Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 02.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations near Synkivka, Ivanivka, and Stelmakhivka, where Ukrainian defenders repelled 10 enemy attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions. On the Bakhmut direction, the Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost ground near Khromove, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. Ukrainian forces repelled 15 enemy attacks in this area. Simultaneously, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the area of Pivdenne. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy, with the support of aviation, persists in their attempts to encircle Avdiivka. However, Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain their defense, inflicting losses on the occupiers. The enemy’s offensive actions in the areas of Severne and Pervomaiske were unsuccessful, with the Defense Forces repelling 7 enemy attacks. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations near Maryinka. Ukrainian troops repelled over 20 attacks in this area. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations near Staromayorske. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions. The Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflicting losses on the occupying forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas. 

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, in the western parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and made progress in different sectors. 

General conclusion: 

  • The Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation is forming new units of the National Guard of Russia to conduct counter-sabotage measures on the occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts. These units will be based in close proximity to Voronezh, comprising an estimated 10,000 personnel.
  • The Aerospace Forces of the Russian Armed Forces are attempting to identify the vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s air defense system and target them specifically.
  • The adversary is compensating for artillery losses by extensively employing FPV drones.
  • On the Kherson direction, the operational deployment of units from the 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th Combined Arms Army has been completed. Two regiments of the division are already engaged in combat. The deployment of the 40th Army Corps is nearing completion.
  • The repositioning of separate units and subunits from the 58th Combined Arms Army and the 7th Air Assault Division of Russian Airborne Forces from the Zaporizhzhia direction to the Kherson direction has been completed (including the 177th Separate Marine Regiment, 171st Separate Air Assault Battalion, and several others).
  • The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army has been withdrawn to the rear after attacks on Pryiutne and can be rapidly relocated from Berdiansk to the Kherson direction.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been 57 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced east of Petropavlivka, towards Yampolivka and Torske. They continued attempts to reclaim Kupyansk and repelled Ukrainian assaults near Synkivka, in the area of Grekivka and Serebryansk Forest. Russian aviation persists in bombing river crossings across the Oskil River.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG troops repelled over 10 Russian attacks near Synkivka, Ivanivka, Stelmakhivka, and Nadiya.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to improve their positions near Klishchiivka and Andriivka. They attacked near Pivdenne but did not make progress. They tried to reclaim their positions in Bohdanivka.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG troops launched an attack near Zelenopillia and the section of the railway between Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced from positions in Krasnohorivka through the railway towards Novokalynove and Keramik, in the areas of Severne and Pervomaiske. They attacked from Vodyane towards Pivnichne. The enemy did not achieve any confirmed successes near Avdiivka, Stepove, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka. The 90th Tank Division is being concentrated in the rear of the formation to enhance potential progress.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG troops counterattacked north of Krasnohorivka but were forced to withdraw to the original line. They are effectively holding back Russian attacks near Tonenke and have made progress south of Novomykhailivka. Units of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade, and 1st Separate Tank Brigade are repelling enemy attacks on the northern flank of the Avdiivka defense sector, while the 53rd and 110th Separate Mechanized Brigades are doing the same on the southern flank.
  • Berdyansk Direction: Russian forces conducted unsuccessful assaults near Prechystivka and Zolota Nyva. Units of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 143rd and 394th Separate Motorized Regiments of the enemy’s 127th Separate Motorized Division advanced to the west of Staromayorske.
  • Tokmak Direction: The “Tavriya” OSG forces made slight progress from Shcherbaky to Myrne, achieving success to the west of Robotyne. They launched an attack near Novoprokopivka and Verbove.
  • Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions near Verbove.
  • Kherson Direction: The “Odesa” OSG forces hold three bridgeheads on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast: in the area of the Antonivskyi road bridge and the “Dacha” area, opposite Prydniprovske village (near the Antonivskyi railway bridge) to the railway bridge over the Upper Konka River, and in the area of Krynka village up to the “Iskra” recreation base. The Defense Forces launched attacks near Poyma and Pishchanivka. Combat actions are ongoing near Krynka, where Ukrainian marines have set up minefields and maintained their positions.
  • Units of the 127th Separate Ranger Brigade, 177th Separate Marine Regiment, and 1441st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops made unsuccessful attempts to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead near the Antonivskyi railway bridge. They managed to maintain their positions in the northern part of Pishchanivka after a counterattack by the “Odesa” OSG units. Units of the 127th Separate Ranger Brigade, 95th Motorized Rifle Regiment, and the illegal armed formation “81st Separate Volunteer Special Forces Brigade” made attempts to neutralize the Ukrainian bridgehead at the Antonivskyi road bridge but were unable to progress beyond the remnants of the “Nairi” cafe – “Boat Base.” In the direction of Krynky village, the adversary deployed units from the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, launching unsuccessful attacks both along the coastal road from the Korsunka side and directly from the T2206 road through the forest.
  • Russian forces are launching heavy aerial strikes and from TOS-1A systems.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, there was one enemy ship on combat duty; there was one enemy ship in the Azov Sea; in the Mediterranean Sea, there were two enemy ships. There were no cruise missiles aboard the missile carriers.

