Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 10.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted an unsuccessful assault in the area of Synkivka where Ukrainian Armed forces repelled 7 Russian attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assaults near Stelmakhivka and Novoyehorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled about 10 enemy attacks in the Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka and Andriivka areas. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in their attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly hold the defense and inflict losses on the enemy. The enemy conducted assault actions southeast of Novokalynove, Avdiivka, and Pervomaiske where Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 enemy attacks. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assaults in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, where Ukrainian troops repelled more than 25 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy carried out unsuccessful assaults south of Zolota Nyva and Staromayorske. On the Zaporizhzhya direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 4 Russian attacks in the Verbove and Robotyne areas. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflict losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces conduct counter-battery warfare and inflict damage on the enemy’s rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, in the western parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and made progress in the area of Kupyansk.

General conclusion:

  • Russian forces carried out nearly 30 attacks northwest and southwest of Bakhmut between November 8 and 9, far exceeding the usual number. The intensification of Russian activity in the Bakhmut direction is meant to block the transfer of the “Khortytsia” OSG troops to other directions.
  • Russian forces are unlikely to develop offensive efforts at an operational scale near Bakhmut due to incurred losses and disorganized command structures.
  • In the recent days, the Russian forces have intensified the use of aviation in the Avdiivka direction, employing Ka-52 and Mi-8 helicopters, and Su-25 attack aircraft.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 69 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops made slight progress to the south of Pershotravneve, attacked the Serebryansk Forest area, capturing several positions. They unsuccessfully attacked near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stelmakhivka, and Novoyehorivka and repulsed Ukrainian attacks near Tymkivka, Synkivka, and Kreminna. Battles took place near Kyslivka, Dibrova and Torske.
  • “Khortytsia” OSG troops launched an attack with the support of armored vehicles to the northeast of Kupyansk and to the west of Svatove.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian troops have advanced towards Klishchiivka and hold positions east of the village and west of the railway track, try to dislodge Ukrainian forces from positions in Andriivka and around it. They have advanced south of the Berkhiv Reservoir.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian troops have achieved success near Stepove and are entrenching themselves in new positions near the village. They advanced up to 1 km beyond the railway track in a section approximately 3 km from Berdychi, hold positions within 500 m of Avdiyivka itself. They are trying to break through the defense of the “Tavria” OSG near Vodyane. Russian forces, with the support of aviation, carried out unsuccessful attacks southeast of Novokalynove, near Avdiivka, Keramik, Stepove, Severne, and Pervomaiske.
  • Berdyansk direction: “Tavria” OSG troops repelled Russian attacks near Staromayorske and south of Prechystivka.
  • Tokmak direction: “Tavria” OSG forces advanced to the northwest of Verbove, attacked near Robotyne and Novoprokopivka.
  • Russian assaults near Verbove and Robotyne failed.
  • Kherson direction: the troops of the “Odesa” OSG captured new positions in Krynky, stormed Russian positions to the south and southwest of the village, advanced to the wooded areas south of Krynky, attacked near Poyma, Pishchanivka, and Pidstepne, attempting to consolidate positions between Pidstepne and Kozachi Laheri.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 4 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea; there was 1 enemy ship in the Azov Sea and 1 in the Mediterranean Sea. There were no cruise missile carriers in the combat duty areas.

Change in enemy disposition:  not detected. 

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and their capacity to launch a large-scale offensive, which could impede the Defense Forces’ resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.
  • The enemy’s command will likely persist in active offensive actions towards Petropavlivka from the northern direction in the near future. They will seek to breach to the R-07 Kupyansk-Svatove road from the vicinity of Pershotravneve and continue the contest for dominance over the R-07 road on the Stepova Novoselivka- Krokhmalne section. Additionally, they will attack Petropavlivka from the north, from Vilshana and Lyman Pershy, and along the Oskil River and the railway line.
  • Russian troops are ready to conduct the third wave of assault on Avdiyivka but adverse weather conditions are hindering the use of armored vehicles.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.11.23

Personnel – almost 309,520   people (+800);

Tanks 5,317 (+1);

Armored combat vehicles – 10,017 (+3);

Artillery systems – 7,489 (+14);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 877 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 578 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 9,876 (+23);

Aircraft – 322 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,595 (+2);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,558 (+1);

Boats/ships – 21 (0).

Humanitarian +general:

  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 124 towns and villages and 61 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Two Ukrainian children, Yehor and Valeriya, born in 2009 and 2015 were repatriated to the territory controlled by the Ukrainian government from the occupied Crimea, accompanied by their grandmother.
  • Ukrainian police evacuated 16 more children from dangerous areas of Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Ukrainian human rights defender, former BBC journalist and Ukrainian Armed Forces soldier Maksym Butkevich disappeared in the Russian penal system. Since the end of August 2023, neither his lawyer nor his parents have any information about Butkevich’s whereabouts. Letters and parcels sent to him to the pre-trial detention center in temporarily occupied Luhansk are returned.
  • According to the preliminary data of the World Bank, damage to Ukrainian medical infrastructure facilities is estimated at 2.5 billion dollars. Over the next 10 years, 16.4 billion dollars are needed to restore Ukraine’s healthcare system.
  • Due to hostilities and other factors, 419 Ukrainian towns and villages remain without electricity. Networks owned by Oblenergo in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson Oblasts sustained damage due to Russian shelling.
  • Due to the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the number of Ukrainians who experienced being in a combat zone increased from 18% to 44%, according to a Rating Group poll. Approximately 69% of respondents exhibit a normal level of psychological distress, while 21% report an elevated level, and 10% indicate a high level.

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