Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 12.10.2023

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled more than 10 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka and Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, the Defense Forces continue to contain the enemy’s advance in the areas of Makiyivka, Torske, and Serebryansk Forestry, where they repelled over 15 enemy attacks. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian Defence Forces thwarted enemy attacks near Andriivka and are conducting assault actions south of Bakhmut. They achieved success in the areas east of Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are maintaining their positions. They repelled over 10 enemy attacks in the Avdiivka area and 10 attacks east of Stepove, southeast of Severne, and south of Pervomaiske. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces successfully repelled more than 10 enemy attacks in the areas of Maryinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy’s offensive actions south of Zolota Nyva and southeast of Vuhledar were futile. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Defense Forces are holding back the enemy in the Verbove area.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions along the Kupyansk-Svatove- Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, in the western part of Donetsk Oblast, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, at the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They made progress in some sectors.

General conclusion: 

  • The enemy is attempting to seize the strategic initiative, under the assumption that the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ offensive on the Zaporizhzhia direction has reached a point of attrition. This attempt constitutes a coordinated operation, both spatially and temporally, by the operational-tactical groups on the Kupyansk and Avdiivka directions.
  • Prior to initiating operations, the Russian military command undertook substantial efforts to reinstate the combat readiness of their forces, with a primary focus on personnel replenishment. Steps were taken to ensure operational agility in executing actions.
  • The enemy is not prepared for conducting a strategic operation.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have placed considerable emphasis on counter-battery warfare, employ EW systems, conduct thorough artillery preparation of the battlefield, and exhibit clear coordination among command, assault groups, aerial reconnaissance, and artillery units. Despite their efforts, the enemy has been unable to encircle the city. Presently, their primary forces are concentrated in the southwest vicinity. The enemy grouping’s objective is to displace the forces of the “Tavria” OSG from the fortified area, posing a potential encirclement threat.
  • From the first days of resuming active combat operations in the Avdiivka area, the Russian military command has engaged the main forces of the 1st Army Corps and a significant portion of the 8th Army – the 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions.
  • The enemy’s artillery is particularly active targeting the vicinity of the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, the northern sector of Avdiivka, and the village of Berdychi. This pattern suggests a focused concentration of their efforts in these areas.
  • The enemy controls certain segments of the H20 highway Donetsk–Kostiantynivka–Kramatorsk–Slovyansk and other routes passing in close proximity to Avdiivka.
  • In the area of Robotyne–Verbove–Novoprokopivka, the Russian military command has started to replace the 7th and 76th Air Assault Divisions, which have lost combat potential in previous battles, with mobilized units from Territorial Troops.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been 95 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the forces of the Russian 25th Army and units of the 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade advanced along the railway from Lyman Pershyi and progressed 1 kilometer towards Synkivka. Units of the 26th Tank Regiment (of the 47th Tank Division, the 1st Tank Army) launched unsuccessful attacks in the directions of Pershotravneve – Hight 195.1 and Yahidne–Ivanivka. Forces of the 25th Army advanced near Makiivka and Nevske. In an attempt to divert reserves of the “Khortytsia” OSG from the Kupyansk direction, the enemy engaged units of the 13th Tank Regiment of the 4th Tank Division in the direction of Dzherelne–Andriivka, but faced failure. Units of the 237th Tank Regiment and 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Army continue their efforts to expand their success in the direction of Makiivka and made some progress. Units of the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division attacked in the Serebryansk Forest area but were unable to accomplish their tasks.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG forces persist in holding back Russian troops near Makiivka and Dibrova, while making progress towards Zolotarivka. During the past four days of combat, the 66th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Defence Forces successfully neutralized 25 enemy tanks along its defensive perimeter.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces have achieved success east of Klishchiivka and Andriivka. They are attempting to secure positions along the railway line east of Andriivka, and battles are ongoing near Kurdyumivka. 
  • Russian forces launched unsuccessful attacks near Andriivka and Klishchiivka. They counterattacked on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut and are trying to seize the initiative on the Bakhmut direction. Near Klishchiivka, the enemy’s 38th and 150th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades and the 7th BARS detachment have been decisively defeated. They withdrew and are attempting to consolidate positions along the highway T0513. Additionally, the enemy was forced to withdraw from Zelenopillia. The 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the “Khortytsia” OSG repelled a Russian attack in the direction of Stepove – Berdychi through the Siversky Donets–Donbas Canal.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy launched attacks with the forces of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps towards Krasnohorivka–Novokalynove, Krasnohorivka–Stepove, Kamyanka–northern outskirts of Avdiivka, Kruta Balka–eastern outskirts of Avdiivka. The 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps attacked towards Vodyane–Severne, Pesky–Pervomaiske. The 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps attacked towards Spartak–southern outskirts of Avdiivka, Opytne–Severne. The 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade attacked towards Staromykhailivka – Krasnohorivka, the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army) attacked towards Oleksandrivka–Novomykhailivka, the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment (the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army) attacked towards Oleksandrivka–Pobeda, and the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps of the Russian Pacific Fleet attacked towards Slavne–Novomykhailivka. Units of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army attacked in the northern and central parts of Maryinka. The enemy did not achieve success in any of the directions.
  • Russian forces are attempting to break through the defense of the “Tavriya” OSG southwest of Krasnohorivka, trying to reach the outskirts of Severne and Tonenke. The attacks are supported by active aviation actions, predominantly Su-25 aircraft, and combat helicopters Ka-52 and Mi-28.
  • The “Tavria” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Ocheretyne, Keramik, Berdychi, Stepove, Tonenke, Avdiivka, Lastochkyne, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, Pobeda, and Novomykhailivka. The 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Defence Forces demonstrated exceptional valor. Upon detecting Russian columns positioned 5-10 kilometers from the front line, the “Tavria” OSG artillery inflicted severe casualties, disrupting their organized advance to the attack. Remarkably, just one enemy’s 90th Tank Division lost about 800 personnel and 80 pieces of armored equipment within a single day.
  • Berdiansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks south of Novomykhailivka, northwest of Pryiutne. They counterattacked from Pryiutne towards Levadne, near Kopani, and attacked near Inzhenerne and Verbove but could not secure further advancement towards Rivnopol and Staromayorske. Battles are ongoing near Novodonetske. The Russian 5th and 49th Armies’ forces partially succeeded on the Pryiutne – Zavitne Bazhannia line.
  • The “Tavria” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks southeast of Vuhledar, near Zolota Nyva and Volodyne. They improved their tactical positions west of Robotyne, and continued attacks near Novoprokopivka and Verbove.
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): The “Tavria” OSG forces took advantage of the rotation of enemy troops and attacked Kopani, Novoprokopivka, and Verbove, forcing the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 1441st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops to retreat from their positions to the northwest of Novoprokopivka.
  • Melitopol direction (Pyatykhatky): The resurgence of Russian attacks in the Zherebyanka – Pyatykhatky sector caught Ukrainian forces off guard. The enemy managed to advance several hundred meters.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational zone, there were 3 enemy ships on combat duty, including 1 cruise missile carrier; in the Sea of Azov, there was 1 enemy ship; in the Mediterranean Sea, there were 2 enemy ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The carriers did not have cruise missiles on board.
  • Upon leaving Sevastopol Bay, the patrol corvette “Pavel Derzhavin” of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy detonated a mine.

