Russia’s war on Ukraine. 09.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia,” Ukrainian defenders repelled 3 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka and Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks in the area of Makiivka. On the Bakhmut direction, the Defence Forces repelled enemy attacks north of Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.

In the operational zone of the “Tavriya” OSG on the Avdiivka and Maryinka directions, the enemy carried out about 15 unsuccessful attacks in the Avdiivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka areas. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack north of Novoprokopivka.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk-Svatove- Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, in the western part of Donetsk Oblast, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, on the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They made progress in some sectors.

General conclusion: 

• Russian forces’ ultimate objective is to displace the “Khortytsia” OSG forces to the western bank of the Oskil River. However, they currently lack the requisite combat potential to achieve this goal in the immediate term.

• On the Kupyansk direction, the adversary has increased pressure along the Zherebets River line.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces abstain from direct engagement in the ravaged Kurdyumivka, instead opting to encircle the enemy from the flanks.
• Russian attacks on the Avdiivka and Maryinka directions aim to divert the “Tavriya” OSG’s attention and prevent the transfer of its reserves to the Zaporizhzhia direction.
• On the Hulyaipole – Fedorivka direction, the Russian 35th Army, formerly in reserve, has initiated combat operations. This underscores the significance accorded by the enemy command to both this axis and the overall defense of Berdyansk.
• The enemy’s “Vostok” grouping is the smallest among its formations on the South-Western Theater of Military Operations. However, it covers two pivotal directions – Berdyansk and Volnovakha-Mariupol. Notably, the majority of its forces are deployed on the Berdyansk direction. This grouping primarily comprises infantry (rifle) regiments, which are less adept for mobile operations.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 37 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced near Lyman Pershyi, the railway station Synkivka, along the Tymkivka – Ivanivka line, and in the direction of Orlianka – Yahidne. They progressed along the fortifications east of Makiivka, launched an attack near Petropavlivka and Kyslivka, and escalated aircraft deployment to bolster the intensification of offensive operations in these areas, compensating for the shortage of artillery.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled numerous Russian attacks near Synkivka and Ivanivka. They also attacked near Orlianka, Novoselivske, Makiivka, Dibrova, and Torske.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces achieved partial success northeast of Andriivka. They are attempting to bypass Kurdyumivka from the northeast and advancing towards Zelenopillia and attacking to gain tactical heights south of Bakhmut. They repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Andriivka, Klishchiivka, and Bohdanivka.
• Russian forces launched counterattacks and pushed back the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Berkhivka area, attacked in the direction of Dubovo-Vasylivka and Yakovlivka.
• Unfavorable weather conditions hinder aerial reconnaissance.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled 20 attacks by Russian forces near Avdiivka, in the area of Pervomaiske, and near Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, and Novomykhailivka.
• Berdyansk Direction (Velyka Novosilka): Enemy forces repelled Ukrainian attacks northeast of Mykilske, west of Novodonetske, west of Novodonetske, and north of Pryiutne.
• The “Tavriya” OSG are attempting to regain lost positions west of Novodonetske and repelled 10 Russian attacks near Vodyane and Zolota Nyva.
• Tokmak Direction (Robotyne): Battles persist on the primary position of the adversary’s main defensive line between Novoprokopivka and Verbove, with a primary focus on securing control of height 170, which is being defended by units from the 71st and 201st Motorized Rifle Regiments along with the BARS detachment.
• The enemy artillery continues to conduct concentrated fire strikes on the area northwest of Verbove and in the southern part of Robotyne, attempting to disrupt the organization and execution of any assault actions by the advanced units of the “Tavriya” OSG towards Novoprokopivka and Verbove.
• The 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division has temporarily ceased counterattacks west of Verbove.
• The advanced units of the enemy’s 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Army attacked in the direction of Marfopil – Chervone. They managed to advance several hundred meters in the gray zone, where they subsequently entrenched.
• Over a span of three days, within the defensive sector of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, the enemy’s command introduced the 1441st and 1152nd Motorized Rifle Regiments of Territorial Troops. The 1429th and 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiments, previously engaged in battle here, sustained losses in intense combat and were subsequently withdrawn to the second line due to diminished combat effectiveness.
• In the Kherson direction, the “Odesa” OSG are deploying units of marine infantry to the front in the Kherson Oblast in preparation for further actions in the delta of the Dnipro River.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational maritime zone, 1 enemy ship, a carrier of cruise missiles, was on combat duty with a total salvo of 4 missiles. There were 3 enemy ships in the Mediterranean Sea, including 1 cruise missile carrier.
• The adversary has redeployed two squadrons of MiG-31 aircraft from the 98th Mixed Aviation Regiment of the Russian Northern Fleet, stationed at the Monchegorsk airfield, to the Belbek airfield to counteract the air-launched cruise missile-equipped Su-24M aircraft of the Defense Forces.

