Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 10.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 5 enemy attacks near Synkivka and Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 enemy attacks in the area of Makiivka. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks near Klishchiivka. The Defense Forces continue their assault actions south of Bakhmut. They have achieved partial success in the area of Andriivka, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their gained positions.

In the operational zone of the “Tavriya” OSG on the Avdiivka and Maryinka directions, the enemy conducted over 15 unsuccessful attacks in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled an enemy attack near Staromayorske. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, Ukrainian forces are holding back the enemy near Levadne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk-Svatove- Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, in the western part of Donetsk Oblast, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and at the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They made progress in some sectors.

General conclusion: 

  • Enemy attacks near Synkivka and Ivanivka have intensified, despite reduced activity of aviation and UAVs in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction due to heavy rains.
  • Russian forces have altered their tactics on the Bakhmut direction, increasingly utilizing compact groups comprised of 4-8 individuals to circumvent Ukrainian positions, demonstrating skillful maneuvering instead of employing large waves of infantry in direct attacks.
  • The operational-tactical grouping of the enemy on the Bakhmut direction surpasses certain operational-strategic groupings of enemy forces in Ukraine in terms of its quantitative composition. This grouping concentrates up to 60-65% of the armament and equipment of the Russian “South” Group of Forces. Among the brigade-regiment level formations, over half are understaffed by 30-35% of their authorized personnel strength, and an additional 10-15% are only staffed at 55-60% capacity.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been 39 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces captured positions near Ivanivka, Nevske, northeast of Kupyansk, and advanced up to 1 km near Makiivka.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Makiivka, Synkivka, and Ivanivka. They also launched attacks near Synkivka, Makiivka, Dibrova, Torske, and Orlianka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces achieved tactical success near Klishchiivka and Andriivka; Intense battles persist for control of the heights along the railroad track between Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
  • The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces captured the commander of the volunteer battalion “Alga” form the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps of the enemy.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces continued their attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line. Units of the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps and the “Storm-Z” detachment made slight progress southeast of Novomykhailivka and carried out nearly 15 unsuccessful attacks near Avdiivka and Maryinka.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Pryiutne and Mykilske and unsuccessfully attacked near Novodonetske.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces continue attempts to seize tactical initiative near Pryiutne, repelling Russian attacks in the areas of Staromayorske and Levadne.
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): Russian forces attacked south of Hulyaipole. Combat engagements continue near Marfopil, with Russian forces gaining tactical initiative in the area but conducting attacks at a battalion level or smaller. Units of the 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army have advanced a few hundred meters in the contested “gray zone” towards Marfopil – Chervone. Units of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division are conducting clearance operations on the northern outskirts of Novoprokopivka.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces achieved success west of Verbove, advanced towards Kopani, between Robotyne and Novodanylivka, and repelled the enemy’s advance north of Novoprokopivka.
  • Fierce battles are ongoing along the Robotyne – Verbove line.
  • Kherson direction: “Odesa” OSG forces conducted a local raid across the Dnipro. Several boats of the Ukrainian Defense Forces attempted reconnaissance near Antonivskyi Bridge, but Russian forces repelled the landing attempt.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational zone, there was 1 enemy ship, a cruise missile carrier, on combat duty; in the Mediterranean Sea, there were 2 enemy ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The cruise missile carriers did not have cruise missiles on board.

Change in the enemy’s disposition: 

  • Units of the 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps are deployed near Berestove.
  • The combined formation of the Russian Armed Forces in the South-Western Theater of Military Operations, directly engaged in combat on Ukrainian territory (excluding formations deployed in the Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod regions of Russia), comprises over 429,000 personnel, 2,347 tanks, 5,653 armored combat vehicles (ACVs), 3,186 artillery pieces, 974 multiple rocket launchers (MRLs), and up to 46 ballistic missile launchers. This formation encompasses 58 brigades, 133 regiments, 106 separate battalions, as well as 46 “Storm-Z”, BARS, and “volunteer” detachments.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is contemplating an organized withdrawal from Tokmak and Bakhmut in order to conserve forces for the defense of Melitopol and Berdyansk.
  • The enemy will continue to try to compensate for their artillery losses by increasing the intensity of aviation employment.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.10.23 

Personnel – almost 283,080 people (+450);

Tanks – 4,829 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,129 (+3);

Artillery systems – 6,713 (+7);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 808 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 544 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,125 (+12);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,207 (+17);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,530 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 92 towns and villages and 68 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • The defense forces destroyed 27 out of 36 Russian “Shaheds” drones during the night. In Odesa Oblast, drone attacks resulted in hits on logistical infrastructure, with no casualties reported.
  • On October 10, as a result of the Russian shelling of the village of Uhroidy in Sumy Oblast, a 13-year-old child was injured and later died in emergency, the school building was damaged. In Kherson Oblast, a woman was injured due to enemy shelling. As a result of Russian shelling of the Bakhmut and Pokrovsk districts of Donetsk Oblast, three individuals were injured, including a 16-year-old girl.

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