Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 03.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Ivanivka, where Ukrainian defenders repelled about 10 enemy attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions. On the Bakhmut direction, the Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost ground near Klishchiivka and Andriivka, where Ukrainian defenders repelled about 10 enemy attacks. The enemy also conducted unsuccessful assault operations near Pivdenne. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy, with the support of aviation, persists in their attempts to encircle Avdiivka. However, Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain their defense, inflicting losses on the enemy. The Russian offensive actions in the areas of Stepove, Tonenke, Severne, and Pervomaiske were unsuccessful, with the Defense Forces repelling about 10 enemy attacks. On the Maryinka direction, the Russian forces conducted unsuccessful assault operations near Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, where Ukrainian troops repelled over 20 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations near Prechystivka and Staromayorske. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost ground near Robotyne. The Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflicting losses on the occupying forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare, destroying enemy supply depots and inflicting damage on their rear areas. 

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, in the western parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and made progress in different sectors. 

General conclusion: 

  • The combat activity on the Kupyansk direction remains low, despite the improvement in weather conditions.
  • The battles on the Kupyansk-Svatove line have a positional character, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces occasionally launch counterattacks.
  • Russian units operating in the Bakhmut area are exhibiting improved coordination and experiencing reduced personnel casualties compared to previous engagements, particularly during the Ukrainian counteroffensive near Bakhmut.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces are concentrating their efforts north of Avdiivka, conducting sequential assault actions primarily with small infantry groups, despite heavy rains in the area. Russian forces are undergoing repositioning and require additional reinforcements.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 50 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced to the west of Orlianka, seized new positions near Petropavlivka and Synkivka, and continued engagements in the direction of Kupyansk. They unsuccessfully attacked near Ivanivka. The enemy continued to attack near Makiyivka and to the northeast of Kupyansk. Combat engagements persist near Torske.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG forces launched an attack near Synkivka and Dibrova.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces advanced further to the northeast of the railway line in the area of Klishchiivka, breaking through the Russian defense to the east of Andriivka, and repelled Russian assaults near Pivdenny.
  • Russian forces made 15 unsuccessful attempts to regain lost positions near Khromove, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. They attacked near Bohdanivka and recaptured several positions to the south of Bakhmut.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the “Tavriya” OSG forces continued to restrain Russian advances near Avdiivka. They repelled Russian attacks near Severne, Tonenke, and Pervomaiske and over 20 Russian attacks near Maryinka. Russian assaults on the Vuhledar direction resulted in significant losses for the enemy.
  • Russian forces have achieved minor successes near Novomykhailivka, expanding their control over positions near Opytne. They have crossed the railway line near Stepove and are preparing to launch an attack on the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant from these newly captured positions, subjecting it to missile and aerial strikes. Ukrainian air defense is impeding Russian forces from delivering powerful strikes in this area.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, Russian forces have captured two Ukrainian positions to the southeast of Velyka Novosilka and unsuccessfully attacked near Staromayorske.
  • On the Tokmak direction, the “Tavriya” OSG forces have advanced to the west of Robotyne and towards Myrne. They attacked near Novoprokopivka and to the southwest of Verbove.
  • Russian forces made unsuccessful attacks near Robotyne.
  • Kherson Direction: “Odesa” OSG forces launched attacks near Poyma and Pishchanivka, advancing near Krynky to the west of the village center.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, there were 4 enemy ships on combat duty; in the Azov Sea, there was 1 enemy ship; in the Mediterranean Sea, there were 2 enemy ships. There were no cruise missiles on board of missile carriers.

Change in enemy disposition: 

  • The 56th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 7th Airborne Assault Division is engaging in combat actions to the southwest of Verbove.
  • The Russian Armed Forces have received the combat UAVs “Scalpel,” which, in some technical parameters, are inferior to the “Lancet” UAVs but are more affordable.

Escalation indicators: 

  • Concentration of the 90th Tank Division of the Central Military District on the Avdiivka direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Anticipate the deployment of units of the 21th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army in the Kamianka-Pisochny quarry sector. This is aimed to circumvent the pond-laden terrain, securing the southern flank in support of the 114th and 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades in their assault on the [Avdiivka] coke and chemical plant.
  • The 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 40th Army Corps will be deployed in the near future towards the village of Krynky on the Kherson direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 03.11.23 

Personnel – almost 303,270 people (+850);

Tanks – 5,265 (+24);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,901 (+24);

Artillery systems – 7,328 (+36);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 854 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 566 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,691 (+33);

Aircraft – 322 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,495 (+7);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,551 (+2);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).


  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 12 regions of Ukraine. 130 towns and villages and 74 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the night of November 3, Russian forces launched another strike on Ukraine, employing 38 Shahed-136/131 combat UAVs and one guided aviation missile X-59. Ukrainian Air defense intercepted 24 UAVs and the X-59 missile.
  • Kharkiv was attacked with four drones. An educational institution suffered partial destruction. A vehicle service station, a non-operational sewing workshop, and a residential building were damaged. Over Odesa Oblast, two UAVs were intercepted, causing impacts on the technical territory of an infrastructure object. No casualties or significant damage were recorded. One drone was downed in Kryvyi Rih district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three drones were destroyed over Mykolaiv region. During the night in Lviv region, there were five hits on critical infrastructure objects, with no casualties or injuries. Eleven drones were downed. Around 6:00 AM, debris from a downed UAV fell in Kalush district of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.
  • As a result of the shelling of the center of Kherson on October 3, three civilians were injured with shrapnel wounds.

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