Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 25.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian troops repelled about 10 enemy attacks near Synkivka and Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian forces are holding the defense steadfastly, successfully repelling all enemy attacks near Nadiya and Makiyivka. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops thwarted approximately 10 enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on the achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka, actively employing aviation. However, Ukrainian forces are holding the defense resolutely, causing significant losses to the enemy. The enemy’s offensive actions in the areas of Stepove, Avdiivka, Severne, and Nevelske were futile, with the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelling over 10 enemy attacks. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the areas of Maryinka and Pobieda. Ukrainian troops repelled over 20 enemy attacks in this area.

On the Shakhtarsk and Zaporizhzhia directions, Ukrainian forces repelled all enemy attacks in the areas of Novomykhailivka, Prechystivka, Staromayorske, south of Zolota Nyva, and southeast of Mala Tokmachka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, achieving partial success west of Verbove, inflicting losses on the occupying forces in personnel and equipment and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas. 

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They made progress in some sectors. 

General conclusion: 

  • The situation in the Southern operational zone exhibits lower levels of tension and dynamism compared to the Eastern operational zone, where active combat operations are underway along the Avdiivka, Kupyansk, and Bakhmut axes.
  • The achievements of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Berdyansk, and Tokmak directions will determine the results of the summer-autumn campaign and will have a strategic impact on the military campaign of 2024.
  • The shift in the direction of operations of the “Tavriya” OSG forces near Kopani towards the west puts the enemy’s 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment, defending in Nesteryanka, in a semi-encirclement.
  • The consolidation of the bridgeheads of the “Odesa” OSG forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River into a unified entity will considerably complicate the situation for the adversary in the sectors towards Pishchanivka and Krynka.
  • The command of the adversary’s “Dnepr” operational group is proceeding cautiously with the deployment of significant forces along the left bank of the Dnipro. Tactical reserves are being employed to counter the “Odesa” OSG. The military units of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the Russian 18th Army have not been committed to combat thus far, despite their concentration in the vicinities of Radensk, Korsunka, and Nova Mayachka.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been 80 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled unsuccessful Russian attacks near Synkivka, Ivanivka, Makiyivka, and Nadiya. They counterattacked near Raigorodka, displacing the enemy from some positions, which have now become disputed “gray zones.” Battles are ongoing near Dibrova.
  • Russian forces continued their offensive towards Kupyansk. Combat engagements are taking place near Stepova Novoselivka. They repelled attacks by the “Khortytsia” OSG near Synkivka, Ivanivka, and Serhiyivka, as well as in the areas of Yampolivka and Dibrova. Enemy units advanced near Kreminna and captured a stronghold of the Defense Forces.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces have advanced to the east of Andriivka, beyond the railway line, and are located near Oradivka. They hold positions on all dominant heights near Bakhmut. They repelled Russian attacks near Bohdanivka, Khromove, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
  • Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack near Kurdyumivka and struck Ukrainian forces near Bohdanivka and Klishchiivka. They maintain positions within 1 km of Vasyukivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, enemy units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps advanced to the northeast of Avdiivka. Other enemy units reached the railway line to the west of Krasnohorivka. They unsuccessfully attacked near Avdiivka, Stepove, Keramik, Severne, Tonenke, Vodyane, and Opytne.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces launched counterattacks near Pisky, Opytne, and Pervomaiske. They repelled Russian attacks near Nevelske, Maryinka, Pobeda, and Novomykhailivka.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, the enemy’s 349th Motorized Rifle Regiment and 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade advanced 200 meters from Pryiutne towards Novodarivka, but they failed to reach the areas south of Novodarivka and Rivnopillia. The threat from the “Tavriya” OSG forces to the Russian positions in Pryiutne persists. The enemy unsuccessfully attacked near Staromayorske, Prechystivka, and south of Zolota Nyva, attempting to advance in the areas of Novodonetske and Novomayorske. The enemy’s attacks form the Pryiutne – Zavitne Bazhannia line in the northern direction have ceased. The attacks by the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army and the 40th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet in the direction of Shevchenkove – Novoukrayinka did not yield tactical results. The 113th Rifle Regiment of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps holds the stretch between Mykilske and Volodymyrivka and represents a weak link in the enemy’s defense in this area.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces confidently maintain their forward positions along the Shaitanka and Kashlagach rivers.
  • On the Tokmak direction, the “Tavriya” OSG forces made slight progress to the west and south of Robotyne. They launched an attack near Kopani and Novoprokopivka; battles continue near Verbove. The enemy no longer controls the northwest outskirts of Novopokrovka, failed to fully reclaim the northern part of Novoprokopivka, and is now compelled to hold positions in its central part. Additionally, in the area where the advanced units of the “Tavriya” OSG are wedged into the first position of the enemy’s main defense line between Novoprokopivka and Verbove, Ukrainian forces are close to seizing one of the key heights, Height 170.
  • The forward units of the “Tavriya” OSG have closely approached Nesteryanka from the north and northwest. In this area, the enemy’s 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment units are attempting to prevent their further advancement to bypass Nesteryanka from the west and towards the road to Myrne.
  • Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks southeast of Mala Tokmachka. Units from the 56th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 7th Airborne Assault Division were advancing to the southwest of Verbove, where the 108th and 247th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 7th Airborne Assault Division are trying to hold positions to hinder the advance of Ukrainian forces towards the village from the west. The enemy counterattacked quite actively and without success with the forces of the 210th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 1152nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops in the area of Height 170.
  • On the Kherson direction, the “Odesa” OSG units continue their attacks on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. They maintain some positions in Krynky, near Antonivskyi Highway and the railway bridge, as well as in the area of the railway bridge over the Upper Konka strait. Assault groups landed near Pidstepne and captured a section of the road connecting Poyma, Kozachi Lagery, and Krynky. The “Odesa” OSG has relocated reserves to the islands in the delta of the Dnipro River and is attempting to break through to Poyma and Pishchanivka. Two tactical footholds have already been established on the Oleshky – Nova Kakhovka stretch.
  • A battalion form the composition of the enemy’s  127 Separate Ranger Brigade (the 22nd Army Corps of the 18th Army) has been conducting search and strike operations to clear the Dnipro floodplain east of Vchorashniy Island. However, they have not yet achieved their intended objective.
  • The enemy command is deploying the “Storm-Z” detachment along the Korsunka – Novi Laheri line for an attack in the direction of Korsunka – Krynky along the coastal road. North of the ponds of the Kakhovka fish farm, units of the enemy’s 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade are being deployed with the aim of launching an attack in the northern direction towards Krynka. The 385th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops covers the direction towards Kozachi Lagery.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, there were 2 enemy ships on combat duty; in the Azov Sea – 1 enemy ship; in the Mediterranean Sea – 3 enemy ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier with a total salvo of 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in enemy disposition: 

