Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 28.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, the enemy refrained from conducting offensive (assault) actions and continued regrouping of its troops. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost ground near Andriivka, where Ukrainian defenders repelled five enemy attacks. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Russian forces persist in their attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Still, Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain their defense, causing significant losses to the enemy. The adversary’s offensive actions in the areas of Stepove, Avdiivka, and Pervomaiske were unsuccessful, with Ukrainian Defense Forces repelling 15 enemy attacks. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. Ukrainian troops repelled over 20 enemy attacks in these areas. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian defenders thwarted all enemy attacks near Vodyane, Zolota Nyva, and Staromayorske. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the adversary attempted to regain lost ground northwest of Verbove, but without success. Simultaneously, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflicting losses on Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas. 

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, southwest of Donetsk, in the western parts of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. They made progress in some sectors. 

General conclusion: 

  • The military-political leadership of the Russian Federation is currently in desperate need of at least a local operational-tactical level victory.
  • The mission assigned to the 1st, 5th, 9th, and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the adversary’s 1st Army Corps is the initial disruption of the defense system of the “Tavriya” OSG on the Avdiivka axis, with an anticipated high level of casualties.
  • The adversary’s command is actively deploying mobilization reserve formations to breach the defense of the “Tavriya” OSG near Avdiivka. These formations are not optimized for swift advancement into the depth of the defense following a breach. Therefore, regular formations of the Russian Armed Forces will be mobilized for this purpose.
  • The adversary’s decision to halt active offensive operations on the Lyman direction is attributed to the imperative of constituting operational reserves for forthcoming actions on the Avdiivka direction. This rationale underscores the substitution of relatively combat-ready units from the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies of the Central Military District with forces from the 25th Combined Arms Army, which are notably less prepared for sustained combat operations.
  • The heightened activity of the Russian 1st Army Corps serves a dual purpose. It acts as a smokescreen to mask the relocation of the 2nd and 41st Russian Combined Arms Armies from their positions near Lyman to Avdiivka, camouflaged as a “reinforcement effort for the 1st Army Corps, purportedly affected by losses.”
  • The adversary’s command is carefully concealing the scope of its offensive operation on the Avdiivka direction.
  • The effectiveness of the “Tavriya” OSG’s defense of Avdiivka depends on the capacity of its forces to steadfastly maintain their positions in this sector, inflicting losses on the enemy at a rate surpassing the adversary’s capability to bolster the combat readiness of their strike groups.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been 60 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced near Ivanivka and captured new positions south of Torske. They launched attacks near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Nadiya, Makiyivka, and Kreminna. The adversary on the Kupyansk axis is expending fewer ammunition rounds and has reduced shelling by half due to the rain.
  • Forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG attacked near Synkivka, Tymkivka, Petropavlivka, and Serhiyivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces are actively conducting defense and counterattacks to improve their tactical positions when the opportunity arises. Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and Kurdyumivka, repelling five Russian attacks near Bohdanivka and Khromove and over ten attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
  • Russian forces are attempting to seize the initiative on the Bakhmut direction, advancing south of Berkhivsky Reservoir, on the heights northeast of Khromove, and achieving minor successes west of Kurdyumivka. They attacked near Dubovo-Vasylivka and repelled their positions near the railway east of Klishchiivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the adversary is attempting to launch attacks on adjacent directions and sectors to Avdiivka. On the Maryinka-Heorhiivka axis, advanced units of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (SMRBr) of the 1st Army Corps (AC) of the 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA) attempted to advance with the support of units from the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (MRR) of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division (MRD)
  • The adversary’s command has already deployed the main forces and assets of the 1st AC, the 20th and 150th MRDs of the 8th CAA into the operation. The 2nd CAA is being redeployed from the Lyman direction. In the Vodyane area, units of the 55th SMRBr of the 41st CAA have been observed.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, the forces of “Tavriya” OSG launched an attack on the Novodonetske – Novomayorske line.
  • Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Staromayorske and Zolota Nyva. Their counterattack in the direction of Novodonetske was ineffective. The 394th MRR of the 127th MRD of the 5th CAA is consolidating positions northeast of Pryiutne.
  • On the Tokmak direction, the forces of the “Tavriya” OSG made slight progress toward Robotyne and launched attacks northwest of Verbove, near Nesteryanka, Kopani, Rivne, and Novoprokopivka.
  • Russian forces withdrew from positions near Nesteryanka after a counterattack by Ukrainian forces in this area. They unsuccessfully attacked northwest of Verbove and conducted a series of counterattacks along the line of Kopani – Robotyne – Novoprokopivka – Verbove.
  • On the Kherson direction, the forces of the “Odesa” OSG have progressed further south under the Antonivskyi Road Bridge north of Oleshky. They maintained positions in Krynky, launched an attack near Pishchanivka, and continued to operate along the road near Pidstepne and Kozachi Lagery.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, there were 2 enemy ships on combat duty, including 1 cruise missile carrier; in the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship. In the Mediterranean Sea, there were 3 enemy ships on combat duty, including 1 cruise missile carrier with a total salvo of 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in enemy disposition: 

  • Units of the adversary’s 15th SMRBr of the 2nd CAA  are deployed near Kreminna.
  • The adversary’s grouping on the Avdiivka direction includes 12 brigades, 16 regiments, 11 mobilization reserve regiments, 24 separate battalions, 3 BARS and “Storm-Z” detachments. Additionally, there are 3 regiments and 9 battalions/detachments in reserve.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The adversary will continue the offensive operation in the vicinity of Avdiivka and intensify efforts on specific tactical directions and sectors.
  • The Russian command will compel the command of the “Tavriya” OSG to respond in a manner advantageous for the Russians and engage their operational reserves in this area.
  • In the near future, the adversary will attempt to break through to Orlianka and complete the encirclement of the fortified Avdiivka area from the south.
  • The enemy’s 35th Army has received orders to hold the Novokarlivka-Myrne-Dorozhnyanka-Marfopil line on the Polohy direction at all costs. The commander of the 35th Army will concentrate the main efforts on the Polohy – Novokarlivka axis (38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) and Polohy – Dorozhnyanka axis (64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade). The 69th Separate Cover Brigade will make every effort to retain control over Myrne and Zahirne for as long as possible. In case of failure, it will withdraw to the prepared defense line to the south, allocating a battalion for operations in adjacent sectors. The evolving situation in the Novopokrovka, Luhivske, and Dorozhnyanka areas renders this course of action by the enemy highly probable.
  • The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army is expected to be redeployed from the area between Pryiutne and Zavitne Bazhannia to the Kherson direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 28.10.23 

Personnel – almost 298,420 people (+740);

Tanks – 5,167 (+22);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,749 (+23);

Artillery systems – 7,180 (+18);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 834 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 558 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,524 (+11);

Aircraft – 320 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,399 (+9);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,541 (+3);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).


  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 101 towns and villages and 79 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched four “Iskander-K” missiles towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, out of which three were intercepted. The fourth missile also did not reach its target. The launches originated from the area of Djankoy in temporarily occupied Crimea.

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