Russia’s war on Ukraine. 07.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault actions in the areas of Synkivka, Ivanivka, and Stelmakhivka, where Ukrainian troops repelled about 20 enemy attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 5 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka and Khromove. The enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain the lost position in the Andriivka area. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy continues its attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops maintain a steadfast defense and inflict losses on the enemy. The Russian offensive actions in the areas of Stepove, Avdiivka, and Tonenke were unsuccessful. The Ukrainian Defensive Forces repelled over 20 attacks. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy carried out over 25 unsuccessful attacks in the areas of Krasnohorivka and Maryinka. On the Shakhtarsk and Zaporizhzhia directions, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault actions near Staromayorske, Chervone, Robotyne, and northwest of Verbove. Ukrainian troops repelled over 10 attacks. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflicting losses on the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare and inflicting damage on the enemy’s rear areas. 

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, in the western parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and made progress in different sectors. 

General conclusion: 

• Concentrated attacks employing large forces in attempts to breach the resilient defense are becoming increasingly ineffective. Small infantry groups with comprehensive support can be more effective in achieving significant operational effects in the current operational situation.
• The adversary’s command persists in executing their strategy to encircle the Avdiivka defensive sector of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, prioritizing the capture of the city as the main focus of their efforts.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces launched a counterattack near Krasnohorivka, compelling Russian troops to retreat from the railway line in this area. They are effectively exerting pressure on Russian forces near Stepove and the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant to the south of Avdiivka.
• The adversary disregards the actual combat readiness and operational effectiveness of their units at the brigade/regiment level, which essentially operate at the company/battalion strength. Nonetheless, they persist in officially designating them as regiments, brigades, and even divisions.
• Russian forces have a reserve of 585 long-range missiles, which means they have increased their missile stockpile by 285 missiles since August. In October, the Russian defense industry produced 115 high-precision long-range missiles: 30 ballistic missiles “Iskander-M,” 12 cruise missiles “Iskander-K,” 20 cruise missiles “Kalibr,” 40 cruise missiles Kh-101, 9 cruise missiles Kh-32, and 4 hypersonic missiles “Kinzhal.” This occurred faster than expected.
• Anticipated Russian missile and aerial strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the forthcoming winter will surpass the rudimentary nature of the attacks in the winter of 2022-2023.
• The Russian occupation administration is expanding the network of recruitment and registration centers for conscripts in the occupied territories to bolster their endeavors in compulsory mobilization.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been 78 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced southwest of Pershotravneve, made progress in the area of Stepova Novoselivka, and unsuccessfully attacked near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka, and Stelmakhivka. Units of the enemy’s 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (SMRBr) unsuccessfully attacked in the direction of Verkhnyokamianka-Spirne. Units of the 25th and 138th SMRBrs of the 6th Combined  Arms Army (CAA) made an unsuccessful attempt to break through to Petropavlivka from the side of Lyman Pershy through Synkivka. Units of the 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment (MRR) of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division (MRD) attacked southwest of Pershotravneve and achieved partial success. South of Novoselivka, the 272nd MRR of the 47th Tank Division (TD) unsuccessfully attempted to advance towards Stelmakhivka..
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces launched attacks near Synkivka, Zahoruykivka, and Tymkivka.
