Russia’s war on Ukraine. 13.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defensive Forces repelled five enemy attacks in the vicinity of Synkivka and eight attacks near Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, the Defense Forces continue to contain the enemy’s advance in the areas of Makiyivka, southwest of Kreminna, and Serebryansk Forestry, where they repelled over five enemy attacks. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian forces continue offensive operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in attempts to breach Ukrainian defense, albeit unsuccessfully. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled over 20 enemy attacks in the areas of Avdiivka, Lastochkine, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, over the past day, more than 10 enemy attacks were successfully repelled in the areas of Maryinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost ground in the vicinity of Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive operations in the Kupyansk area, along the Svatove- Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, in the outskirts of Donetsk, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, at the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They made progress in some sectors.

General conclusion: 

• Forces of the “Tavriya” OSG have reduced the pace of their offensive actions in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• The increased deployment of armored vehicles and aviation by Russian forces combined with their sustained attacks, strongly indicates the commencement of an offensive operation on the Avdiivka front, with the adversary achieving some degree of success.
• The Russian military command is making efforts to encircle Avdiivka.
• The destruction of the Ocheretyne railway station, crucial for providing logistics to the “Tavriya” OSG in the Avdiivka area, will complicate the supply of troops.
• The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are accumulating weapons for strikes against Ukraine’s energy facilities and its oil and gas complex.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 64 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces achieved tactical successes southwest of Orlianka, advanced towards Krokhmalne, near Synkivka, and captured several positions near Lyman Pershyi. They launched an attack near Kyslivka and Dibrova, shifted artillery and personnel to Kupyansk and Lyman directions, and concentrated forces on the Makiyivka direction in preparation for an advance in the area of Nevske.
• Forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG repelled Russian attacks near Synkivka, Ivanivka, Makiyivka, Torske, and Serebryansk Forest.
• On the Bakhmut direction, forces of “Khortytsia” OSG achieved tactical success east of Klishchiivka and east of Andriivka.
• Russian forces repelled three Ukrainian attacks near Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Ozaryanivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have advanced to the west and south of Krasnohorivka, south of the E50 highway, east of Pervomaiske, south of Novomykhailivka, in the vicinity of Severne. They captured a dominant height on the slagheap near the Avdiivka coke and chemical plant, entered Stepove, seized a section of the railway immediately south of Avdiivka, and attempted to advance towards Keramik. Battles are ongoing near the northeastern outskirts of Berdychi, on the southern outskirts of Avdiivka, and west of Vesele. Enemy armored vehicles are trying to breach Ukrainian defenses southeast of Severne. Russian forces are attacking north of Vodyane and near Stepove and destroyed the Ocheretyne railway station.
• The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks on Avdiivka, Stepove, Lastochkine, Tonenke, Nevelske, southeast of Severne, and south of Pervomaiske. They effectively repelled over 10 Russian attacks near Maryinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka and severely damaged the bridge between Horlivka and Yasynuvata.
• On the Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka), forces of the “Tavriya” OSG repelled Russian attacks southeast of Vuhledar and launched an attack near Pryiutne. However,  overall, they have generally decreased their offensive activity in the area. 
• Units of the enemy’s 36th Army made some progress near Urozhaine and attacked Ukrainian positions near Novodonetske.
• On the Tokmak direction (Robotyne), forces of the “Tavriya” OSG improved their tactical position west of Robotyne. They launched attacks near Novoprokopivka and Novokarlivka.
• Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks on the Robotyne – Kopani line and near Verbove, where they counterattacked.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, there were 6 enemy ships on combat duty, including 1 cruise missile carrier. In the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship, and in the Mediterranean Sea, there were 4 enemy ships. The carriers do not have cruise missiles on board.

Escalation indicators: 

• The adversary is intensifying efforts on the Kupyansk and Avdiivka directions.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The 153rd Tank Regiment, formed in the composition of the 47th Tank Division, will be employed as a follow-up echelon in the direction of Pershotravneve–Petropavlivka, jointly with the 26th Tank Regiment of the same division.
• The Russian military command will concentrate its efforts where it potentially can achieve the greatest success: to the north and south of Avdiivka (9th and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades), on the directions of Vodyane–Severne and Krasnohorivka–Stepove. In order to secure the flanks of these tactical groups, the enemy will launch attacks in the areas of Pervomaiske, Novokalynove, and Keramik.
• After concentrating in the area of Novoselivka Druha, the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army will be employed by the enemy’s command to increase efforts in the direction of Krasnohorivka – Stepove, and further – towards Berdychi.
• On the Volnovakha direction, the enemy’s command, with the forces of the 68th Army Corps of the Russian Pacific Fleet, appears to be preparing for an operation at the junction of the “Vostok” and “Yug” Groups of Forces. Their objective is to encircle the “Tavriya” OSG forces near Vuhledar, launching an attack in the Maryinka-Kurakhove direction. However, they are constrained by their available resources.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 13.10.23 

Personnel – almost 285,920 people (+1,030);

Tanks – 4,931 (+26);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,313 (+49);

Artillery systems – 6,807 (+44);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 811 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 546 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,203 (+33);

Aircraft – 316 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,264 (+17);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,531 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 11 regions of Ukraine. 133 towns and villages and 118 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• In the morning of October 13, the Russian occupiers targeted the building of the Social Security Administration in Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast. This resulted in one fatality and thirteen injuries among civilians. At the time, there were over 50 employees and visitors inside the building. Another missile also struck a social infrastructure facility.
• At noon, the Russians repeatedly attacked Nikopol, two rescue workers were injured. They came under fire while extinguishing a minibus after a previous shelling.
• On October 13, in Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, the occupiers detonated an explosive device near a civilian vehicle. A 34-year-old woman was killed instantly. Her 36-year-old husband was hospitalized in extremely critical condition. Additionally, a 79-year-old woman was injured and hospitalized.

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