Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 14.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 12 enemy attacks in the Synkivka, Ivanivka, and Kyslivka areas. Additionally, the enemy conducted aerial strikes in this area. On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted aerial strikes in the areas of Nevske, Novoliubivka, Bilohorivka, Serebryansk Forestry, and Spirne. The Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the vicinity of Makiivka. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy conducted aerial strikes in the areas of Bila Hora, Oleksandro-Shultyne, and New York.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian troops maintain defense and repelled 10 enemy attacks in the vicinity of Avdiivka and over 15 attacks in the areas of Keramik, Tonenke, Severne, Pervomaiske, and Netaylove. Russian occupiers conducted aerial strikes in the areas of Novokalynove and Avdiivka. On the Maryinka direction, over the course of the day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled about 10 enemy attacks in the area of Maryinka. The enemy conducted aerial strikes on Maryinka and Novomykhailivka areas. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations with air support in the vicinity of Staromayorske. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost ground near Robotyne. Russian occupiers conducted an aerial strike in the Novoandriivka area.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, Russian occupiers conducted aerial strikes in the areas of Kozatske, Odradokamianka, Mykolaivka, Olhivka, Vysoke, and Ulyanivka.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Donetsk, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They made progress in some sectors.

General conclusion: 

  • Russian forces have reduced the employment of air-launched cruise missiles and are more frequently employing “Iskander” missiles. Russia has resumed the production of Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles and Kh-101 cruise missiles but faces challenges in increasing production volumes.
  • Units of the Russian 25th Combined Arms Army, recently concentrated in the Kreminna area, are conducting a “creeping advance” due to their lack of combat experience. The Army’s command acknowledges organizational mistakes that affect the troops’ ability to execute orders. The 25th Army demonstrates notable operational inefficiencies stemming from their expeditious front-line deployment.
  • The escalation of hostilities on the Avdiivka front has led to a reduction in enemy activity on the neighboring Bakhmut front, primarily attributed to an overall deficiency in resources, reserves, and logistical constraints along the north-to-south routes.
  • The enemy is attempting to resume the offensive on Lyman.
  • The escalation of hostilities in the Lyman direction is concentrated at the convergence point of the enemy “West” and “Center” Groups of Forces. This necessitates a sophisticated level of coordination between their respective headquarters, posing a significant challenge for the Russian military command.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been approximately 100 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced towards Krokhmalne, capturing several Ukrainian positions near Synkivka, Petropavlivka and west of Svatove. However, this does not currently hold operational significance. Near Torske, the enemy, attempting to block the Ukrainian supply route across the Oskil River, advanced towards Serebryanka from the direction of Kuzmyne, trying to break through the Ukrainian defense and reach the Siversky Donets River. They repelled Ukrainian attacks near Ivanivka, Synkivka, Dibrova, Yampolivka, Torske ledge and Serebryansk forest.
  • Forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG repelled Russian attacks near Synkivka, Ivanivka, Kyslivka, Makiyivka, and in the area of Serebryansk forest.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG continued assault operations south of Bakhmut. Battles are ongoing near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and along the Klishchiivka – Andriivka – Kurdyumivka line.
  • Russian forces achieved tactical success southwest of Zaliznyanske. They advanced half a kilometer near Klishchiivka and counterattacked near Andriivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced south of Krasnohorivka and southeast of Pervomaiske. They launched attacks from Vodyane and Opytne, as well as near Avdiivka, and attacked near Berdychi and along the railway northeast of Stepove. A Russian armored assault group captured several Ukrainian positions south of Novomykhailivka.
  • Forces of the “Tavriya” OSG repelled Russian attacks near Avdiivka, Tonenke, Severne, Lastochkine, Pervomaiske, Keramik, Netaylove, Nevelske, Maryinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Forces of the “Tavriya” OSG did not conduct any assaults north of Pryiutne over the past day.
  • Russian forces launched a counterattack near Novodonetske.
  • Ukrainian partisans set fire to a depot of Russian engineering and combat equipment and supplies for fortification construction near Mariupol. They effectively detonated a segment of the railway used by Russian forces to supply ammunition and fuel to troops operating on the Zaporizhzhia direction. As a result of the attack, 150 meters of railway tracks and a train, which daily transported fuel supplies and looted goods between Melitopol and occupied Crimea, were damaged.
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): Forces of the “Tavriya” OSG continued attacks along the Robotyne – Verbove line, attacking Russian positions in Novoprokopivka, near Verbove, and Robotyne.
  • Russian forces improved their positions near Pyatykhatky and made slight progress north of Kopani, but their attacks near Robotyne were unsuccessful.
  • Kherson direction: Russian forces are conducting defensive preparations in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast and Crimea against the backdrop of ongoing concern about Ukraine’s possible attempt to cross the Dnipro River. They are actively fortifying their frontline positions, laying mines, and constructing engineering fortifications. They have established at least three minefields near Kakhovka and Malokakhovka, and are swiftly restoring the Kerch Bridge.
  • The Russian “Dnepr” Group of Forces comprises 8 brigades, 18 regiments, and 3 separate battalions/detachments. The personnel strength currently stands at 65-70% of its total capacity.
  • The “Odesa” OSG forces are fortifying positions on the liberated islands in the Dnipro Delta and bridgeheads on the left bank.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational maritime zone, there were 7 enemy ships on combat duty, including 1 carrier of cruise missiles. In the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship, and in the Mediterranean Sea, there were 4 enemy ships. The carriers do not have cruise missiles on board.
  • A small missile ship “Buyan” was damaged by the strike of naval drones.

Changes in enemy disposition: 

  • The 29th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the enemy’s 36th Combined Arms Army is engaged in combat near Mykilske. The 108th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division is defending near Verbove.

Escalation indicators: 

  • The enemy is increasing efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Avdiivka directions.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The 153rd Tank Regiment, formed in the composition of the 47th Tank Division, will be employed as a follow-up echelon in the direction of Pershotravneve–Petropavlivka, jointly with the 26th Tank Regiment of the same division.
  • The enemy will attempt to launch an attack in the direction of Nevske and Torske, squeezing the forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG out of the area encompassing Makiyivka-Nevske-Torske-Yampolivka, with the aim of reaching Lyman and the eastern bank of the Oskil River.
  • After concentrating in the area of Novoselivka Druha, the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army will be employed by the enemy’s command to increase efforts in the direction of Krasnohorivka – Stepove, and further – towards Berdychi.
  • On the Volnovakha direction, the enemy’s command, with the forces of the 68th Army Corps of the Russian Pacific Fleet, appears to be preparing for an operation at the junction of the “Vostok” and “Yug” Groups of Forces. Their objective is to encircle the “Tavriya” OSG forces near Vuhledar, launching an attack in the Maryinka-Kurakhove direction. However, they are constrained by their available resources.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 14.10.23 

Personnel – almost 286,890 people (+970);

Tanks – 4,940 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,337 (+24);

Artillery systems – 6,833 (+26);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 811 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 547 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,225 (+22);

Aircraft – 317 (+1);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,265 (+1);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,531 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

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