• On the Lyman direction, the command of the enemy’s “Center” operational group of forces deployed the 137th SMRBr from reserves. It is staffed at 75%, armed and equipped at 68-83%. Tanks and MLRS are entirely absent.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces made slight progress to the north near the road close to Vasyukivka. They achieved some success near Berkhivsky Reservoir and  unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions near Klishchiivka and Andriivka. They attacked near Bohdanivka, Khromove, and Pivdenne, but did not advance.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces are counterattacking across the railway line between Klishchiivka and Andriivka, at the Klishchiivka – Andriivka – Kurdyumivka line.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the 15th SMRBr of the Russian 2nd CAA effectively attacked near Stepove and displaced Ukrainian forces from a stronghold in this area, capturing territory beyond the railway line near the northern part of the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant. Units of the 114th SMRBr of the 1st Army Corps (AC) attacked east of Stepove, displacing units of the “Tavria” OSG from one stronghold. The 132nd SMRBr of the 1st AC and the 21st SMRBr of the 2nd CAA attacked the Avdiyivka, securing a position beyond the railway line near the northern part of the plant; the battle is ongoing. The 1st SMRBr of the 1st AC and the 55th SMRBr of the 41st CAA launched an attack in the direction of Kashtanove – “Vynohradnyky”; the battle is ongoing. In the direction of Vodyane – 9th quarter (Avdiivka), Russian attack was repelled, and an attempt to reach the rear of the Defense Forces in the area of Opytne was thwarted. The 9th SMRBr of the 1st AC unsuccessfully attacked in the directions of Vodyane-Tonenke and Pisky-Pervomaiske.
• In order to support the operation to encircle Avdiivka, the enemy’s command conducted a series of attacks with the forces of the 39th SMRBr of the 68th AC in the direction of Novomykhailivka (unsuccessfully), the 5th SMRBr of the 1st AC and the 103rd MRR of the 150th MRD in the direction of Maryinka – Heorhiivka (unsuccessfully).
• The battles persist to the south, east, and north of Avdiivka. Russian forces are making advances in certain regions. The 239th Tank Regiment (TR) of the 90th TD from the Russian Central Military District is on alert for potential developments in the Avdiivka area. Their personnel is at 60-70% capacity, tanks at 34%, and other combat equipment at 54-65%. The regimental command post is located in Korsun village.
• The “Tavria” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Avdiivka, Stepove, Tonenke, Severne, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, and Novomykhailivka. They counterattacked near Avdiivka and regained some lost positions as of November 6th. Near Krasnohorivka, forcing Russian forces to retreat from part of the railway line, they launched a missile strike on an ammunition depot in Sadove and a field helipad.
• Berdyansk direction: Russian forces managed to advance slightly to the east of Zahirne, break through to Staromayorske from the southwest, and counterattacked from the direction of Zavitne Bazhanya. Russian attacks from the area of Pryiutne are putting pressure on Ukrainian positions in Staromayorske. Weather conditions complicate active combat operations, except for artillery duels.
• Tokmak Direction: Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack near Robotyne, captured two Ukrainian positions after a counterattack in this area. They attempted an advance from Verbove, and attacked near Pyatykhatky from the side of Kopani.
• The “Tavriya” OSG forces are attempting to disrupt the Russian defense system near Verbove, conducting periodic local attacks with limited forces near Kopani, Robotyne, and Novoprokopivka. They took advantage of poor weather conditions and limited visibility to carry out assaults near Verbove and repelled Russian attacks north of Nesteryanka and near Pyatykhatky. Positional battles are ongoing near Verbove. 
• Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces control Kamianske.
• Kherson Direction: “Odesa” OSG forces have maintained their positions on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast, repelled a Russian attack, and hold positions in Krynky. They have expanded control over the area north of Pidstepne.
• The enemy command has deployed a minimum of 2 “Shtorm-Z” companies into battle and is preparing to deploy 2 additional companies.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational zone, there were 4 enemy ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, 1 enemy ship in the Azov Sea, and 2 enemy ships in the Mediterranean Sea. There were no cruise missiles on board the carriers.
• During the missile and air strike on the “Zaliv” shipyard in Kerch, the small missile ship “Askold” suffered damage to its main command post and combat posts of weapon control, including the main radar for detecting surface and airborne targets, artillery fire control radar, navigation radar, communication equipment, and “Kalibr” cruise missile launchers. Additionally, approximately 15-25% of the ship’s overall systems were affected. About 50% of the main armament was destroyed. The estimated cost of restoration equals that of building a new ship.
• The 44th Separate Special Purpose Aviation Regiment, armed with MiG-31K aircraft carrying Kh-47M2 ” Kinzhal” missiles, has commenced patrols over the eastern and southeastern parts of the Black Sea. Eleven combat-ready aircraft are stationed at the airfields in Savasleyka, Akhtubinsk, and Mozdok.

