Russia’s war on Ukraine. 08.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the areas of Synkivka, Ivanivka, and Berestove, where Ukrainian troops repelled six enemy attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy’s assault attempts in the Serebryansk Forest area were also unsuccessful. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled six enemy attacks near Bohdanivka, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in their attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly hold the defense and inflict ant losses on the enemy. The Defense Forces repelled 14 enemy attacks near Stepove, Avdiivka, Tonenke, and Pervomaiske. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the area of Maryinka, where Ukrainian defenders repelled 17 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy attempted assault operations near Staromayorske, but did not succeed. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, causing losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting counter-battery warfare and inflicting damage on the enemy’s rear areas. 

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, in the western parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and made progress in different sectors. 

General conclusion: 

• Russian forces have shifted to a “creeping advance” tactics on the Avdiivka direction following heavy losses at the start of the operation. The pace of Russian offensive operations in this area has slowed down.
• Russian forces are facing a deficiency in Electronic Warfare (EW) systems along the Avdiivka axis, granting the “Tavriya” OSG forces an aerial advantage, particularly in the deployment of UAVs.
• Russian forces in Ukraine have, for the first time, employed the S-400 air defense system to launch guided missiles with active homing heads. The missile was used in conjunction with a long-range radar detection aircraft A-50.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 45 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Synkivka, Ivanivka, Berestove, and Stelmakhivka. They repelled Ukrainian assaults  near Zahoruykivka and Dibrova.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces crossed the railway near Andriivka and unsuccessfully attacked near Rozdolivka, Minkivka, and Klishchiivka. On the Soledar direction, positional battles are ongoing north of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces made slight progress near Klishchiivka and significantly improved their position near Berkhivka in the direction of Bohdanivka. They regained lost positions in the Zelenopillia area and advanced towards Vasyukivka, Sacco and Vanzetti, near Klishchiivka. Their attacks near Bohdanivka, Khromove, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka were unsuccessful.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces made slight progress along the railway near Stepove and advanced near Severne, but failed to enter the village. They attacked Maryinka, displaced Ukrainian forces from positions near Novomykhailivka, and progressed along the river from Vodyane towards Pervomaiske, to the north of Spartak and near Mykilske, they control a tailings (terrikon) north of Avdiivka. However, Ukrainian artillery hinders the Russian forces from consolidating their positions in this area. Enemy attacks near Stepove, Avdiivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, and Krasnohorivka did not yield success. Positional battles are ongoing in Maryinka, and there are counter-engagements on the western outskirts of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka.
• Berdyansk Direction: “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled Russian assaults near Staromayorske and Pryiutne.
• Tokmak Direction: Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful assault near Chervone. They counterattacked near Kopani and engaged in combat near Pyatykhatky.
• The “Tavriya” OSG forces launched an attack west of Robotyne and near Verbove, consolidating positions in wooded terrain near Verbove. The lack of Russian aerial superiority in this area hinders their reconnaissance and artillery fire coordination.
• Kherson Direction: “Odesa” OSG forces began the redeployment of armored vehicles to the left bank in the area of Krynky, where up to a Ukrainian Marine Corps battalion-level force is already engaged. Combat engagements persisted near Krynky, Poyma, Pishchanivka, and Pidstepne.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational maritime area, there were 8 enemy ships on active duty in the Black Sea, 3 of them were cruise missile carriers. There was 1 enemy ship In the Azov Sea and in the Mediterranean Sea. The total salvo of cruise missiles was 24 missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:   

• The 98th Airborne Division is engaged in combat operations north of Bakhmut.

Escalation indicators: 

• The simultaneous deployment of three Kalibr cruise missile carriers to the combat duty zones.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and their capacity to launch a large-scale offensive, which could impede the Defense Forces’ resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.
• The enemy’s command will likely persist in active offensive actions towards Petropavlivka from the northern direction in the near future. They will seek to breach to the R-07 Kupyansk-Svatove road from the vicinity of Pershotravneve and continue the contest for dominance over the R-07 road on the Stepova Novoselivka- Krokhmalne section. Additionally, they will attack Petropavlivka from the north, from Vilshana and Lyman Pershy, and along the Oskil River and the railway line.
• Enemy’s attacks on Ivanivka and Kyslivka are unlikely to cease. The enemy, operating along the railway, will attempt to break through in the direction of Stepova Novoselivka – Pishchane.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 08.11.23 

Personnel – almost 307,640 people (+780);

Tanks – 5,301 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 9,996 (+22);

Artillery systems – 7,439 (+29);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 872 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 572 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –9,814 (+47);

Aircraft – 322 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,567 (+10);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,556 (0);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian+general

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 134 towns and villages and 118 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Three residents of Donetsk Oblast and one civilian in Kherson Oblast were killed by Russian shelling yesterday, and another person was injured in Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• As a result of the November 5 Russian missile attack on Odesa, six UNESCO World Heritage-listed monuments were damaged i along with 33 residential buildings.
• A Ukrainian police vehicle en route to apprehend a collaborator in the liberated Kharkiv Oblast was targeted by a Russian drone. The Ukrainian Interior Ministry confirmed that three law enforcement officers are now hospitalized with concussions as a result of the attack.
• In the temporarily occupied Crimea, the southern part of the Bilohirsk reservoir has completely dried up, Krym.Realii reports. The nearby Taigan reservoir is also facing a critical decrease in water levels, signaling the onset of a severe water crisis on the peninsula.
• The European Commission has advised EU member states to initiate accession negotiations with Ukraine, citing the country’s successful implementation of over 90% of the recommendations set forth by the EC upon granting Ukraine candidate status. Another progress report on Ukraine’s reforms is scheduled for presentation in March 2024. The European Council is expected to make the final decision regarding the start of the accession talks in December. 

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