Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 22.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled over 15 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Ivanivka, and Nadiya. On the Lyman Direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces thwarted more than 10 enemy attacks in the Bilohorivka, Serebryansk Forest, and Spirne areas. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled all enemy attacks in the areas of Vasyukivka and Andriivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in their attempts to encircle Avdiivka. However, the Ukrainian Defense Forces hold their positions steadfastly, causing significant losses to the enemy. The enemy’s offensive actions in the Keramik, Avdiivka, Stepove, Tonenke, and Pervomaiske were unsuccessful, with over 15 enemy attacks repelled. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted fruitless assault operations in the areas of Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, and Pobeda, where Ukrainian defenders repelled more than 20 enemy attacks. On the Shakhtarsk and Zaporizhzhia directions, Ukrainian forces repelled all enemy attacks near Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva, Staromayorske, and north of Pryiutne. Simultaneously, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operations on the Melitopol direction, inflicting losses on the occupying forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, around Avdiivka, west of Donetsk, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts,  and in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They made slight progress in some sectors. 

General conclusion: 

  • The Russian military command persists in employing an ineffective and resource-intensive tactic in their offensive near Avdiivka, leading to notable losses in personnel and equipment. This continued reliance on this tactic over the past week suggests that the Russian military command is focusing the primary thrust of the operation in Donbas specifically on the Avdiivka sector.
  • The adversary’s command considers the resumption of active offensive actions by the “Khortytsia” OSG north of Bakhmut as the most likely scenario. They are striving to create maximum complications for the Ukrainian command in executing such actions on the segment nearest to the city.
  • The adversary’s command considers the Klishchiivka–Zaitseve direction as the most threatening to them. In this sector, the enemy’s 83rd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, reinforced by units from the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, attempts to launch a counterattack north of the ponds with the aim of displacing Ukrainian forward units from the railway. It is anticipated that units from the 1307th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops will be deployed into action along this stretch.
  • Despite the limited gains and substantial losses in both personnel and equipment in their previous engagements, the enemy’s command on the Donetsk front is determined to press on with their offensive. In the past 2-3 days, they have amassed the 111th Motorized Rifle Regiment, along with the 1487th and 1004th Motorized Rifle Regiments and the 504th Tank Regiment of the Territorial Troops south of Avdiivka. Additionally, in readiness to intensify their efforts, the command of the enemy’s 1st Army Corps maintains the 117th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 87th Rifle Regiment (of the mobilization reserve). These units will be deployed in case of tactical success on any of the fronts.
  • Several small footholds established by the “Odesa” OSG forces on the left bank in Kherson Oblast do not currently present a major challenge to the stability of the adversary’s defense system in the region.
  • The command of the “Odesa” OSG adequately supplied and reinforced the groups that carried out the Dnipro crossing, despite the increased activity of Russian aviation on the Kherson operational direction.
  • The command of the Russian Aerospace Forces has never before employed such combinations of weaponry in air strikes. This suggests a potential shift in focus towards increased aerial firepower and heightened drone strikes in anticipation of the approaching winter.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 80 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy command temporarily halted attacks towards Ivanivka and attempts to respond to the advancement of the forward units of the “Khortytsia” OSG in the direction of Orlyanske in the section north of it. Russian forces are reinforcing their forward units with reserves from the composition of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Army: units of the 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division are deploying southwest of Mykolaivka, and to the north of Yahidne, the right-flank units of the enemy’s 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment are being reinforced.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy’s forward units, specifically from the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division, have become more active in the direction of Yahidne – Bohdanivka and towards Khromove. This is aimed at ensuring greater resilience of the enemy positions in the Berkhivka and Yahidne areas along the general direction of Paraskoviivka – Soledar.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG forces are increasing their presence east of the Bakhmut-Horlivka railway. As a result, to the northeast of Klishchiivka, enemy units from the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 1428th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops were compelled to abandon several of their forward positions and retreat towards Opytne. North of Zelenopillia, the advanced units of the “Khortytsia” OSG drove the enemy out of the forested areas on both sides of the railway and advanced towards the northern outskirts of the village beyond the railway.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy’s attempts to realize their plan of encircling the Avdiivka defense sector of the “Tavriya” OSG persist. Enemy units from the 9th and 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 1st Army Corps once again launched attacks in the directions of Vodyane – Tonenke, Vodyane – Netaylove, and Pesky – Pervomaiske, but were unable to make progress. The adversary’s 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is reinforced by the 57th Motorized Rifle Regiment, which is deployed in the Mineralne – Yakovlivka – Spartak – Kashtanove area.
  • Berdiansk direction: The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG launched an attack in the direction of Pryiutne and counterattacked near the heights between Pryiutne and Staromayorske.
  • Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful assault near Staromayorske and Novodonetske. They engaged near Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva, Staromayorske, Rivnopol, Pryiutne, and Poltavka. They are making slow progress to the north of Pryiutne.
  • Tokmak direction: The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG repelled Russian troops from the western outskirts of Robotyne, advanced to the west of Novofedorivka, and are positioned 6 kilometers from it. The enemy’s 247th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 76th Airborne Assault Division retreated several hundred meters towards Novofedorivka.
  • Russian forces repelled three Ukrainian attacks near Verbove, counterattacked to the west of the village, and advanced 200 meters into the adjacent wooded area. They also unsuccessfully attacked near Robotyne. The 108th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 7th Airborne Assault Division launched an attack near Novopokrovka towards Mala Tokmachka.
  • Combat engagements continue along the Robotyne – Kopani line.
  • Kherson direction: The adversary’s “Dniepr” Operational Group attempts to respond to the heightened activity of the advanced units of the “Odesa” OSG in the Dnipro River delta. The “Odesa” OSG has expanded its foothold on the left bank in the railway bridge area, taking control of the entire portion of the left bank bounded by the Upper Konka estuary. The enemy conducts continuous concentrated artillery shelling of the foothold and endeavors to execute aerial strikes but has been unable to neutralize it.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational zone, one enemy ship-carrier of cruise missiles was on duty; in the Sea of Azov, one enemy ship was present; in the Mediterranean Sea, three enemy ships were detected, one of which is a cruise missile carrier with a combined salvo of eight cruise missiles.