Change in enemy disposition:   

• Around 250 former “Wagner” PMC mercenaries have been deployed to the Kupyansk-Lyman sector to oversee assault operations conducted by regular Russian forces within the “Storm-Z” detachments.
• The 58th Separate SOF Brigade of the 1st AC is engaged in combat near Bakhmut. Between Klishchiivka and Andriivka, the “BARS” detachments are operating.

Escalation indicators: 

• Enemy forces continue to concentrate in the Avdiivka direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and their capacity to launch a large-scale offensive, which could impede the Defense Forces’ resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.
• The enemy’s command will likely persist in active offensive actions towards Petropavlivka from the northern direction in the near future. They will seek to breach to the R-07 Kupyansk-Svatove road from the vicinity of Pershotravneve and continue the contest for dominance over the R-07 road on the Stepova Novoselivka- Krokhmalne section. Additionally, they will attack Petropavlivka from the north, from Vilshana and Lyman Pershy, and along the Oskil River and the railway line.
• Attacks on Ivanivka and Kyslivka are unlikely to cease. The enemy, operating along the railway, will attempt to break through in the direction of Stepova Novoselivka – Pishchane.
• Russian forces are concentrating personnel and combat equipment for a third massive assault on Avdiivka. They will likely prioritize their offensive efforts around the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant. They are expected to resume more extensive offensive operations north of Avdiivka once the ground dries out after several days of heavy rain.
• The 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 40th Army Corps will be deployed in the near future towards the village of Krynky on the Kherson direction.
• The “Storm-Z” detachments will be deployed in the defense sector of the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division or in the defensive zone of the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from the direction of Korsunka village.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.11.23 

Personnel – almost 306,860 people (+890);

Tanks – 5,293 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,974 (+16);

Artillery systems – 7,410 (+21);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 869 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 570 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,767 (+23);

Aircraft – 322 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,557 (+3);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,556 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian+general

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 8 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 121 towns and villages and 74 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Two civilians are reported dead and five civilians are reported injured. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• According to the Ukrainian “I Want to Live” project, which aims to encourage Russian soldiers to surrender, a new prisoner of war camp will be established in Ukraine in the near future. Preparations for its operation are currently underway. The rise in the number of prisoners of war is attributed to the evolving frontline situation, waning morale among Russian soldiers, and the hindrance of POW exchanges by the Russian side.
• As of November 7, 2023, 190 children have been evacuated from dangerous communities in the Kupyansk district of Kharkiv Oblast to keep them safe from the Russian shelling, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration Oleh Synehubov said. The evacuation is ongoing. 
• According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, in the temporarily occupied Kherson Oblast, Russian invaders are placing explosives near stationary gas control points, electrical substations, and critical infrastructure facilities. These actions suggest a potential intention to sabotage critical infrastructure elements in the event of a retreat.
• Oleksandr Tolokonnikov, Head of the Press Office of the Kherson Oblast Military Administration, stated that presently, over 800 doctors are providing healthcare services in the recently liberated right-bank part of Kherson Oblast, with medical professionals arriving from various regions. Nevertheless, challenges persist in the [Russia-]occupied territory. For instance, reports from communities in the temporarily occupied Henichesk district indicate waiting times of 1.5 to 3 hours for an ambulance to arrive.
• Crimean Tatar political prisoner Lenur Seydametov, who was sentenced by the Russian occupation authorities to 13 years of imprisonment, needs urgent medical assistance. In prison, he was diagnosed with a Baker’s cyst in his knee joint. In addition, he needs surgery on his lower spine, Crimean Solidarity reports. 

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