Russia’s war on Ukraine. 24.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled approximately five enemy attacks in the vicinity of Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian troops maintain a steadfast defense, successfully repelling all enemy attacks near Nadiya. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian forces thwarted all enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Khromove, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue offensive operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka, actively employing aviation. However, Ukrainian forces steadfastly hold the defense and inflict significant losses on the enemy. The enemy’s offensive actions in the areas of Keramik, Stepove, Avdiivka, and Tonenke were unsuccessful, with the Defense Forces repelling over ten enemy attacks. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted futile assault operations in the areas of Maryinka and Pobieda, with Ukrainian forces repelling around fifteen Russian attacks. On the Shakhtarsk and Zaporizhzhia directions, Ukrainian defenders repelled all enemy attacks near Novomykhailivka and southeast of Mala Tokmachka. Simultaneously, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, achieving partial success south of Robotyne, inflicting losses on occupation forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas. 

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They made progress in some sectors. 

General conclusion: 

• Russian forces, operating on the Kupyansk direction, have changed their tactics engaging in assaults composed of up to 30 personnel without the support of combat vehicles. On the Lyman direction, they are launching attacks employing groups ranging from 30 to 50 individuals, employing a combined combat formation.
• North Korea has dispatched approximately 1,000 containers of ammunition to Russia, each containing between 300 to 500 artillery rounds, estimated at 300,000 to 500,000 pieces. This quantity is sufficient to sustain one month of moderately intense combat operations. Presently, the daily rate of ammunition consumption stands at 10,000 to 15,000 shells, representing a notable reduction compared to the artillery shelling rates in the summer of 2022 (45,000 to 80,000 shells per day).

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been 55 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces made slight progress to the southeast of Ivanivka, advancing slowly towards Synkivka and Petropavlivka, as well as in the Serebryansk Forest. They reached a position 600 meters from Makiyivka and are holding a line 2 kilometers from Svatove. They repelled attacks by the “Khortytsia” OSG forces near Nadia, Novoyehorivka, Hryhorivka, Dibrova, Ivanivka, and in the direction of Sviato-Pokrovske.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Synkivka, launched an attack near Kupyansk, and counterattacked near Petropavlivka.
• Combat engagements continue on the Siversky direction.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces advanced northeast of Klishchiivka across the railway, and successfully counterattacked near Khromove and in the direction of Bohdanivka. 
• Russian forces struck the areas where “Khortytsia” OSG units are concentrated near Berkhivsky Reservoir, Klishchiivka, and on the Soledar direction. They unsuccessfully attacked near Bohdanivka, Khromove, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Druzhba.
• According to Russian estimates, their losses near Klishchiivka over the last month alone amount to approximately 1,500 personnel.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced to the southwest of Krasnohorivka, near Pervomaiske, Stepove and Nevelske. They advanced almost 2 kilometers in the vicinity of Avdiivka, reaching the railway, and broke through to the Height 230, known as “Terikon”. They displaced units of the “Tavriya” OSG in the areas of Severne and Spartak. They attacked and improved their tactical position near Novokalynove, but their attacks near Keramik, Tonenke, Novomykhailivka, Pobeda, and Maryinka were unsuccessful. Positional battles continue near Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, and Vuhledar.
• Units of the enemy’s 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (SMRBr), 110th SMRBr of the 1st Army Corps, and 55th SMRBr of the 41st Combined Arms Army advanced by 200 meters in the area of Opytne and Vodyane. Units of the 114th SMRBr of the 1st Army Corps consolidated west of Krasnohorivka.
• Russian forces are forming assault groups from units of the 106th Airborne Division of the Russian Airborne Forces and the 1st Army Corps.
• The “Tavriya” OSG forces launched counterattacks near Avdiivka, Pisky, Vodyane, Opytne, and Pervomaiske.
• Advancing enemy columns, as they near the point of attack, already suffer losses ranging from 20-30% of their personnel due to artillery fire from the “Tavriya” OSG.
• Berdyansk direction: Russian forces advanced up to 1 kilometer north of Pryiutne. They attempted to improve their positions near Novodonetske and Urozhaine. The 40th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet improved its tactical position near Novomayorske. The enemy conducted several unsuccessful attacks southeast of Velyka Novosilka, near Zolota Nyva, and Prechystivka.
• Tokmak direction: “Tavriya” OSG forces compelled Russian troops to retreat from certain positions near Novodonetske.
• Russian forces launched unsuccessful attacks near Robotyne, Verbove, and southeast of Mala Tokmachka. The actions of the 7th Air Assault Division of the Russian Airborne Forces near Verbove are supported by heavy flamethrower systems TOC-1A.
• Kherson direction: Russian forces launched a counterattack and pushed back units of the “Odesa” OSG from their positions in Krynky. The enemy’s morale within the ranks of the 18th Combined Arms Army is low and their level of training is poor.
• The “Odesa” OSG forces have advanced to positions north of Pidstepne and continue to operate between Krynky and Pidstepne. They intend to break through the Pidstepne – Pischanka line in the direction of Oleshky.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, there were 4 enemy ships on combat duty, including 2 cruise missile carriers with a total salvo of 16 cruise missiles. In the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship. There were 3 enemy ships in the Mediterranean Sea, including 1 cruise missile carrier with a total salvo of 8 cruise missiles.
• Dredging operations in the seaport of Mariupol have been completed, and the first sea-class vessel (a bulk carrier with a tonnage of 5,000 tons) has arrived at the ship repair plant’s berth. The enemy is deploying maritime logistics to support their grouping in the south of Ukraine.