  • Along the E40 highway line, from Slovyansk to Bakhmut, the “Rys” special forces detachment and units from the 1st Airborne Brigade “Volky” (affiliation yet to be determined) are holding their positions. The 106th Airborne Division of the Russian Airborne Forces is engaged in combat operations near Vasyukivka. South of Bakhmut, the 13th BARS detachment is in a defensive posture.
  • On the Maryinka direction, the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps is engaged in combat operations.
  • Units of the 14th Separate SOF Brigade of the enemy are operating on the Vuhledar direction.
  • The 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment (form the composition of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army) is defending Near Verbove.
  • The enemy has completed repositioning their forces towards the direction of Vasylivka. In the first echelon, the 429th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division, the 125th and 95th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Territorial Troops are on defensive and the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment maintains the defensive line in the sector between Nesteryanka and Myrne. In the second echelon, two BTGr (Battalion Tactical Groups) of the 4th Military Base, BARS detachments “Krym”, “Sudoplatov Battalion,” “Ossetia,” “Volunteer Battalion Alania,” and “Storm-Z” detachment, are transitioning to the defense stance. They are currently moving towards Zherebyanky.

Escalation indicators:

  •  During the attack on Kyiv Oblast, Russian forces, for the first time in Ukraine, employed new long-range strike UAVs “Italmas.”

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The enemy’s 35th Army has received orders to hold the Novokarlivka-Myrne-Dorozhnyanka-Marfopil line on the Polohy direction at all costs. The commander of the 35th Army will concentrate the main efforts on the directions Polohy – Novokarlivka (38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) and Polohy – Dorozhnyanka (64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade). The 69th Separate Cover Brigade will attempt to hold Myrne and Zahirne for as long as possible. In case of failure, it will withdraw to the prepared defense line to the south, allocating a battalion for operations in neighboring sectors. The evolving situation in the Novopokrovka, Luhivske and Dorozhnyanka areas makes this course of action by the enemy the most likely.Bottom of Form
  • The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army is expected to be redeployed from the area between Pryiutne and Zavitne Bazhannia to the Kherson direction.
  • The enemy’s command of the “Dnipro” Operational Group is gradually increasing its efforts in the occupied territory of Kherson Oblast. The relocation of troops from the Tokmak direction indicates high attention to this direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 25.10.23 

Personnel – almost 296,310 people (+800);

Tanks – 5,112 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,697 (+28);

Artillery systems – 7,125 (+44);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 833 (+5);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 554 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,474 (+27);

Aircraft – 320 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,372 (+9);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,538 (+1);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian +general

  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 122 towns and villages and 74 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • In Khmelnytskyi Oblast, 20 people were injured in Slavuta due to the falling fragments of the intercepted enemy drones, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The aggressors have been attacking Khmelnytskyi Oblast for the fourth day. As reported, due to the Russian attack, two units of the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant sustained damage. The Ministry of Energy stated that the impact resulted in damaged windows in both administrative and residential buildings, as well as in laboratory facilities. This attack left 1,860 consumers in the towns of Slavuta and Netyshyn without electricity.  Following the drone strikes carried out by Russian forces last night, 1,760 civilian objects were affected in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, comprising 282 apartment buildings, 1,404 private properties, and 74 social infrastructure facilities, according to the information provided by first deputy head of the Regional State Administration, Serhiy Tyurin. He also noted that two churches were damaged.
  • 47 children with their families have been evacuated from Kherson Oblast under the mandatory evacuation mandate, reported the head of the Kherson Regional State Administration. He also stated that 737 children remain in particularly dangerous villages and towns in Kherson Oblast. Efforts to evacuate them are ongoing.
  • Due to constant shelling in Kharkiv Oblast, mandatory evacuation of children is being prepared from ten towns and villages in Kupyansk District. Families with children from the Borivska community are also recommended to leave.

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