Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 19.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled more than 15 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Ivanivka, Kyslivka, and over 10 enemy attacks near Nadiya. On the Lyman direction, 5 enemy attacks were repelled in the Makiyivka area. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost ground near Klishchiivka. The Defense Forces continue their assault actions south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on enemy personnel and equipment, and consolidating on their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka with the aircraft support. The Ukrainian Defense forces repelled 3 enemy attacks. Enemy offensive actions in the vicinity of Novokalynove and Pervomaiske were unsuccessful. On the Maryinka direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 17 enemy attacks in the area of Maryinka and another 4 in the area of Novomykhailivka. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled enemy attacks in Novomayorske. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Defense Forces hold back the Russian occupation forces near Novodarivka and east of Mala Tokmachka.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, on the Bakhmut direction, near Avdiivka, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They made progress south of Avdiivka. 

General conclusion: 

  • Over the past fortnight, there has been a notable escalation in Russian offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Lyman axis. The 6th and 25th Combined Arms Armies, alongside of the 1st Tank Army forces, have launched attacks on this front with limited success.
  • The adversary’s attempt to neutralize the Avdiivka defensive sector and the attacks in the direction of Maryinka–Kurakhove and Pervomaiske aim to push the “Tavriya” OSG  forces from the immediate vicinity of Donetsk.
  • The scale of the enemy’s penetrations in the directions of Spartak – Avdiivka, Vodyane – Netaylove, and Vodyane – Tonenke does not justify the claims of a critical condition of  the Ukrainian defense.
  • In the Avdiivka area, the enemy’s command is struggling to find an operational solution in the current situation, even considering the almost full deployment of the enemy’s 1st Army Corps and a significant portion of the 8th Combined Arms Army.
  • The further advancement of the forward units of the “Tavriya” OSG in the southern direction is being held back by the enemy’s battalion defense zone on heights 160 and 170 between Novoprokopivka and Verbove.
  • The initiation of patrols by Russian MiG-31 aircraft armed with Kh-47m2 missiles is designed to pose a threat to NATO countries (Romania, Bulgaria), but it does not fundamentally shift the threat landscape for Ukraine.
  • The situation in the Vuhledar area closely mirrors that on the Siversky Bulge. In the vicinity of Bilohorivka, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces are maintaining positions in close proximity to the western outskirts of Lysychansk.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 80 combat engagements on various fronts. 
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced near Synkivka, repelled Ukrainian attacks near Ivanivka and Kyslivka, and launched an attack towards Makiyivka.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG forces counterattacked near Kupyansk, in the vicinity of Synkivka, Ivanivka, Tymkivka, Pershotravneve, Orlianka, Serhiyivka, Nadiya, Kuzmine, Shepylove, and Dibrova. They repelled Russian attacks near Makiyivka. Fighting continues near Torske.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces continued to advance towards the railway line near Klishchiivka. They progressed northeast, crossing the railway near the terricone in the area of Klishchiivka. They repelled Russian attacks near Klishchiivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the adversary, employing forces of the 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (of the 1st Army Corps (AC), attempted to break through towards the ruins of the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant from the area of Spartak. Concentrating along the Donetsk ring road, 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade units also tried to breach from the Mineralne area to Avdiivka. The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, reinforced by the 277th Rifle Battalion of the mobilization reserve (of the 1st AC) north of Avdiivka, attacked in the directions of Stepove and Hight 230. The 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 1454th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops attempted to break through to the sand quarry from the side of Kamyanka. Several paramilitary formations (“Pyatnashka,” “Yurga Battalion,” etc.) tried to break through the H-20 road from the direction of Kruta Balka, attempting to reach the eastern outskirts of Avdiivka. The 9th and 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades attacked in the directions of Vodyane – Netaylove and Pesky-Pervomaiske.
  • In the vicinity of Maryinka, units of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (of the 1st AC) and the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th Army) once again attempted to clear the western part of the village. All these enemy attacks ended without success. The enemy managed to wedge in a few hundred meters on the directions of Spartak – Avdiivka, Vodyane – Netaylove, and Vodyane – Tonenke.
  • The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG pushed the enemy to the south in the strategically crucial defense directions of Severne and Stepove. . 
  • Berdyansk Direction: The enemy’s “Vostok” Group of Forces engaged in active offensive operations west of Mykilske. Units of the 40th Separate Marine Brigade (of the Russian Pacific Fleet) attempted an attack from the Shevchenkove area towards Novoukrayinka, seeking to break through to the T0509 road and outflank Prechystivka from the east. Units of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade attacked in the direction of Zolota Nyva. Both brigades experienced failure.
  • Tokmak Direction: The enemy’s command executed a tactical repositioning of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (MRD), shifting its defensive front towards the left. The 76th Air Assault Brigade was inserted between the 42nd MRD and the 7th Air Assault Division to interdict the incursion of advanced units of the “Tavriya” OSG within the sector of the first line of the enemy’s main defensive line between Novoprokopivka and Verbove. Despite these measures, they failed to impede the southward advancement of the “Tavriya” OSG, which gained ground by 1.5-1.6 kilometers within the enemy’s battle formations.
  • The enemy’s 108th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division was forced to abandon some of its positions northwest of Verbove and withdraw in a southeast direction. The 237th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division is retreating to the south. The battles are extremely fierce and challenging. The adversary consistently reinforces the breach area with tactical reserves, formed by restructuring units that have lost their combat readiness or are on the verge of losing it, organizing them into temporary tactical groups. In the defensive sector of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, units of the 1441st and 1429th Motorized Rifle Regiments of Territorial Troops are in operation, while in the defensive sector of the 76th Air Assault Division, BARS detachments are deployed.
  • The adversary conducted a series of unsuccessful counterattacks in the directions of Kopani – Robotyne by the forces of the 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, and Nesteryanka – Novodanylivka by the forces of the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division.
  • Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions east of Mala Tokmachka and southwest of Robotyne.
  • In the Kherson direction, the “Odesa” OSG forces advanced north of Pishchanivka and Poyma. Two Ukrainian assault groups landed on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, broke through the advanced Russian defense, and liberated Poyma and positions on the northern outskirts of Pishchanivka. Reconnaissance groups operated in the area of Pidstepne. Russian forces only hold positions on the southern outskirts of Pishchanivka.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational maritime zone, there were 4 enemy ships on combat duty; in the Azov Sea – 1 enemy ship; in the Mediterranean Sea – 3 enemy ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier, with a total salvo of 8 cruise missiles.

