 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army, along with the 1st and 15th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, will be engaged.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.10.23 

Personnel – almost 281,700 people (+610);

Tanks – 4,800 (+23);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,102 (+20);

Artillery systems – 6,688 (+22);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 808 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 541 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,073 (+58);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,185 (+27);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,530 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 93 towns and villages and 59 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Russian forces targeted Odesa Oblast with supersonic anti-ship missiles of the “Oniks” type. There were impacts on a pension house in the recreational zone and a grain storage facility in the port infrastructure. Four people were injured. Additionally, the enemy struck Poltava Oblast. 
  • As of the morning of October 7th, due to the full-scale aggression of the Russian Federation, 506 Ukrainian children have lost their lives in Ukraine, and 1,130 have been injured.

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