Change in the enemy’s disposition: 

  • North of Avdiivka in the Donetsk direction, the enemy has relocated the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army, concentrating in the Novoselivka Druha village.
  • As part of the deployment of the 47th Tank Division on the Kupyansk direction, starting from October 9th, the 153rd Tank Regiment is being moved from Nizhnegorodskaya Oblast (Russia) through the railway stations of Kantemirovka and Zaytsevka (Voronezh Oblast, Russia). This regiment comprises 94 tanks, 32 armored combat vehicles, 12 D-30 howitzers, and up to 140 automotive and special equipment units.

Escalation indicators: 

  • The enemy is increasing its efforts on the Kupyansk and Avdiivka directions.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The enemy’s “Vostok” Group of Forces will form a combat-ready tactical group in the area between Mykilske and Novomayorske for offensive actions in the northern direction.
  • On the Volnovakha direction, the enemy command may be preparing to conduct an operation at the junction of the “Vostok” and “Yug” Groups of Forces with the intent of encircling the “Tavriya” OSG forces in the vicinity of Vuhledar, albeit constrained by available resources.
  • After concentrating in the area of Novoselivka Druha, the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army will be employed by the enemy’s command to increase efforts in the direction of Krasnohorivka – Stepove, and further – towards Berdychi.
  • The 153rd Tank Regiment, formed in the composition of the 47th Tank Division, will be employed as a follow-up echelon in the direction of Pershotravneve–Petropavlivka, jointly with the 26th Tank Regiment of the same division.
  • The command of the 68th Army Corps of the Russian Pacific Fleet, launching an assault towards Maryinka–Kurakhove, aims to encircle the Vuhledar enclave held by the Defense Forces.
  • The Russian military command will concentrate its efforts where it potentially can achieve the greatest success: to the north and south of Avdiivka (9th and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades), on the directions of Vodyane–Severne and Krasnohorivka–Stepove. In order to secure the flanks of these tactical groups, the enemy will launch attacks in the areas of Pervomaiske, Novokalynove, and Keramik.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.10.23 

Personnel – almost 284,890 people (+990);

Tanks – 4,905 (+42);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,264 (+44);

Artillery systems – 6,763 (+33);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 811 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 545 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,170 (+25);

Aircraft – 316 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,247 (+21);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,531 (+1);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 12 regions of Ukraine. 180 towns and villages and 180 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the night, the Russian occupiers launched 33 “Shahed” drones on Ukraine. Of these, 28 were successfully intercepted by the Air Defense Forces. As the result of the drone attacks, warehouses in the port area in the south of Odesa Oblast and private houses were damaged. Preliminary information reports one person injured. Preliminary information indicates that an enemy “Shahed” drone struck the Industrial District of Kharkiv. Two private residential buildings were damaged, and a fire broke out. A 57-year-old man was injured. In total, 14 “Shahed” drones were destroyed over Odesa Oblast, 4 over Mykolaiv Oblast, 3 over Kharkiv Oblast, and 1 each over Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Cherkasy Oblasts. Additionally, in Cherkasy Oblast, a drone targeted an open area.
  • Police forensics have identified all the deceased due to the Russian missile strike on a cafe in the village of Groza in Kharkiv Oblast. According to the Minister of Internal Affairs Igor Klymenko, “59 people were killed by the Russians due to a direct hit by an ‘Iskander’ missile in the village of Groza. All the victims were local residents. Pensioners, medical professionals, farmers, teachers, entrepreneurs. All of them were civilians. Entire families spanning multiple generations perished.”

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