Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 27.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the areas of Synkivka and Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions and continues repositioning of its forces. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled five enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka and Khromove. The enemy attempted to regain lost ground near Klishchiivka and Andriivka, where Ukrainian defenders repelled ten attacks. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. They are actively employing aviation, but Ukrainian troops are holding their defense steadfastly and inflicting losses on the occupiers. Enemy attempts to advance in the areas of Stepove, Avdiivka, Tonenke, and Severne were futile, as the Defense Forces repelled over 20 enemy attacks. On the Maryinka direction, the aggressors conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. Ukrainian troops repelled 18 enemy attacks in this area. On the Shakhtarsk and Zaporizhzhia directions, the enemy maintains military presence and is repositioning its forces. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflicting losses on the occupying forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas. 

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They made progress in some sectors. 

General conclusion: 

  • North of Odradivka, “Storm-Z” is completing the concentration of the 1307th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops. The adversary is preparing for a series of counterattacks to buy time for fortifying the defense line along Highway T0513.
  • The adversary will endeavor to maintain control over both Odradivka and Mykolaivka at all costs.
  • The adversary’s command has altered its tactics on the Avdiivka axis, intermittently intensifying forces both north and south of Avdiivka. These changes are attributed to a shortage of resources for simultaneous action on two fronts. Another reason is the attempt to disrupt the command and control of the “Khortytsia” OSG.
  • The Russian 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade will be unable to maintain the defensive line southwest of Avdiivka without deploying reserves in this direction, especially given the adversary’s lack of significant progress on the southern flank of the Avdiivka axis.
  • The decisive outcome of the combat operations in the Avdiivka area will be shaped to the south of it, where the adversary has surpassed the Defense Forces much further, advancing beyond the flank of the Avdiivka defense zone and striving to finalize this maneuver by advancing towards Orlivka.
  • In the Southwestern Theater of Operations, the adversary’s command employs deceptive measures to conceal operational-level movements. For example, the maneuver of the 2nd Combined Arms Army from the Lyman to the Avdiivka axis was executed with only two brigades, not the full complement of the army, and was not disclosed in the information domain.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been 70 combat engagements on various fronts. 
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy command continues attempts to reach the Oskil River in the Kupyansk-Borova sector.
  • The enemy has advanced near Pershotravneve and in the direction of Yahidne-Ivanivka, but effectively does not make progress in the direction of Lyman Pershyi-Synkivka. Additionally, the enemy’s tactical situation has deteriorated with the advancement of the “Khortytsia” OSG forces in the direction of Orlyanske. Units of the 25th and 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades (SMRBr) of the Russian 6th Combined Arms Army (CAA) face significant difficulties in advancing along the railway to Kupyansk and in the region between it and the Oskil River. Their attempts at a series of frontal assaults from Vilshana to Lyman Pershyi through the forest have failed.
  • The 1st and 15th Motorized Rifle Regiments (MRR), the main forces of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division (MRD) of the 1st Tank Army (TA), were halted by units of the “Khortytsia” OSG after being engaged in combat on the Pershotravneve-Petropavlivka axis. The 26th Tank Regiment (TR) of the 47th Tank Division (TD) failed to breach the Ivanivka-Kyslivka line, pausing due to the imminent threat of a flanking counterattack by “Khortytsia” OSG forces from Orlyanske. Units of the 3rd MRD failed to advance in the area of Makiyivka after attacking from Ploschanka. The adversary conducted several attacks in the Novoyehorivka area with the forces of the 252nd MRR of the 4th TD of the 1st TA. It should be considered that this direction is of secondary importance for the enemy command.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, north of Andriivka, the adversary’s forward units have pulled back from positions near the ponds and further to the east of the village, regrouping their forces. The forward units of the “Khortytsia” OSG in the Kurdyumivka and Zelenopillia areas are executing a series of actions aimed at establishing advantageous conditions for their continued advance. They conducted fire engagements on the units of the 51st Airborne Assault Regiment (AAR) of the 106th Air Assault Division (AAD) and the 57th SMRBr, which currently maintain control over wooded areas on both sides of the railway north of Zelenopillia. This adds resilience to their defense.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, subsequent to the breakthrough of the adversary’s 114th SMRBr to the railway northwest of Avdiivka in the direction of Stepove and the capture of Height 230 “Terikon,” the enemy command is attempting to expedite their advance towards Tonenke and Severne, where they have achieved tactical success. The 114th SMRBr is trying to consolidate on the new defensive line, yet they face active resistance from the “Tavriya” OSG. The OSG continues to maintain a staunch hold on Stepove, Berdychi, and the northern section of the Avdiivka coking chemical plant.
  • South of the Avdiivka defense area, the enemy will attempt to break through to Orlivka and complete the encirclement maneuver on the southern flank.
  • Berdyansk Direction: The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Novoukrayinka and Staromayorske. 
  • Russian forces suffered significant losses and retreated after an attack near Volodyne. They are regrouping on the Shakhtarsk direction. The adversary made slight advances to the north and northeast of Pryiutne. Adverse weather conditions hinder ground operations in this area, and in the vicinity of Velyka Novosilka, Russian troops are struggling with rodent infestations in residential premises.
  • Tokmak Direction: The “Tavriya OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Verbove and attacked near Robotyne and Verbove. However, due to inclement weather, they slowed the pace of their offensive actions in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Neither side’s artillery is actively firing due to poor visibility.
  • Russian forces did not engage in offensive actions and continued their regrouping.
  • Kherson direction: The “Odesa” OSG forces launched attacks near Pidstepne, Pishchanivka, and Poyma, making slight progress to the north of Pidstepne. They are holding positions in Krynky and continue to transfer small reinforcement groups to the left bank.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational maritime region, there were 3 enemy ships on combat duty, including 1 cruise missile carrier; in the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship. In the Mediterranean Sea, there were 3 enemy ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier with a total salvo of 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in enemy disposition: 

