Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 23.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled over 15 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka and Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces thwarted about 10 enemy attacks in the areas of Nadia and Serebryansk Forestry. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled all enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Khromove, Ivanivske, Andriivka, and Druzhba. The Defense Forces continue offensive actions south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in their attempts to encircle Avdiivka. However, the Ukrainian Defense Forces hold their positions steadfastly, causing significant losses to the enemy. The enemy’s offensive actions in the Keramik, Stepove, Avdiivka, Tonenke, Opytne, and Nevelske areas were unsuccessful, with the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelling over 20 enemy attacks. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault actions in the areas of Maryinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka, where Ukrainian defenders repelled 24 enemy attacks. On the Shakhtarsk and Zaporizhzhia directions, Ukrainian forces repelled all enemy attacks in the areas of Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva, Verbove, and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas. In Nova Kakhovka, the adversary has intensified security measures; the occupational police are searching for up to 60 Russian deserters throughout the city.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They made slight progress in some sectors. 

General conclusion: 

  • The initiation of combat operations by the vanguard units of the Russian 1st Tank Army towards Ivanivka and Kyslivka on the Kupyansk axis suggests that the enemy command does not perceive the progress of the “Khortytsia” OSG forces towards Orlyanske as a significant threat.
  • The enemy’s attacks in the Andriivka area are aimed at disrupting the advancement of the “Khortytsia” OSG forces towards Zelenopillia and Kurdyumivka from the north, along the railway.
  • Russian forces are facing difficulties in overcoming Ukrainian minefields near Avdiivka and are unable to completely destroy the Ukrainian material and technical base. This allows the Ukrainian command to swiftly redeploy personnel to critical areas. Ukrainian defensive fortifications pose a serious challenge to the Russian advance around Avdiivka.
  • Russian forces continue to redeploy personnel to the Avdiivka direction to support their offensive efforts despite significant losses.
  • The vicinity of Poltavka on the Berdyansk direction has emerged as a fresh theater of intense combat operations instigated by the adversary.
  • South of Bakhmut, the enemy is regrouping some of its forces with the aim of organizing a stable defense in the areas of Opytne and along the Odradivka-Mykolaivka Druha line.
  • Russian forces are exerting efforts to impede the Dnipro River crossing by the assault groups of the “Odesa” OSG in the regions of Prydniprovske, Tyahynka, and Krynky. Russian aviation carried out airstrikes near Olhivka, Lvove, Tyahynka, Tokarivka, Ponyativka, and Barvinky, deploying a total of 36 glide bombs over the course of the day.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 90 combat engagements on various fronts. 
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced to the southwest of Pershotravneve, the southwest of Yahidne, and the east of Terny, achieving some success in the Serebryansk Forest area. The 25th and 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades unsuccessfully attacked near Synkivka, Nadia, Bilohorivka, and Spirne. In the Torske area, the enemy is transitioning to a defensive stance. The 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 26th Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army engaged in combat for Ivanivka and Kyslivka.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG forces attacked near Synkivka, Makiyivka, Ivanivka, Nadia, Torske, Serebryansk Forest, and Dibrova.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces are intensifying their actions along the Bakhmut-Horlivka railway line. They crossed it north of Zelenopillia, attacked near Bohdanivka and Klishchiivka, and repelled Russian attacks near Vasyukivka, Bohdanivka, Khromove, Andriivka, and Druzhba.
  • The enemy attacked with the forces of the 1428th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops east of Klishchiivka. The 83rd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade and the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps are trying to hinder the advance of the forward units of the “Khortytsia” OSG to the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut from Klishchiivka and to the east of it towards Zaitseve. To achieve this, the enemy is conducting intensive artillery fire in the northeastern part of the village and on the heights to the northwest of it.
  • The 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 1428th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops of the 2nd Army Corps retreated to the western outskirts of Opytne after an unsuccessful counterattack.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces made slight progress to the southeast of Pervomaiske, near Stepove, and attacked near Novokalynove. They unsuccessfully stormed Ukrainian positions near Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. The 1st and 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades attempted to expand the wedge area near the overpass, specifically south of the ruins of the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant and between Vodyane and Severne. The advancement on the second direction was up to 200 meters. The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade couldn’t capture Height 230, known as “Terikon.” Other units tried to advance in the direction of Krasnohorivka-Stepove but couldn’t break through beyond the outskirts of Krasnohorivka.
  • The “Tavria” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Keramik, Stepove, Avdiivka, Tonenke, Opytne, Nevelske, and Pervomaiske. They thwarted over 20 Russian attacks near Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
  • Berdyansk Direction: The forces of the “Tavria” OSG made slight progress near Novodonetske, continued attempts to occupy heights between Pryiutne and Staromayorske, and repelled Russian attacks near Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva, Staromayorske, and Pryiutne.
  • The enemy counterattacked near Poltavka.
  • Tokmak Direction: The forces of the “Tavria” OSG continued offensive actions on the Melitopol direction, repelling Russian assaults near Robotyne and Verbove.
  • Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults near Robotyne, Novoprokopivka, and Verbove.
  • Kherson Direction: Units of the “Odesa” OSG are active in Krynky, advancing up to 5 km between Oleshky and Kozachi Laheri, and have expanded their foothold towards the railway bridge over the Upper Konka River. Battles continue near Pishchanivka.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, there were 2 enemy ships on combat duty, including 2 missile carriers with a total salvo of 16 missiles. In the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship; in the Mediterranean Sea, there were 3 enemy ships, including 1 missile carrier with a total salvo of 8 missiles.

Changes in enemy disposition: 

  • The 57th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps is concentrated in the Spartak – Yakivka – Mineralne – Kashtanove area.
  • The 1307th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops is concentrated near Kurdyumivka.
  • The 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 87th Rifle Regiment were withdrawn due to significant losses behind the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. In the same area, the 111th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 1004th and the 1487th Motorized Rifle Regiments and the 504th Tank Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops are concentrated.
  • Units of the 83rd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade are operating on the Myrne – Nesteryanka line (this requires verification, as the brigade was active on the Bakhmut direction, suffered losses, and was withdrawn for recovery in the Donetsk area).
  • The 277th Separate Special Battalion and the 109th Rifle Regiment of the mobilization reserve are effectively defeated on the Bakhmut direction.
  • In the area of Oleshky, the enemy is forming a reserve tactical group to respond promptly to raids by the forward units of the “Odesa” OSG across the Dnipro River in the Oleshky – Nova Kakhovka section. Over the past three days, the enemy has concentrated the 95th Motorized Rifle Regiment, the battalion of the 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade of the 22nd Army Corps of the 18th Combined Arms Army, and a detachment of the PMC “Medvedi” (self-styled as the “81st Medvedi Special Purpose Brigade,” effectively a branch of the “Redut” PMC).
  • The 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th Combined Arms Army continues the operational deployment of its units and subunits in the defense zone of the 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. The 24th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division is observed in the Radenske – Chelburda area and is likely to transition to a defense stance in the Kozachi Lagery area. The 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division is positioned in the vicinity of Krynka.

Escalation indicators:

  • The Russian Ministry of Defense is expanding facilities in Belarus for storing nuclear weapons. Construction of a standard storage facility for Iskander cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads is ongoing near Osypovychy.
  • A shipment of artillery ammunition produced by North Korea has been observed to arrive on the front lines in the area of Avdiivka.
  • Two carriers of the Kalibr cruise missile have been deployed to the operational areas in the Black Sea after a prolonged hiatus.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Despite the limited results and significant personnel and equipment losses in their previous actions, the enemy’s command on the Donetsk direction intends to continue offensive operations. To bolster their efforts, the command of the enemy 1st Army Corps will introduce their available reserves into the operation in the event of tactical success on any of the fronts.
  • In the short-term perspective, the enemy’s command on the Avdiivka direction will shift its main efforts from the area south of Avdiivka to the area north of the city (indicated by the presence of the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade there) and deploy some additional forces and resources to that location.
  • The adversary’s “Vostok” Group of Forces will endeavor, if not to capture Vuhledar outright, at the very least to breach its western perimeter. This is due to the fact that the “Tavriya” OSG bridgehead presents a potential threat to the enemy’s forthcoming operations in the directions of Volnovakha and Mariupol.
  • The enemy’s command of the “Dnipro” Operational Group is gradually increasing its efforts in the occupied territory of Kherson Oblast. The relocation of troops from the Tokmak direction indicates high attention to this direction.
  • The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army is expected to be redeployed from the area between Pryiutne and Zavitne Bazhannia to the Kherson direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 23.10.23 

Personnel – almost 294,700 people (+870);

Tanks – 5,093 (+12);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,653 (+22);

Artillery systems – 7,057 (+25);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 825 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 551 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,419 (+15);

Aircraft – 320 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,345 (+6);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,536 (+1);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).


  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 113 towns and villages and 60 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified. 
  • During the night, the Russian forces launched an attack on Ukraine using 13 “Shakhed” drones, one unidentified type of drone, and an X-59 missile. The Ukrainian air defense forces successfully intercepted all enemy targets. In particular, 9 drones were neutralized over Odesa Oblast. Fragments damaged the roof of a warehouse near the port infrastructure. A fire broke out on the scene but was promptly extinguished. The air defense system was also active in the Kyiv and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts. Preliminary reports indicate no casualties or significant damage.
  • Yesterday, the Russian occupiers shelled one of the DTEK thermal power plants, causing significant damage to the facility’s equipment, as the company’s press service reported. There were no casualties. The aftermath is being addressed.
  • In the liberated areas of Kherson Oblast, 23 towns and villages have been identified for the mandatory evacuation of families with children if necessary. Russian forces continue to shell these villages mercilessly, and there are still children left behind, whose safety needs to be ensured.
  • Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, 261 Ukrainians have lost their lives due to mines and explosive hazards, while another 559 have been injured.
  • According to the Kyiv Military Administration, in the past 12 months, the Russian aggressor has launched over 300 cruise missiles of various types, along with 14 ballistic missiles and nearly 400 combat UAVs of the Shahed type towards Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital.

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