Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 18.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled over 15 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Ivanivka, and Kyslivka, and another 9 attacks near Nadiya. On the Lyman direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost ground near Klishchiivka. The Defense Forces continue their assault actions south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the occupiers in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka, where Ukrainian forces repelled 5 enemy attacks during the day. On the Maryinka and Shakhtarsk directions, Ukrainian defenders repelled over 20 enemy attacks near Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, 2 attacks south of Zolota Nyva and south of Prechystivka. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost ground southwest of Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, on the Bakhmut direction, near Avdiivka, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They made progress in some sectors.

General conclusion: 

  • The intensity of Russian attacks near Avdiivka has decreased, but they have intensified strikes on the Maryinka front.
  • The Russian command will not be able to adapt quickly to the new missile threat – ATACMS tactical missiles.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been 69 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have advanced approximately 1.5 kilometers west of Yahidne towards Ivanivka and improved their tactical positions northeast of Kupyansk and west of Svatove. They are making progress through fortified areas west of Ploschanka. However, their attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Ivanivka, Kyslivka, Stelmakhivka, and Nadiya have been unsuccessful. They continue to strike Ukrainian crossings over the Oskil River.
  • Russian forces are concentrating near Synkivka, Ivanivka, Stelmakhivka, and Nadiya, seeking to consolidate advantageous positions before the onset of adverse weather conditions.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces advanced northwest of Zaliznyanske, breaking through the defense of the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army and the 1428th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops north of Klishchiivka. Battles are ongoing near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and along the Klishchiivka – Andriivka – Kurdyumivka line.
  • Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Klishchiivka and launched a counterattack near Kurdyumivka. The 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian 2nd Army Corps withdrew from the railway towards Odradivka, and the 1428th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops retreated near Klishchiivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces attempted unsuccessful attacks near Avdiivka, south of Tonenke, near Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. They are advancing near Stepove, trying to make progress near Vodyane, Opytne, Spartak, Severne, and Pervomaiske. The adversary failed to consolidate on the few positions they managed to seize on the approaches to Avdiivka and was forced to retreat.
  • Berdyansk Direction: Russian forces repelled three Ukrainian attacks near Staromayorske and Pryiutne and attempted to improve their tactical positions near Pryiutne and Novomayorske.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces conducted an assault near Pryiutne and repelled five Russian attacks south of Zolota Nyva and Prechystivka.
  • Tokmak Direction: The “Tavriya” OSG forces achieved partial success west of Verbove, repelled Russian attacks southwest of Novodanylivka near Robotyne and west of Verbove.
  • Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults near Robotyne, Kopani, Novoprokopivka, and Verbove. They successfully counterattacked between Robotyne and Kopani after repelling a Ukrainian assault in this area.
  • Kherson Direction: Russian forces thwarted a Ukrainian landing attempt near Kozachi Laheri and Pidstepne on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. They repelled several Ukrainian infantry groups that attempted to advance from marshy terrains north of Oleshky towards Oleshky and Pisky.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, there were 6 enemy ships on combat duty. In the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship. There were 3 enemy ships in the Mediterranean Sea, including one cruise missile carrier with a total salvo of 8 cruise missiles.

Escalation Indicators: 

  • The enemy employed the TOS-2 system on the Avdiivka front to strike at a fortified area held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The enemy will attempt to attack in the direction of Nevske and Torske, pushing the “Khortytsia” OSG forces out of the area of Makiivka–Nevske–Torske–Yampolivka, aiming to reach Lyman and the eastern bank of the Oskil River;
  • The enemy’s military command will deploy units from the 35th and 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, as well as elements of the 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army, the 90th Tank Division of the Central Military District, and the 67th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Combined Arms Army for an advance near Nevske, Terny, and Yampolivka.
  • The 153rd Tank Regiment, formed in the composition of the 47th Tank Division, will be employed as a follow-up echelon in the direction of Pershotravneve–Petropavlivka, jointly with the 26th Tank Regiment of the same division.
  • On the Volnovakha direction, the enemy’s command, with the forces of the 68th Army Corps of the Russian Pacific Fleet, appears to be preparing for an operation at the junction of the “Vostok” and “Yug” Groups of Forces. Their objective is to encircle the “Tavriya” OSG forces near Vuhledar, launching an attack in the Maryinka-Kurakhove direction. However, they are constrained by their available resources.
  • The enemy’s command is preparing to use its bridgehead on the Shaitanka River in the area of Mykilske to attempt again to break through east of Vuhledar towards Vodyane and reach the city from the south through the Southern Donbas Mine. For this purpose, the 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, withdrawn from the area near Svatove for retraining at a range near Donetsk, and a portion of the forces from the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps may be involved.
  • In the near future, the adversary will attempt to regain lost ground on the Bakhmut direction by deploying the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 51st Airborne Regiment. They intend to launch counterattacks from two fronts – from the quarry towards Andriivka and from Zelenopillia along the railway towards Andriivka. Units from the 68th Tank Regiment, which retain a relatively satisfactory level of combat readiness, will also be involved in these counterattacks.
  • The adversary’s command is reorganizing its strike tactical groups of the 1st Army Corps and, upon completion, they will make another offensive attempt in the Opytne area or try to shift their efforts to the stretch along the Vodyane – Tonenke road. Units from the 1st and 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, 111th and 119th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 1st Army Corps will be involved. To further develop the success, the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division, the 10th Tank Battalion, the 13th Separate Assault Battalion “Somali,” and the 80th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion “Sparta” of the 1st Army Corps will also be engaged.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 18.10.23 

Personnel – almost 290,050 people (+620);

Tanks – 4,981 (+2);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,420 (+15);

Artillery systems – 6,944 (+8);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 814 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 547 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,303 (+10);

Aircraft – 319 (+1);

Helicopters – 323 (+6);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,301 (+10);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,534 (+1);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian + general

  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine. 123 towns and villages and 40 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the morning of October 18, Russia launched missile strikes on the residential district in Dnipro. One person has died, and three others have been injured.
  • Russian forces struck a high-rise building in Zaporizhzhia. In total, the Russians launched six missile strikes across the city overnight. Rescue operations have been ongoing throughout the day at the site. By evening, five civilian casualties have been confirmed, and five more individuals have sustained injuries.
  • On the morning of October 18, Russian forces once again targeted Kharkiv with “Iskander” missiles. The city is experiencing power outages.

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