  • On the Kupyansk direction, the adversary has amassed reserves, comprising the 79th MRR of the 18th MRD of the 11th Army Corps (AC) of the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet, the 245th MRR, the 153rd TR of the 47th TD of the 1st TA, the 1483rd, 1438th, and 347th MRRs of the Russian Territorial Troops. Some of these forces have already been partially deployed into the operation.
  • On the direction of Klishchiivka-southwestern Bakhmut edge, the 1428th MRR of the Russian Territorial Troops has permanently lost combat readiness and is being replaced by units of the 4th SMRBr of the 2nd AC. In the Opytne area, units of the 83rd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade (SAABr) are concentrated, undergoing restoration procedures.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy’s 2nd CAA has been redeployed, but not in full composition. Only the 21st and 30th SMRBrs have been dispatched. The 15th SMRBr is still deployed on the Lyman direction.
  • Over the past few months, the Russian command has been assembling “Storm-Z” detachments not only with former prisoners, but also with servicemen who have committed military crimes or serious infractions in the combat zone.
  • Some units of the 7th Airborne Assault Division (AAD) of the Russian Airborne Forces are currently engaged in combat operations as part of the “Dniepr” Grouping of Forces. Additionally, the 44th AAD is also active in this area.
  • South of Avdiivka, the adversary has concentrated the majority of forces from the 1st AC of the 8th CAA, along with a contingent from the 20th MRD of the 8th CAA and the 6th MRD of the 3rd AC. To the north of Avdiivka, operations are being conducted by the 114th and 21st SMRBrs, the 1140th MRR of the Territorial Troops, the 109th Rifle Regiment and four Rifle Battalions of the mobilization reserve are operating.
  • Since October 10th, Russian forces have incurred approximately 5,000 casualties, including both killed and wounded, and have lost approximately 400 units of armored vehicles near Avdiivka and Maryinka. From October 10th to 20th, they lost at least 109 pieces of military equipment in the Avdiivka area, predominantly armored fighting vehicles and tanks.

Indicators of escalation: 

  • The Russian Federation conducted exercises of the strategic nuclear forces, marking the first exercise of a mass nuclear strike for the first time in a long while.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • In the near future, the adversary will attempt to break through to Orlianka and complete the encirclement of the fortified Avdiivka area from the south.
  • The enemy’s 35th Army has received orders to hold the Novokarlivka-Myrne-Dorozhnyanka-Marfopil line on the Polohy direction at all costs. The commander of the 35th Army will concentrate the main efforts on the Polohy – Novokarlivka axis (38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) and Polohy – Dorozhnyanka axis (64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade). The 69th Separate Cover Brigade will make every effort to retain control over Myrne and Zahirne for as long as possible. In case of failure, it will withdraw to the prepared defense line to the south, allocating a battalion for operations in adjacent sectors. The evolving situation in the Novopokrovka, Luhivske, and Dorozhnyanka areas renders this course of action by the enemy highly probable.
  • The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army is expected to be redeployed from the area between Pryiutne and Zavitne Bazhannia to the Kherson direction.
  • The enemy’s command of the “Dnipro” Operational Group is gradually increasing its efforts in the occupied territory of Kherson Oblast. The relocation of troops from the Tokmak direction indicates high attention to this direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 27.10.23 

Personnel – almost 297,680 people (+560);

Tanks – 5,145 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,726 (+11);

Artillery systems – 7,162 (+7);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 834 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 556 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,513 (+6);

Aircraft – 320 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,390 (+1);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,538 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian +general

  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine. 107 towns and villages and 35 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the night, Russian forces launched 6 UAVs of the “Shahed” type and a ballistic missile “Iskander-M” towards Ukraine in the direction of Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian Air defense forces shot down 5 drones within the borders of Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts.
  • As reported by the head of Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, the enemy conducted a missile strike on Izyum overnight, presumably from the S-300 SAM system. A building of the State Emergency Service unit was damaged — 8 rescuers were injured. Four of them are hospitalized in a moderately severe condition.
  • On the evening of October 27, the Russian aggressors shelled Kherson, resulting in seven people being wounded. Two private houses were destroyed, partial damage occurred in three buildings, and another ten residences were affected.
  • Police officers, volunteers, and authorities have effectively evacuated 90 children from areas at risk of shelling  in Kherson Oblast, where mandatory evacuations of children with parents or legal guardians from 23 populated areas are currently in progress.
  • As of the morning of October 27, since the start of the full-scale aggression by the Russian Federation, 510 Ukrainian children have lost their lives, while another 1,139 have been wounded, according to the Prosecutor General’s Office reports. These figures are not final. Work is underway to establish them in areas of combat, temporarily occupied, and liberated territories. The highest number of affected children is in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson and Kyiv Oblasts.
  • Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, psychologists of the State Emergency Service have provided support to over 228,000 individuals, including approximately 43,000 children and over 9,000 individuals with limited mobility.
  • Ukraine has repatriated the bodies of another 50 fallen defenders to the territory under Ukrainian control.
  • At least 600 people from the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including children, are currently in captivity of Russians, stated the head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, Yuriy Malashko.

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