Russia’s war on Ukraine. 09.11.2023

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted an unsuccessful assault in the area of Synkivka where Ukrainian Armed forces repelled 6 Russian attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assaults near Novoyehorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled about 30 enemy attacks in the Bohdanivka, Khromove, Klishchiivka and Andriivka areas. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in their attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly hold the defense and inflict losses on the enemy. Russian offensive actions in the areas of Keramik, Stepove, Avdiivka, Severne, and Pervomaiske failed. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled more than 10 enemy attacks. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assaults in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, where Ukrainian troops repelled more than 20 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy carried out unsuccessful assaults in the Staromayorske area and south of Prechystivka. The enemy did not conduct offensive (assault) actions on the Zaporizhzhya direction. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflicting losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces conduct counter-battery warfare and inflict damage on the enemy’s rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, in the western parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and made progress in different sectors.

General conclusion:

• In October, the Russian Air and Space Forces deployed approximately 1,000 air bombs in the Unified Gliding and Correction Module (UMPK) version.
• The Russian military command is accumulating stocks of air attack equipment for strikes on the energy system of Ukraine in winter.
• North Korea has already transferred 2,000 containers with 122 and 152 mm caliber ammunition, and KN-23, KN-24 rockets for the KN-25 MLRS to the Russian Federation.
• The daily losses of the Russian Armed Forces exceed the number of personnel they are able to train, equip and deploy to the combat zones.
• The combined efforts of the artillery, electronic warfare and UAV units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces managed to block the units of the Russian Armed Forces in Kozachi Laheri.
• Russian forces attack in groups of 10-20 people and employ a large number of UAVs to detect the artillery of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
• Russian forces failed to effectively use the Dnipro floodplains as a supply lane.
• The Ukrainian command has found a way to deliver both sufficient and timely supplies to the units on the left bank bridgeheads which fully ensured the conduct of medium-intensity combat operations.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 78 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG troops repulsed Russian assaults near Synkivka, Ivanivka, Berestove, Novoyehorivka, and in the Serebryansk Forest area.
• Russian forces are facing difficult in advancing through the dense minefields in the Pervomaiske area.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian troops slightly advanced from Berkhivka to Bohdanivka, and counterattacked near Klishchiivka
• The “Khortytsia” OSG troops repulsed Russian attacks near Bohdanivka, Khromove, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the “Tavria” OSG troops repulsed Russian assaults near Keramik, Stepove, Avdiivka, Tonenke, and Pervomaiske, and successfully counterattacked near Avdiivka and Vodyane.
• Russian troops near Vodyane push Ukrainian units in the direction of Severne and Pervomaiske. They advanced 400 m from the southern outskirts of Avdiyivka, near the railway track near Stepove, concurrently suffering significant losses, and conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Maryinka and Novomykhailivka.
• Berdyansk direction: Russian troops have advanced to the north of Mykilske, battles continues in the area of summer cottages west of Mykilske. Combat engagements near Vuhledar have intensified in recent days.
• In the Staromayorske area, Russian troops repelled attacks by the “Tavria” OSG units and unsuccessfully counterattacked south of Prechystivka.
• Tokmak direction: the “Tavriya” OSG forces continued their offensive in the Melitopol direction, trying to capture the heights northwest of Verbove where Russian troops had already withdrawn from several positions
• Russian troops conducted an unsuccessful counterattack near Verbove.
• Kherson direction: the troops of the “Odesa” OSG hold positions on the eastern bank in Kherson Oblast. They advanced near Krynky, attacked near Poyma, Pishchanivka, and Pidstepne, and continued to transfer personnel to reinforce positions on the eastern bank. The bridgeheads of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of road and railway bridges have been combined into one. The “Odesa” OSG advanced units have cut the road along the river in the Oleshky – Nova Kakhovka section and are moving in the direction of the E58 highway.
• Units of the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian 70th Motorized Rifle Division hold a part of the forest south of Krynky and the northeastern part of the village, but the enemy faces a negative development of the situation. An attack by the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 18th Army in this area was also repelled. Units of the 177th Separate Marines Regiment of the Russian Caspian Flotilla, the 171st Separate Airborne Assault Battalion of the 7th Airborne Assault Division and 205th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade are trying to hold the first position of the main defense line along the riverside road on the Pidstepne – Pishchanivka section. The situation north of Pidstepne has significantly deteriorated. The 28th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th Army operates in the second echelon of the tactical group deployed along the Pischanka-Pidstepne line, north of Radensk and the southwestern part of Chelburda.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 3 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea; there was 1 enemy ship In the Azov Sea and 1 in the Mediterranean Sea. There were no cruise missile carriers in the combat duty areas. 
• While mooring at berth No. 6, the superstructure of the ore carrier KMAX RULER, flying the flag of Liberia, was hit by a Russian anti-radar Kh-31 missile. There were 5 casualties, including the pilot who lost his life, and 3 crew members (citizens of the Philippines), 1 member of the mooring team (citizen of Ukraine) were injured. The tugboat “Volodymyr Ivanov” performing mooring sustained damaged (window shattered).