Changes in enemy disposition: 

• On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy has introduced the 2nd Army, relocated here from the Lyman direction, in full composition (15th, 21st, 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades). The arrival of the 41st Army is expected.
• Near Andriivka, units of the 346th Separate SOF Brigade, the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps, and the Chechen detachment “Akhmat” are operating.
• On the Kurdyumivka direction, units of the Russian 57th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps and another Chechen detachment “Akhmat” are active. To the east of Khromove, the 98th Airborne Division of the Russian Airborne Forces is engaged in combat.
• In the area of Avdiivka, the Private Military Company “Redut”, subordinated to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, is deployed

Escalation indicators:

• Relocation of the enemy 2nd and 41st Armies to the Avdiivka direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Despite the limited results and significant personnel and equipment losses in their previous actions, the enemy’s command on the Donetsk direction intends to continue offensive operations. To bolster their efforts, the command of the enemy 1st Army Corps will introduce their available reserves into the operation in the event of tactical success on any of the fronts.
• The enemy’s command of the “Dniepr” Operational Group is gradually increasing its efforts in the occupied territory of Kherson Oblast. The relocation of troops from the Tokmak direction indicates high attention to this direction.
• The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army is expected to be redeployed from the area between Pryiutne and Zavitne Bazhannia to the Kherson direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 24.10.23 

Personnel – almost 295,510 people (+810);

Tanks – 5,105 (+12);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,669 (+16);

Artillery systems – 7,081 (+24);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 828 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 552 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,447 (+28);

Aircraft – 320 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,363 (+18);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,537 (+1);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian+general

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 11 regions of Ukraine. 114 towns and villages and 69 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified. 
• During the night, the Ukrainian air defense forces successfully neutralized all 6 “Shakhed” combat UAVs that Russia used to attack Ukraine. They were intercepted over the territories of Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, and Mykolaiv Oblasts.
• On the morning of October 24, the Ukrainian air defense forces successfully intercepted an enemy missile over the Kamianske district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. In the Synelnykivskyi district, an infrastructure facility and several private houses were damaged due to the attack.
• Around noon on October 24, the enemy launched an attack on Zaporizhzhia with two missiles, preliminarily assessed as ballistic. According to the head of the regional military administration, Mr. Malashko, one of the missiles struck the premises of an enterprise, causing damage to the buildings on the premises. The exact location of impact for the second missile is currently being confirmed.
• During the day, the enemy attacked Nikopol twice, first with a kamikaze drone and then with heavy artillery. A 36-year-old man sustained shrapnel injuries.
• On the evening of October 24, the enemy shelled the village of Podoly of Kharkiv Oblast. Two civilian men, aged 57 and 50, lost their lives.

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