Change in the enemy disposition: 

  • The 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps is operating near Spirne. The 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade of the Airborne Forces of the Russian Federation and the 85th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps are engaged in combat actions on the Bakhmut direction.
  • The special purpose unit “Osman” of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army are operating on the Orikhiv direction.

Escalation Indicators: 

  • The Russian Aerospace Forces have commenced patrols of the airspace over the Black Sea using MiG-31 aircraft armed with hypersonic missile systems X-47M2 “Kinzhal”.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The 153rd Tank Regiment, formed in the composition of the 47th Tank Division, will be employed as a follow-up echelon in the direction of Pershotravneve–Petropavlivka, jointly with the 26th Tank Regiment of the same division.
  • In the near future, the adversary will attempt to regain lost ground on the Bakhmut direction by deploying the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 51st Airborne Regiment. They intend to launch counterattacks from two fronts – from the quarry towards Andriivka and from Zelenopillia along the railway towards Andriivka. Units from the 68th Tank Regiment, which retain a relatively satisfactory level of combat readiness, will also be involved in these counterattacks.
  • In the near future, the adversary’s command on the Avdiivka direction is expected to redirect its primary efforts from the southern outskirts of Avdiivka towards the northern sector of the city, as evidenced by the deployment of the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, along with the relocation of additional forces and assets.
  • The adversary’s “Vostok” Group of Forces will attempt, if not to capture Vuhledar, at least to break through the west of it, as the bulge poses a potential threat to future operations in the directions of Volnovakha and Mariupol.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 19.10.23 

Personnel – almost 290,680 people (+630);

Tanks – 4,992 (+11);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,437 (+17);

Artillery systems – 6,983 (+39);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 818 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 548 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,337 (+34);

Aircraft – 320 (+1);

Helicopters – 324 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,318 (+17);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,534 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian +general

  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine. 140 towns and villages and 127 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Over the night, the Russian occupiers struck Ukraine with five Iskander-M ballistic missiles, one cruise missile (type to be determined), nine strike UAVs of the “Shahed” type, one guided aviation missile, and one anti-aircraft missile. Ukrainian infrastructure was  attacked in Donetsk (educational institution building was damaged), Mykolaiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Ukrainian air defense forces destroyed one guided aviation missile X-59 and three UAVs.
  • On October 19, the Russian occupiers dropped 10 aerial bombs on Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, resulting in two women being injured. Additionally, two more cluster aerial bombs were launched by the Russians on the village of Vesele. The extent of the damage is currently being assessed.

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