Change in the enemy’s disposition: 

• The 51st Air Assault Regiment of the 106th Air Assault Division has been relocated to the Kurdyumivka area.
• The adversary’s military grouping “Vostok” has completed its reorganization. As a result, it comprises 11 brigades, 12 regiments, 10 formations at the “battalion” level, with personnel totaling up to 48,000 servicemen. Additionally, it possesses 186 tanks (of which 100 are within the 5th Separate Tank Brigade), 670 armored fighting vehicles, up to 400 artillery pieces and Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and up to 8 Iskander missile systems. The reserve of the grouping includes one regiment and a separate battalion.

Escalation indicators: 

• The deployment of the adversary’s 35th Combined Arms Army on the Berdyansk front.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The enemy may address the Synkivka defensive node of the “Khortytsia” OSG through the following alternative strategies:
  • An attempt by the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army to break through to Highway P07 from Pershotravneve;
  • A simultaneous attack by the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 245th Motorized Rifle Regiment, along with the 6th Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division in the area of Synkivka or Ivanivka, subsequent to the deployment of tactical reserves of the “Khortytsia” OSG; 
  • An attack in the direction of Yahidne – Ivanivka – Stepova Novoselivka, aiming to breach through to Petropavlivka, bypassing the Synkivka defensive node from the east.
• The most probable course of action is a frontal attack by the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 47th Tank Division directly on the Synkivka fortified area.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is contemplating an organized withdrawal from Tokmak and Bakhmut in order to conserve forces for the defense of Melitopol and Berdiansk.
• The enemy will persist in attempting to offset their artillery losses by escalating the frequency of aerial operations.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 09.10.23 

Personnel – almost 282,630 people (+350);

Tanks – 4,823 (+2);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,126 (+3);

Artillery systems – 6,706 (+1);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 808 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 543 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,113 (+2);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,190 (0);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,530 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 8 regions of Ukraine. 77 towns and villages and 54 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On October 9, the Russian forces shelled residential areas and civilian infrastructure in Kherson Oblast. At least 4 people were injured due to enemy shelling.
• Due to the aggression of the Russian Federation, over 1,700 objects of cultural infrastructure have been damaged in Ukraine. The cultural infrastructure has suffered the greatest losses and damages in the Donetsk, Kherson, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
• Currently, around 6 million people in Ukraine are at risk from landmines, stated Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal. To date, around 250 casualties have resulted from mines in Ukraine, with over 500 individuals sustaining injuries or permanent impairments. Should no action be taken, or conventional methods employed, an additional approximate 9 thousand individuals may face harm or lose their lives due to mines in Ukraine. It has been reported by the Prime Minister that as of the present time, an area spanning 174 thousand square kilometers in Ukraine remains affected by landmines or unexploded ordnance.
• Ukraine has successfully repatriated nine more children who were taken by [Russian] occupiers from Kherson Oblast, reported the Head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration, Oleksandr Prokudin. In total, since the outset of 2023, 121 children from Kherson Oblast have been returned to territories under Ukrainian control. This accomplishment was facilitated by the “Save Ukraine” organization, with support from the Office of the Commissioner for Human Rights of the Verkhovna Rada and the Ministry for Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine.

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