Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 11.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian troops repelled over 30 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka and Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to contain the enemy’s advance near Makiyivka and Dibrova. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled enemy attacks in the Klishchiivka and Andriivka areas. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue offensive operations south of Bakhmut, achieving success in areas east of Klishchiivka and east of Andriivka.

In the operational zone of the “Tavriya” OSG on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy, deploying forces of up to three battalions, supported by tanks and armored vehicles, intensified its offensive actions in the areas of Avdiivka, Tonenke, Keramik, and Pervomaiske. Ukrainian forces repelled all enemy attacks and prevented any breaches of positions. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled over 10 enemy attacks in the areas of Maryinka and Krasnohorivka over the past day. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Zolota Nyva and Volodyne. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, Ukrainian defenders are holding back the enemy in the areas of Inzhenerne and Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions along the Kupyansk-Svatove- Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, in the western part of Donetsk Oblast, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, at the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They made progress in some sectors.

General conclusion: 

  • The enemy has initiated a series of offensive operations on the Kupyansk direction, deploying powerful armored groups near Synkivka, Ivanivka, and Makiyivka. This development was anticipated by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
  • Russian forces have intensified their offensive actions northwest of Avdiivka in the areas of Ocheretyne, Tonenke, Berdychi, and southwest of Avdiivka along the Vodyane-Opytne line.
  • Russian forces attacked southwest of Orikhove along the Pyatykhatky-Zherebyanky line and advanced 2 kilometers in this area.
  • The enemy command failed to regain the first defensive positions of their main defensive line on the Tokmak direction.
  • Russian forces are attempting to cut off the ground logistics routes of the “Tavria” OSG, which supply the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka, with the intent to encircle it. However, the Russian forces are conducting an operation to impede the Defense Forces near Avdiivka, but their objective is not to fully encircle Avdiivka operationally.
  • The operational situation on the Berdyansk direction mirrors that of early August. The enemy has once again shifted a portion of their forces and assets north of the Pryiutne – Zavitne Bazhannia line, but they were unable to fully fortify the left flank of their Staromlynivka defense sector.
  • The enemy managed to eliminate the threat to their tactical position in the Pryiutne area and maintains control over the pivotal Height 180, which holds great significance for this sector. Within the defense sector of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, on the Staromayorske – Zavitne Bazhannia axis, the tactical situation for the enemy remains steady.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 108 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the Russian 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade attacked the forward positions of the “Khortytsia” OSG forces towards Synkivka. The advance units of the enemy’s 47th Tank Division initiated attacks towards Yahidne-Ivanivka. Enemy forces from the 25th Combined Arms Army attacked in the area of Makiyivka, advanced along the Novovodyanе – Ploschanka line and deploying motorized infantry, tank units, and assault detachments “Storm-Z” towards the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line. These units are inadequately adapted for operations in minefields.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces continue offensive actions south of Bakhmut and achieved success in the Andriivka area. They repelled Russian attacks at Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
  • Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka and launched an attack from Dubovo-Vasylivka towards Bohdanivka. Battles are ongoing near the railroad track in the area of Andriivka and Klishchiivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces intensified their offensive in the Avdiivka area. With the support of tanks and armored vehicles, up to three Russian battalions launched active offensive actions near Avdiivka, Tonenke, Keramik, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka. They also attacked from Krasnohorivka towards Berdychi and reached its outskirts. Fierce battles are ongoing near Ocheretyne.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): the Russian 5th Combined Arms Army, reinforced by units from the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army, encountered some difficulties after a partial success at the Pryiutne – Zavitne Bazhannia line. While the enemy managed to make some progress on the Pryiutne-Novodarivka and Pryiutne-Rivnopol axes, pushing back forward units of the “Tavria” OSG from Pryiutne, they faced challenges on the neighboring right flank. Units of the 60th and 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades attempted to advance towards the southern and western outskirts of Staromykhailivka. However, they were unable to fully stabilize the front line.
  • The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the enemy 68th Army Corps is trying to secure its positions in the Volnovakha area and the adjacent territory, with the aim of reducing the Vuhledar bridgehead of the “Tavria” OSG forces. To achieve this, the enemy has intensified activities in the Solodke area and towards Slavne – Novomykhailivka.
  • The forces of the “Tavria” OSG have advanced to the northeast of Mykilske, launched an attack near Pryiutne and west of Novodonetske. They are holding back the Russian forces near Levadne.
  • Tokmak Direction (Robotyne): It is likely that the enemy had to execute a withdrawal in the southern direction within the defensive sector of the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian 42nd Motorized Rifle Division and the adjacent 1441st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Defense, northwest of Novoprokopivka. On the adjacent right flank, the 71st and 201st Motorized Rifle Regiments continue to maintain control of the northern outskirts of the village, occasionally launching counterattacks against the advancing units of the “Tavria” OSG forces in the direction of Robotyne. Russian forces made unsuccessful counterattacks near Novoprokopivka and northwest of Verbove.
  • Units of the “Tavria” OSG have advanced to the approaches of Hight 170, further southwest of Verbove. They progressed to the west of Novofedorivka, and launched an attack on Novoprokopivka.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational zone, there were 3 enemy ships on combat duty, including 2 cruise missile carriers. In the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship, and in the Mediterranean Sea, there were 2 enemy ships. The missile carriers did not have cruise missiles on board.

Change in the enemy’s disposition: 

  • The main forces of the 68th Army Corps are amassed in the area of Solodke–Slavne–Taramchuk–Berezove (the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade), while several consolidated tactical groups, formed from the regiments of the 18th Machine Gun – Artillery Division, provide coverage for the direction towards Pilne – Novotroitske.

Escalation indicators: 

  • A threefold increase in the number of combat engagements on all fronts within a day.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is contemplating an organized withdrawal from Tokmak and Bakhmut in order to conserve forces for the defense of Melitopol and Berdyansk.
  • The enemy will continue to try to compensate for their artillery losses by increasing the intensity of aviation employment.
  • The enemy’s 150th Motorized Rifle Division and the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade will attempt to clear Maryinka and advance towards Kurakhove.
  • The enemy’s “Vostok” Group of Forces will form a combat-ready tactical group in the area between Mykilske and Novomayorske for offensive actions in the northern direction.
  • On the Volnovakha direction, the enemy command may be preparing to conduct an operation at the junction of the “Vostok” and “Yug” Groups of Forces with the intent of encircling the “Tavriya” OSG forces in the vicinity of Vuhledar, albeit constrained by available resources.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.10.23 

Personnel – almost 283,900 people (+820);

Tanks – 4,863 (+34);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,220 (+91);

Artillery systems – 6,731 (+18);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 809 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 545 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,145 (+20);

Aircraft – 316 (+1);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,229 (+19);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,530 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 8 regions of Ukraine. 121 towns and villages and 107 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On October 11, the Russian army shelled Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, resulting in the destruction of a gymnasium. 4 Ukrainian civilians lost their life due to the shelling. Approximately fifty private houses, infrastructure facilities, solar panels, a store, and a car were damaged in the city. In Kherson Oblast, the Russian military attacked with a drone a funeral procession on a cemetery, injuring three people.

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