Russia’s war on Ukraine. 08.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia,”  on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka and Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 enemy attacks in the vicinity of Makiivka. On the Bakhmut direction, the adversary unsuccessfully attempted to regain the lost position near Andriivka.

In the operational zone of the “Tavriya” OSG on the Avdiivka and Maryinka directions, the enemy conducted over 20 unsuccessful attacks in the areas of Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, and Novomykhailivka. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled about 10 enemy attacks in the areas of Vodyane and Zolota Nyva.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions along the Kupyansk-Svatove- Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, in the western part of Donetsk Oblast, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, at the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast They made progress in some sectors.

General conclusion: 

• Russian forces deployed in the Klishchiivka area are facing difficulties due to issues with communication, reinforcements, and a lack of up-to-date intelligence on the actual situation on the battlefield.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been 68 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced up to 1 kilometer near Yahidne and close to Kotlyarivka. However, their attacks near Synkivka, Ivanivka, and Makiyivka were unsuccessful. They continue to target crossings over the Oskil River.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces launched attacks near Lyman Pershyi, Makiyivka, Dibrova, Yampolivka, Kuzmyne, Torske, and in Serebryansk Forest and advanced near Hryanykivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces advanced east of Andriivka. In other areas near Bakhmut, they managed to advance by 100-300 meters.
• Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions south of Andriivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces made slight advances in Maryinka after prolonged positional combat. They attacked near Novomykhailivka, unsuccessfully attempted to attack the southern approaches to Avdiivka, conducted reconnaissance in the area of Druzhba, and resumed the offensive in the Krasnohorivka area.
• The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled Russian assaults near Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, and Novomykhailivka.
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): The “Tavriya” OSG forces attacked north of Mykilske, near Pryiutne, Urozhaine, west of Staromayorske, and west of Novodonetske. They repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Vuhledar, Vodyane, near Zolota Nyva, Staromayorske, and Pryiutne.
• Russian forces are attempting to seize the initiative and launched counterattacks from positions in Novodonetske and Mykilske.
• Tokmak direction (Robotyne): The “Tavriya” OSG forces achieved partial success north of Kopani and north of Novoprokopivka. They resumed the offensive northwest of Verbove. 
• Russian forces conducted several unsuccessful counterattacks near Verbove and to the west of Robotyne.
• Kherson direction: The “Odesa” OSG forces are deploying marine infantry units on the front line in Kherson Oblast to prepare for further actions in the delta of the Dnipro River.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational maritime zone, there was 1 enemy ship on active duty, a cruise missile carrier; in the Mediterranean Sea – 3 enemy ships, including 1. The missile carriers were not loaded.
• The Russian military command has repositioned air defense and missile defense forces in Crimea.
• At Novorossiysk military naval base, a patrol ship of project 22160 has been docked in the dry dock. Additionally, 7 carriers of cruise missiles (2 missile frigates, 3 submarines of project 636.3, and 2 small missile ships of project 21631), 6 large landing ships, and a patrol ship of project 22160 have arrived at the base. One of the submarines remains outside the Tsemes Bay.

Escalation indicators: 

• There has been a sudden change in the intensity of combat operations on the Kupyansk direction.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The enemy may address the Synkivka defensive node of the “Khortytsia” OSG through the following alternative strategies:
  • An attempt by the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army to break through to Highway P07 from Pershotravneve;
  • A simultaneous attack by the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 245th Motorized Rifle Regiment, along with the 6th Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division in the area of Synkivka or Ivanivka, subsequent to the deployment of tactical reserves of the “Khortytsia” OSG; 
  • An attack in the direction of Yahidne – Ivanivka – Stepova Novoselivka, aiming to breach through to Petropavlivka, bypassing the Synkivka defensive node from the east.
• The most probable course of action is a frontal attack by the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 47th Tank Division directly on the Synkivka fortified area.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is contemplating an organized withdrawal from Tokmak and Bakhmut in order to conserve forces for the defense of Melitopol and Berdiansk.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 08.10.23 

Personnel – almost 282,280 people (+580);

Tanks – 4,821 (+21);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,123 (+21);

Artillery systems – 6,705 (+17);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 808 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 542 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,111 (+38);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,190 (+5);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,530 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine. 100 towns and villages and 124 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night, the enemy heavily shelled Kherson and the village in Kherson Oblast, resulting in 11 casualties, including a 9-month-old infant. Among the injured is a 33-year-old Red Cross medic who sustained explosive injuries and a concussion.

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