Russia’s war on Ukraine. 04.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault actions near Synkivka, Ivanivka, and Stelmakhivka. Ukrainian defenders repelled about 10 enemy attacks in this area. On the Lyman direction, the enemy’s assault actions in the Verkhnyokamianske area were unsuccessful. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions near Klishchiivka, where Ukrainian troops repelled about 10 attacks. The enemy conducted unsuccessful assault actions in the areas of Bohdanivka and Khromove. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault actions south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on achieved lines.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy, with air support, continues their attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops hold the defense steadfastly and inflict losses on the enemy. The enemy advances near Stepove, Tonenke, Avdiivka, Severne, and Pervomaiske were unsuccessful. The Defense Forces repelled about 20 enemy attacks in this area. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault actions in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, where Ukrainian troops repelled about 20 enemy attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault actions near Staromayorske. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions near Robotyne. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflicting losses on the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare and inflicting damage on the enemy’s rear areas. 

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, in the western parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and made progress in different sectors. 

General conclusion: 

• Russian forces are preparing for the third wave of major assaults in the vicinity of Avdiivka.
• The command of the “Odesa” OSG has capacity to select locations and timing for operations across the Dnipro on a wide enough front, compelling the adversary to disperse their already constrained forces (only the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) along the shoreline.
• The adversary is unable to redeploy the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army from the Zaporizhzhia direction to reinforce their “Dnieper” operational grouping.
• The deployment of a portion of the enemy’s “Dnieper” operational grouping’s reserve (171st Separate Airborne Assault Battalion of the 7th Airborne Assault Division) and the relocation of the 177th Separate Marine Regiment of the Caspian Flotilla from the Polohy direction to the Pishchanivka area underscores the gravity of the situation for the enemy’s military command.
• It can be concluded that Russia no longer sees the prospect of potentially conducting a grouping of ships through the Turkish straits, thus ceasing active operations in the northern and northwestern sectors of the Black Sea. However, the existing complement of forces and means of the Russian Navy carrying out combat missions in the Black Sea is currently sufficient for safeguarding their base points, executing missile strikes on Ukraine, and conducting reconnaissance activities in the southwestern part of the Black Sea.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 66 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful shelling near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka, and near Stelmakhivka. They improved their positions near Kupyansk and advanced to the southwest of Pershotravneve, near Petropavlivka, Synkivka, and Makiivka. Russian aviation is targeting Ukrainian river crossings over the Oskil River with planned FAB-500 bombs.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces launched attacks near Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka. They repelled over 10 Russian attacks near Bohdanivka, Khromove, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Pivdenne.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have advanced southwest of Krasnohorivka to the railway line north of Avdiivka. They have also made an undefined advance southeast of the city, intensively shelling Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka. Small arms battles are ongoing both to the north and south of the town. Additionally, the enemy has progressed north and west of Krasnohorivka, toward Novokalynove, near Stepove. Intense battles continue near Vesele, in the vicinity of the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, as well as in the southern and southwestern outskirts of Avdiivka and Opytne. They are swiftly constructing fortifications in rear areas near potential avenues of attack in the Avdiivka area to deploy reserves into battle quickly.
• The “Tavriya” OSG forces persistently resisted the Russian advance near Avdiivka, successfully repelling more than 17 Russian assaults near Stepove, Severne, Tonenke, and Pervomaiske. They repelled over 20 Russian attacks near Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, and launched a counterattack north of the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant.
• On the Berdyansk direction, the “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled the assault on the eastern outskirts of Mykilske, held their positions near Pryiutne, and launched an attack near Staromayorske.
• Russian forces advanced along the Pryiutne – Staromykhailivka line. The 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the enemy’s 5th Army advanced to the north of Hrusheva ravine, northeast of Pryiutne, and unsuccessfully attacked near Staromayorske and Prechystivka. The enemy’s command organized a series of unsuccessful counterattacks in the direction of Novodonetske – Zolota Nyva with the forces of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade or the 40th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet. The enemy’s 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade launched a counterattack north of the Pryiutne – Zavitne Bazhannia line and advanced towards Rivnopil.
• On the Tokmak direction, the “Tavriya” OSG forces attacked near Robotyne, Kopani, Novoprokopivka, and Verbove.
• Russian forces launched an unsuccessful assault near Robotyne. The enemy’s command has commenced the withdrawal of units from the 71st and 291st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division from the vicinity of Robotyne to the “Dalniy” training ground (located east of Novopetrivka) to facilitate their recovery following the incurred losses. Presumably, units from the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 58th Army will replace them.
• On the Kherson direction, the “Odesa” OSG forces attacked near Poyma and Krynka.
• The enemy, deploying the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division from the 18th Army, launched an unsuccessful assault on Krynky. They were unable to diminish the “Odesa” OSG’s foothold on the left bank. The 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from the 40th Army Corps is advancing towards the Krynky area.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational maritime region, there was 1 enemy ship on combat duty in the Black Sea, 1 enemy ship in the Azov Sea, and 2 enemy ships in the Mediterranean Sea. There were no cruise missiles on board of the missile carriers.
• The number of Russian Navy ships and vessels formation in the Mediterranean Sea has decreased by a factor of 5 – from 29 ships and vessels in February 2023 to 6 ships and vessels in October 2023, and currently includes 2 missile corvettes, an anti-diversion boat, a reconnaissance ship, a tanker-supply vessel, a floating workshop, and does not have any tugs.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• On the Kherson direction, the enemy’s “Dnieper” operational grouping includes the 171st Separate Airborne Assault Battalion, the 104th Separate Tank Battalion, and the 162nd Separate Ranger Battalion. The 171st Separate Airborne Assault Battalion is advancing towards Pishchanivka.
• In Crimea, the enemy has 57 combat aircraft of operational-tactical and army aviation (including 23 strike aircraft such as Su-24M, Su-34, and Su-25, with the remaining 10 based at the “Hvardiyske” airfield) and up to 58 helicopters (including 28 attack helicopters like Ka-52, Mi-28, and Mi-24/35).

Escalation indicators: 

• Increase in the intensity of the enemy air strikes on river crossings over the Oskil River in the Kupyansk direction.
• Troop redeployment of the enemy’s 1st Army Corps in the area of the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant.
• Advancement of the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade towards Krynky village on the Kherson direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Russian forces are concentrating personnel and combat equipment for a third concerted assault on Avdiivka. It is probable that they will prioritize their offensive efforts around the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant. They are expected to resume more extensive offensive operations north of Avdiivka once the ground has dried out following several days of heavy rain.
• The 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 40th Army Corps will be deployed in the near future towards the village of Krynky on the Kherson direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.11.23 

Personnel – almost 304,100 people (+830);

Tanks – 5,276 (+11);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,939 (+38);

Artillery systems – 7,363 (+35);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 861 (+7);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 568 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,716 (+25);

Aircraft – 322 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,534 (+39);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,551 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian +general

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine. 146 towns and villages and 105 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On the evening of November 4, the enemy launched cruise and ballistic missiles at Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts. Ukrainian Air Defense destroyed three Iskander-K cruise missiles. Preliminarily, rocket fragments have damaged several residential buildings in Myrhorod district, Poltava Oblast. One woman has been killed, and there are injuries, including two children.
• On the evening of November 4, the Russians struck the central part of Kherson. They targeted near a grocery store. Preliminarily, a man was killed, and a woman was wounded.

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