Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 31.10.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations near Synkivka, where Ukrainian defenders repelled two enemy attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain the lost position near Klishchiivka, where Ukrainian troops repelled three attacks. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy does not cease attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Still, Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy. The enemy’s offensive actions in the areas of Avdiivka, Tonenke, and Pervomaiske were unsuccessful. The Ukrainian Forces repelled over 5 enemy attacks. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. Ukrainian troops repelled over 15 invader attacks in this area. On the Shakhtarsk and Zaporizhzhia directions, Ukrainian defenders repelled an enemy attack near Staromayorske. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflicting losses on the occupying forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas. 

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, in the western parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and made progress west of Donetsk. 

General conclusion: 

  • Russian forces are endeavoring to replenish combat vehicle losses in the vicinity of Avdiivka and are poised for a robust frontal strike on Ukrainian positions.
  • The Russian occupying authorities have implemented autonomous vehicle detection systems at ten crossing points along the border between Russia and the occupied regions of Ukraine. This system gathers data regarding the location and categorization of vehicles at checkpoints, relaying it to the situational center of the Russian Ministry of Transport.
  • Russian forces are considering equipping aircraft like the Su-34, Su-30, and Su-35 with new glide bombs.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 36 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces made slight progress towards Torske, near Kreminna, unsuccessfully attacked in the areas of Synkivka, Ivanivka, and southeast of Terny. They continue attempts to take the left bank of the Oskil River. Russian forces are launching attacks with assault groups ranging from 10 to 30 individuals.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG troops counterattacked and regained several positions near Raigorodka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG troops advanced northeast of Kurdyumivka, progressed beyond the railway line south of Andriivka, and established themselves in new positions. Positional battles are ongoing northwest of Bakhmut in the areas of Berkhivka, Vasyukivka, and Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
  • Russian forces have significantly reinforced their grouping near Bakhmut and transitioned from defensive to more active operations.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces captured Novoselivka, advanced into the “Khymik” microdistrict to the south of Avdiivka, near Novomykhailivka. They achieved successes near Berdychi and seized a quarry near Severne.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG troops repelled unsuccessful enemy attacks near Avdiivka, Novokalynove, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, and to the south of Vuhledar.
  • Berdyansk direction: Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Staromayorske, and launched an attack north of Pryiutne, near Novodonetske and Novomayorske. Intense battles are ongoing for control over the Hrusheva ravine to the northeast of Pryiutne.
  • Tokmak direction: The “Tavriya” OSG troops advanced to the west of Robotyne and launched an attack to the northwest of Verbove, near Kopani and Novoprokopivka.
  • Kherson direction: The “Odesa” OSG forces hold positions on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast, controlling the central part of Krynky. They have slightly expanded their area of control to the west of the village.
  • Russian forces maintain positions in the forested areas to the east of Krynky. They are experiencing deficiencies in counter-battery, electronic warfare, and command capabilities.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational zone, there were 2 enemy ships on combat duty; in the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship; in the Mediterranean Sea, there were 2 enemy ships. There are no cruise missiles on board the carriers.

Change in enemy disposition: 

  • The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 78th Army Corps is conducting combat operations near Novomykhailivka.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Following the completion of their regrouping, it is anticipated that the adversary will imminently reinitiate massed attacks and assault operations on the Avdiivka front.
  • The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the adversary’s 1st Army Corps, in conjunction with the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 277th Rifle Battalion of the mobilization reserve, will make an endeavor to breach towards the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, as well as in the direction of Stepove and Berdychi.
  • Anticipate the deployment of units of the 21th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army in the Kamianka-Pisochny quarry sector. This is aimed to circumvent the pond-laden terrain, securing the southern flank in support of the 114th and 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades in their assault on the [Avdiivka] coke and chemical plant.
  • The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army is expected to be redeployed from the area between Pryiutne and Zavitne Bazhannia to the Kherson direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 31.10.23 

Personnel – almost 300,810 people (+870);

Tanks – 5,211 (+21);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,804 (+29);

Artillery systems – 7,227 (+25);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 844 (+10);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 562 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,590 (+35);

Aircraft – 321 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,440 (+21);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,546 (+2);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian +general

  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 12 regions of Ukraine. 150 towns and villages and 163 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Due to the Russian shelling overnight: In Donetsk Oblast, an energy infrastructure facility caught fire. By morning, the Russian forces had shelled 17 private houses and a bakery plant in Selydove. In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian occupiers shelled Vovchansk after midnight. In Kherson Oblast, Russian forces carried out 14 airstrikes using aerial bombs, affecting Mykilske, Krynky, and Ivanivka.
  • Over 500 Ukraine’s educational institutions out of the 3,500 damaged by Russian occupiers have been restored, according to the  Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal.

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