Change in enemy disposition: 

  • The 127th Motorized Rifle Division (MRD) of the 5th Combined Arms Army (CAA) of the Eastern Military District is advancing near Rivnopillia.
  • In the area of Oleshky and north of it, the 127th Separate Ranger Brigade of the 18th CAA, units of the 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (SMRBr) of the 49th CAA, the 95th Motorized Rifle Regiment (MRR), the 1441st MRR of the Russian Territorial Troops, and the paramilitary formation “81st Separate Volunteer Special Forces Brigade “Medvedi” are operating. In the area of Pischanka and Poyma villages, units of the 171st Separate Airborne Assault Battalion of the 7th Airborne Assault Division and the 177th Separate Marine Regiment of the Russian Caspian Flotilla are deployed. In the area of Kozachi Lagery village, units of the 205th SMRBr of the 49th CAA, the 1445th MRR of the Russian Territorial Troops, and the 24th MRR of the 70th MRD are deployed. In preparation for future operations towards Krynka village, units of the 144th SMRBr of the 40th Army Corps are being deployed behind the combat formations of the 26th MRR of the 70th MRD. Additionally, a “Storm-Z” detachment is operating in this area. Units of the 10th Separate SOF Brigade and the 25th Separate SOF Regiment carry out special reconnaissance tasks in the sector spanning from Oleshky to Nova Kakhovka.
  • The Northern, Pacific, Black Sea, Baltic Fleets, and the Caspian Flotilla will be directly subordinated to the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy.
  • As of December 1st, the Northern Fleet of the Russian Navy will lose its status as an operational-strategic formation, and its ground forces, aviation, and air defense forces will be transferred to the newly re-established Leningrad Military District.

Escalation indicators: 

  • The adversary is building up its forces on the Avdiivka direction and is preparing for a breakthrough of the defense of the “Tavriya” OSG near the Avdiivka coking chemical plant.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Following the completion of their regrouping, it is anticipated that the adversary will imminently reinitiate massed attacks and assault operations on the Avdiivka front.
  • Anticipate the deployment of units of the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army in the Kamianka-Pisochny quarry sector. This is aimed to circumvent the pond-laden terrain, securing the southern flank in support of the 114th and 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades in their assault on the [Avdiivka] coke and chemical plant.
  • The 144th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 40th Army Corps will be deployed in the near future towards the village of Krynky on the Kherson direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.11.23 

Personnel – almost 302,420 people (+930);

Tanks – 5,241 (+18);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,877 (+43);

Artillery systems – 7,292 (+42);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 850 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 566 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,658 (+34);

Aircraft – 322 (+1);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,488 (+20);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,549 (+2);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).


  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 165 towns and villages and 100 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the morning of November 2nd, Russian forces shelled Ochakiv, Mykolayiv Oblast, with artillery, causing damage to residential buildings and resulting in a gas leak. Seven multi-story buildings and private residences were affected.
  • In October, the Air Defense Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 228 out of 243 Shahed-131/136 drones launched by the enemy over Ukraine, as well as 11 out of 15 guided aviation missiles Kh-59 launched by Russia at Ukrainian cities, and 8 out of 9 cruise missiles.
  • Due to the challenging security situation, 275 children with their families from 66 towns and villages of Kharkiv Oblast will be mandatory evacuated. The evacuation is planned to be completed within 45 days. Evacuated children, accompanied by one parent or legal guardian, will be provided with free shelter, humanitarian assistance, and psychological support.

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