Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 29.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the adversary conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the areas of Synkivka and Ivanivka. Ukrainian troops repelled 5 enemy attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions and continued regrouping of troops. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled enemy attacks near Khromove. The enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost ground near Klishchiivka and Andriivka. Ukrainian forces repelled over 10 enemy attacks in this area. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Russian forces persist in their attempts to encircle Avdiivka. However, Ukrainian troops are holding the defense steadfastly, inflicting significant losses on the occupiers. The adversary’s offensive actions in the areas of Keramik, Novokalynove, Stepove, Avdiivka, Tonenke, and Opytne were unsuccessful. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled over 15 enemy attacks. On the Maryinka direction, the Russian forces conducted futile assault operations in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, where Ukrainian defenders repelled over 20 enemy attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian troops repelled all enemy attacks near Zolota Nyva and Staromayorske. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy attempted to regain lost ground west of Verbove but was unsuccessful. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflicting losses on the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas. 

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, southwest of Donetsk, in the western parts of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. They made progress in some sectors. 

General conclusion: 

  • The adversary’s command is displaying an emerging realization that the offensive in the Avdiivka sector has faltered, attributed to resource constraints. Therefore, it is expected that the enemy will transition to a tactic similar to what they employed during the battles for Bakhmut – a step-by-step advancement from position to position.
  • After the redeployment of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 1st Separate Tank Brigade to the Avdiivka area, the situation for the “Tavriya” OSG on this front remains challenging but stable.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been 70 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked near Kreminna, Synkivka, and Kyslivka and advanced near Makiyivka.
  • The forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG attacked near Synkivka, Nadiya, Torske, Dibrova, and Hryhorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG are impeding the deployment of Russian artillery along the southern flank of Bakhmut by the effective use of UAVs. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian assaults near Klishchiivka and Andriivka. The Ukrainian 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade initiated an advance in two directions – towards Zelenopillia and through Kurdyumivka.
  • Russian forces are shelling Ukrainian positions at night to avoid Ukrainian UAVs. The enemy attacked in the area of Dubovo-Vasylivka, Khromove, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces continue to attack and advance in the area of Avdiivka, despite incurring significant personnel losses. The enemy has been advancing in the areas of Novokalynove, Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, Severne, and made progress near Novomykhailivka and Stepove. They also launched an attack near the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, south of Stepove, and currently control the position known as “Terikon”. Intense battles persist along the railway southeast of Stepove and northwest of “Terikon”. Russian forces have advanced approximately 600 meters from the northern section of Avdiivka industrial zone, with the intention of exploiting this terrain for potential ingress into the city itself.
  • The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG have repelled Russian assaults near Stepove, Avdiivka, Keramik, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, and Vodyane. Through a counterattack in the Spartak area, the Defense Forces captured two significant strongholds, forcing the enemy to engage their available reserves to stabilize the situation.
  • Berdiansk direction: The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG repelled enemy attacks near Staromayorske and south of Zolota Nyva.
  • Russian forces counterattacked near Staromayorske and from Novodonetske. They are reinforcing their positions northeast of Pryiutne
  • Tokmak direction: The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG launched attacks on Nesteryanka, Kopani, Rivne, near Novoprokopivka and Verbove, and conducted an assault operation between Robotyne and Verbove. They are making gradual progress near Robotyne.
  • Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions to the northwest of Verbove. 
  • The Defense Forces launched ATACMS missile strikes on the Tokmak airfield.
  • Kherson direction: The forces of the “Odesa” OSG hold positions in Krynky on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast and have advanced towards Pishchanivka. Combat engagements took place near Poyma, Pishchanivka, Pidstepne and Krynky. Ukrainian Defense Forces launched an attack to the northeast of Oleshky and made some progress. On the left bank of the Dnipro, the marine infantry of the Defense Forces maintains three bridgeheads with a total area of 8 by 3 km.
  • Russian forces have made slight advancements to the east of Krynky.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, two enemy ships were on combat duty, including one cruise missile carrier. In the Azov Sea, there was one enemy ship, and in the Mediterranean Sea, there were three enemy ships, one of them being a cruise missile carrier with a salvo of eight cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition: 

  • Former mercenaries from the “Wagner” Private Military Company have enlisted in the newly formed “Armenian Volunteer Battalion ArBat” in Horlivka. The battalion is experiencing significant losses near Avdiivka.
  • The Russian Aerospace Forces group at the airfields in Crimea consists of 58 combat aircraft and 58 helicopters, with 28 of them being strike aircraft.

Escalation indicators:

  • Russian instructors have arrived at the 927th UAV Training Center of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus (military unit 92504) in Bereza town, Brest region, where they will conduct training on UAV operations.
  • Russian forces have commenced the utilization of the new kamikaze UAV “Izdeliye-53” (“Italmaz”). This UAV incorporates an automated targeting system with the capability to discern various target types, thereby enhancing the probability of a successful strike. Recently, the adversary has initiated their deployment for striking targets in Kyiv Oblast.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The adversary will continue the offensive operation in the Avdiivka area and intensify efforts on specific tactical directions and sectors.
  • The Russian command will compel the command of the “Tavriya” OSG to respond in a manner advantageous for the Russians and engage their operational reserves in this area.
  • In the near future, the adversary will attempt to break through to Orlianka and complete the encirclement of the fortified Avdiivka area from the south.
  • The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army is expected to be redeployed from the area between Pryiutne and Zavitne Bazhannia to the Kherson direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 29.10.23 

Personnel – almost 299,080 people (+660);

Tanks – 5,175 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,758 (+9);

Artillery systems – 7,188 (+8);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 834 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 558 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,532 (+8);

Aircraft – 320 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,399 (0);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,544 (+3);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 102 towns and villages and 47 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the night, Ukrainian Air Defense Forces successfully intercepted all 5 strike drones of the “Shahed” type that the enemy used to target Ukraine. They were neutralized over Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts. Additionally, the Russians launched an X-59 missile towards targets in the Myrhorod district of Poltava Oblast. Preliminary reports indicate no casualties or significant damage.

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