Change in enemy disposition:  

• The 77th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army of the Eastern Military District operates in the area of Staromayorske.
• Units of the 237th Airborne  Assault Regiment of the 76th Airborne Assault Division, the 22nd Separate SOF Brigade, the 247th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 7th Airborne Assault Division were spotted in the Verbove area
• The Russian Air and Space Forces have received new Ka-52M attack helicopters, equipped with the aiming system GOES-451, the updated BKS-50M communication system, and the SUO-806PM fire control system, which can utilize new armaments including onboard defense complex L418 “Monoblok”, B006 “Rezets” radar, and integrated light multi-purpose guided missiles.

Escalation Indicators:

• Preparations for the third wave of the Avdiivka assault have been completed.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and their capacity to launch a large-scale offensive, which could impede the Defense Forces’ resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.
• The enemy’s command will likely persist in active offensive actions towards Petropavlivka from the northern direction in the near future. They will seek to breach to the R-07 Kupyansk-Svatove road from the vicinity of Pershotravneve and continue the contest for dominance over the R-07 road on the Stepova Novoselivka- Krokhmalne section. Additionally, they will attack Petropavlivka from the north, from Vilshana and Lyman Pershy, and along the Oskil River and the railway line.
• Russian troops are ready to conduct the third wave of assault on Avdiyivka, but adverse weather conditions are hindering the use of armored vehicles.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 09.11.23

Personnel – almost 308,720  people (+1080);

Tanks 5,316 (+15);

Armored combat vehicles – 10,014 (+18);

Artillery systems – 7,475 (+36);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 872 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 575 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 9,853 (+39);

Aircraft – 322 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,593 (+26);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,557 (+1);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 134 towns and villages and 94 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Two residents of Donetsk Oblast are reported dead and 3 civilians in Kherson and in Donetsk Oblast are reported injured. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• Three more Ukrainian children have been successfully repatriated to the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities, Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the Kherson Oblast Military Administration (OMA) reported.
• Russian occupation forces conduct mobilization in the temporarily occupied parts of Ukraine under the guise of a volunteer initiative. Men of conscription age are issued summonses to the occupation military commissariats as soon as they are forced into getting Russian passports. Reservists are mobilized immediately and others are offered to sign a contract with the Russian military. This practice is widely spread in rural areas.   
• As a part of the strategy to restore governance and reintegrate the population of temporarily occupied territories, Ukraine has established 45 qualification centers where residents of liberated territories and internally displaced persons (IDPs) can validate their professional qualifications.
• Despite the November 8 Russian attack on a civilian vessel with an anti-radar missile Kh-31P in one of the ports, the movement of ships to the ports of Greater Odesa along the corridor organized by Ukraine in the Black Sea continues.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent