Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 30.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the areas of Synkivka and Ivanivka, where Ukrainian defenders repelled 7 enemy attacks. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian troops repelled an enemy attack southeast of Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost ground near Andriivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy does not cease attempts to encircle Avdiivka, but Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy. The adversary’s offensive actions in the areas of Novokalynove, Avdiivka, Opytne, and Pervomaiske were unsuccessful. Ukrainian troops repelled over 10 enemy attacks in this area. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, where Ukrainian troops repelled 20 enemy attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled an enemy attack south of Vuhledar. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy attempted five times to regain lost ground in the area of Robotyne but was unsuccessful. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflicting losses on the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas. 

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, in the western parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They made some progress west of Donetsk. 

General conclusion: 

  • The actions of the Russian 25th Combined Arms Army on the Lyman direction and the 68th Army Corps on the Shakhtarsk directions are synchronized with the enemy forces’ operations on the Avdiivka direction, indicative of concerted actions guided by a unified plan formulated by the Russian military command in the Southwestern Theater of Operations. The execution of this plan was the subject of discussion between Putin and Gerasimov in Rostov-on-Don on October 20, 2023.
  • The adversary’s command is deliberating on the approach to break through to Orlivka from the area north of Avdiivka – whether through the coke chemical plant (a shorter route) or via Stepove and Berdychi (a longer route).
  • The adversary’s command anticipates that the 1st Army Corps of the 41st Combined Arms Army, operating in the Vodyane – Tonenke and Vodyane – Severne sectors, will accomplish their designated combat missions. This expectation is based on the assumption that they will divert a share of the reserves of the “Tavriya” OSG, thereby establishing advantageous circumstances for the ensuing maneuvers of the Russian 15th and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, which will be launching an attack on the coke chemical plant.
  • The hypothetical assault on the Avdiivka Coke Chemical Plant will present fundamental differences compared to the assault on the industrial zone in Mariupol. This stems from the challenge of isolating the Defense Forces and achieving a superior firepower position in the operational area, including in terms of air superiority.
  • The commander of the adversary’s “Dnipro” Grouping of Forces, General Makarevich, has been relieved of his position due to his marked passivity in commanding on the Kherson direction, a disregard for the dynamic operational situation, and discrepancies between his reports and the actual circumstances. General Tepyinsky has been appointed to replace him.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense will begin relocating newly formed military units from the Leningrad and Moscow military districts in the first quarter of 2024.
  • 170 former mercenaries from the “Wagner” Private Military Company joined the “Kadyrovtsy” units.
  • The United States and Ukraine have completed the FrankenSAM project, within which the Buk 9K37 (NATO reporting name SA-11 Gadfly) surface-to-air missile systems gained the capability to employ the Sidewinder and Sea Sparrow guided missiles. This will compensate for the shortage of standard 9M38 missiles. Additionally, the integration of the radar systems of the Soviet era with the Hawk air defense system and with the Sidewinder and Sea Sparrow guided missiles has been concluded.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been 60 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG repelled over 7 Russian attacks near Synkivka and Ivanivka and effectively repelled an assault near Petropavlivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces did not engage in offensive and continued regrouping in this area. The enemy’s 3rd Motorized Rifle Division advanced near Makiyivka. The 25th Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Combined Arms Army (CAA) achieved tactical successes near Stepova Novoselivka, and the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade improved its tactical position near Dibrova.
  • The enemy’s forces repelled 2 Ukrainian assaults near Synkivka and Nadiya, as well as 5 assaults near Yampolivka, Dibrova, and Hryhorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG advanced east of the railway line south of Andriivka and launched an attack near Klishchiivka, attempting to cross the railway near the village. 
  • Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Khromove, trying to regain lost positions near Klishchiivka and Andriivka, and pushed back Ukrainian units from positions near the Berkhivsky reservoir.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Keramik, Stepove, Novokalynove, Avdiivka, Tonenke, Opytne, Maryinka, and Pervomaiske. They also launched a counterattack near Spartak.
  • Russian forces are preparing to attack the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, consolidating their positions at the Height 230 “Terikon” and gradually advancing south of Avdiivka and near Severne. They have progressed south of Krasnohorivka and improved their tactical position near Novomykhailivka.
  • The adversary’s command is conducting troop regrouping on this front.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, the “Tavriya” OSG forces launched attacks near Urozhaine and Staromayorske, intensively shelled Russian positions along the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and repelled Russian assaults near Staromayorske and Zolota Nyva.
  • Russian forces attacked near Staromayorske and west of Novodonetske.
  • On the Tokmak direction, the “Tavriya” OSG forces managed to establish stable control over some Russian positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction. They attempted to expand their offensive closer to Nesteryanka, Kopani, and towards Novofedorivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces tried to advance towards Novoprokopivka and Verbove, striking military targets in Tokmak, occupied by the Russian forces, and Vasylivka. They repelled Russian attacks on Robotyne and to the west of Verbove.
  • The intensity of combat operations on the Zaporizhzhia direction has decreased, but Ukrainian forces continue their attempts to break through the Russian defense along the Kopani – Robotyne line.
  • Russian forces launched a counterattack near Robotyne.
  • On the Kherson direction, the “Odesa” OSG forces maintain positions on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast and continue conducting raids across the river, attempting to advance towards Pishchanivka. They hold a small foothold near Krynky and conduct Dnipro river crossings in groups ranging from 50 to 70 individuals in three directions. They continue to operate along the railway bridge on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.
  • Russian forces employed 30 guided air bombs (KAB) to strike targets on the western bank of Kherson Oblast.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational maritime zone, there were 5 enemy ships on combat duty, including 1 cruise missile carrier, in the Azov Sea – 1 enemy ship; and in the Mediterranean Sea – 3 enemy ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier, with a total salvo capability of 8 cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition: 

  • Units of the 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (SMRBr) of the 1st Army Corps (AC) of the Russian 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA) are operating in the area of Vodyane – Severne – Tonenke.
  • Units of the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment (MRR) of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division (MRD) of the 8th CAA have advanced 500 meters north of the intersection of Highway H20 and E50.
  • The Russian command has redeployed forces from the 2nd AC and the 41st CAA to reinforce the 1st AC on the Avdiivka direction.
  • The 33rd MRR of the 20th MRD of the 8th CAA is operating near Maryinka. 
  • The adversary has reinforced their advanced positions in the area of Hight 230 with units from the 109th Rifle Regiment of mobilization reserve of the 1st AC and the two  companies of the  “Storm-Z” in preparation for intensive offensive actions in this sector.
  • For operations on the Avdiivka direction, the main forces of the 8th and 2nd CAAs, a portion of the 41st CAA, and the 90th TD have been deployed.

Escalation indicators:

  • The Russian forces have initiated the large-scale deployment of the automated electronic warfare (EW) system RB-109A “Bylina”.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • After completing the regrouping, the adversary is expected to resume massed attacks and assault actions on the Avdiivka front in the near future.
  • The 114th SMRBr of the adversary’s 1st AC, along with the 15th SMRBr and the 277th Rifle Battalion of the mobilization reserve, will attempt to break through towards the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, as well as in the direction of Stepove and Berdychi.
  • Anticipate the deployment of units from the recently established 21st SMRBr of the 2nd CAA in the Kamianka-Pisochny Quarry sector. This is aimed to circumvent the pond-laden terrain, securing the southern flank in support of the 114th and 15th SMRBrs, which will be attacking the coke and chemical plant.
  • The 34th SMRBr of the 49th CAA is expected to be redeployed from the area between Pryiutne and Zavitne Bazhannia to the Kherson direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.10.23 

Personnel – almost 299,940 people (+860);

Tanks – 5,190 (+15);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,775 (+17);

Artillery systems – 7,202 (+14);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 834 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 559 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,555 (+23);

Aircraft – 321 (+1);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,419 (+20);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,544 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).


  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 14 regions of Ukraine. 142 towns and villages and 46 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the night, the Air Defense Forces  shot down all enemy airborne targets, including 12 “Shahed” drones and two Kh-59 missiles. The objects were destroyed over Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
  • One civilian killed, and three injured in Russia’s overnight shelling of downtown Kherson. In Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, the Russian forces attacked a critical infrastructure object, resulting in a power outage in the city. Experts are assessing the extent of the damage.
  • On October 30, a shuttle bus came under enemy fire in Kherson. At least seven people have been injured.
  • In the morning, Russian forces launched rockets at the Odesa district of Odesa Oblast, targeting a shipyard. At least four employees were injured. The administrative building and the equipment of the enterprise were damaged.

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