Changes in enemy disposition: 

  • To the south of Pischanka, units of the 177th Separate Marine Regiment, relocated from the Polohy direction after losing combat readiness, are being concentrated.
  • The adversary’s 70th Motorized Rifle Division continues to reinforce the combat formations of the “Dniepr” OG on the main defense line: the 24th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the division has taken up a defensive position in the area of Radensk village, while the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment is deploying in the vicinity of Krynka village.
  • The 104th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 76th Airborne Assault Division has lost combat readiness and is struggling to halt the advance of the “Tavriya” OSG forces towards Novoprokopivka.
  • The 116th Operational Brigade of the Russian National Guard has received T-80BV tanks, which were previously in service with the “Wagner” PMC.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • After stabilizing the situation in the Orlyanske area, the enemy will continue offensive actions towards Yahidne–Ivanivka and towards Kyslivka.
  • In the short-term perspective, the enemy’s command on the Avdiivka direction will shift its main efforts from the area south of Avdiivka to the area north of the city (indicated by the presence of the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade there) and deploy some additional forces and resources to that location.
  • The adversary’s “Vostok” Group of Forces will endeavor, if not to capture Vuhledar outright, at the very least to breach its western perimeter. This is due to the fact that the “Tavriya” OSG bridgehead presents a potential threat to the enemy’s forthcoming operations in the directions of Volnovakha and Mariupol.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 21.10.23 

Personnel – almost 293,830 people (+980);

Tanks – 5,081 (+18);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,631 (+19);

Artillery systems – 7,032 (+15);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 825 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 549 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,404 (+13);

Aircraft – 320 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,339 (+9);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,535 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).


  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. One hundred seven towns and villages and 25 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified. As a result of the aerial missile strikes by Russian occupiers on Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast last night, three civilians lost their lives.
  • During the night, the Russian occupiers launched three “Shahed” drones, a guided Kh-59 aviation missile and eight S-300 missiles. Ukrainian air defense forces successfully intercepted and destroyed the “Shahed” drones and the Kh-59 missile. Additionally, over the past day, three “Lancet” type strike UAVs were neutralized in southern Ukraine.
  • On the late evening of Saturday, October 21, the Russian forces targeted the ‘Nova Poshta’ Ukrainian postal service terminal in Kharkiv Oblast with two S-300 missiles. At least six people were killed and another 17 were injured, all of them postal employees. They were sorting parcels with medicines and humanitarian aid for people affected by the war. At this moment, a Russian missile hit the terminal, as reported by “Nova Poshta” management. The company declared a day of mourning. “Russia destroyed a civilian building and must be condemned for war crimes,” the statement reads. Additionally, it has been confirmed that the shelling caused damage to seven trucks and two semi-trailers stationed at the terminal.
  • On October 22, Russian forces launched 12 guided aerial bombs at the populated areas on the right bank of Kherson Oblast. Under fire were the Kherson district, three villages of the Beryslav district and Kherson city. The city experienced impacts in residential areas, buildings of transportation and food enterprises. Russian forces shelled four populated areas in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in the deaths of two people, and three others sustained injuries. Around 10 a.m. on October 22, the Russian occupiers struck Kurylivka village in Kharkiv Oblast with a FAB-250. A 39-year-old woman was injured. Residential buildings, utility structures, and a private enterprise were damaged.
  • In the past day, 49 people were evacuated from the liberated territories of Kherson Oblast, including 11 children. In addition, the Regional Military Administration reported that in the liberated Kherson territories, sappers surveyed 118,772.7 hectares of land, of which 99,586.6 hectares are agricultural lands. On these territories, 116 thousand explosive objects were discovered and neutralized.
  • With support from the Médecins Sans Frontières and volunteers from the Ukrainian Red Cross Society, a medical evacuation of patients with mental disorders took place from Kherson Oblast. They will be transported for further treatment to medical facilities in safer regions.

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