Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 11.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted assault action with the air support in the area of Synkivka, northeast of Petropavlivka, Ivanivka and Stelmakhivka where Ukrainian Armed forces repelled 8 Russian attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assaults with the support of aviation near Novoyehorivka, Nevske and Serebryansk forestry. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 16 enemy attacks near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in their attempts to encircle Avdiivka employing aviation. Ukrainian troops steadfastly hold the defense and inflict losses on the enemy. Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled 35 Russian attacks east of Novokalynove, Stepove, Avdiivka, Severne, south of Tonenke and Pervomaiske. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted assault actions with support of the aviation in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, where Ukrainian troops repelled 18 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy carried out unsuccessful assaults with the support of aviation near Staromayorske. On the Zaporizhzhya direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault actions in the Verbove and Robotyne areas. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflict losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces conduct counter-battery warfare and inflict damage on the enemy’s rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, in the western parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and made progress on some sectors.

General conclusion:

  • The adversary focused on assault operations in the Kupyansk direction, deploying an increased number of armored vehicles in their assaults.
  • Minefields, UAVs and artillery fire of the “Khortytsia” OSG complicate Russian attacks on the southern flank of Bakhmut.
  • The primary goal of the Russian forces is the Avdiivka Coke Chemical Plant; its capture would enable the Russian troops to establish defensive positions in the industrial zone rather than the wooded terrain.
  • Russian troops are trying both to encircle Avdiivka and deprive the “Tavria” OSG troops of the opportunity to maintain positions in the rear areas on the Avdiivka direction.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces are consistently attempting counterattacks in all directions to regain lost positions.
  • Gaps in the air defense system of the Russian “Dnepr” operational grouping allow the “Odesa” OSG forces to operate with strike-tactical aviation on the front near Krynky.
  • Since June 2023, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have been conducting a campaign to block Russian military infrastructure in the occupied Crimea, focusing primarily on the assets belonging to the Black Sea Fleet. The overarching objective is to reduce the enemy’s capacity to use Crimea as a bridgehead and a rear for Russian operations in the south of  Ukraine.
  • Russian forces continue to struggle with low morale and poor discipline.
  • On November 1, in occupied Simferopol, a group of mobilized servicemen of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army of the Russian Southern Military District beat the deputy commander of their regiment, Lieutenant Colonel Muserbekov, who died of his injuries on November 7. Subsequently, the mobilized individuals fled to the Krasnodar Territory (Russia) in civilian attire.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 87 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops slightly advanced to the southwest of Petropavlivka, repulsed 3 Ukrainian attacks in the area of Tymkivka and Synkivka.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG troops repulsed Russian attacks near Synkivka, Ivanivka, Stelmakhivka, northeast of Petropavlivka, Novoyehorivka, and Serebryansk forestry in the direction of Lyman.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG troops made slight progress to the north of Klishchiivka. They continued to hold positions behind the railway and repulsed Russian assaults near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, and Andriivka.
  • Russian troops have slightly advanced in the wooded terrain north of Klishchiivka. They have recaptured some previously lost positions north of Andriivka near the water reservoir and are securing positions in the forest belt behind the railway track, pushing Ukrainian troops away from the T0513 highway. They continue counterattacking near Klishchiivka, Berkhivka, and the Berkhivka reservoir.
  •  On the Avdiivka direction, Russian troops entered the outskirts of Stepove and continued combat engagements in this area. They have secured positions along the railway line,  achieving tactical successes near Stepove. Russian troops continued to attack toward the Avdiivka Coke Chemical Plant, and continued to advance on Maryinka and Novomykhailivka with “Storm-Z” units. They attacked Ukrainian positions near Krasnohorivka and on the western outskirts of Maryinka and attempted to advance near Vuhledar, but failed. The main battles are unfolding in the directions of Stepove, Berdychi, Severne, and Tonenke.
  • The “Tavria” OSG troops repelled Russian attacks to the east and southeast of Novokalynove, Stepove, Avdiyivka, Severne, Pervomaiske and south of Tonenke. They counterattacked northeast of Vodyane, regaining previously lost positions, and repelled Russian assaults near Maryinka and Novomykhailivka.
  • Berdyansk direction: The “Tavria” OSG troops attacked near Staromayorske.
  • Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked near Staromayorske and south of Zolota Nyva.
  • Tokmak direction: the “Tavria” OSG forces attacked in the vicinity of Kopani and Novoprokopivka; battles continued for the height northwest of Verbove. Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked Russian military facilities in the Kamianka-Dniprovska area with MRLS.
  • Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked near Robotyne and Verbove.
  • Kherson direction: the troops of the “Odesa” OSG attacked in the vicinity of Poyma, Pishchanivka, Pidstepne, and Krynky, fired at the 126th Military Investigative Department of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation in the city of Skadovsk, killing up to 10 Russian officers, including the acting head of the department.
  • Russian troops advanced to the south of Krynky. The Russian military command uses the 10th Separate SOF Brigade for assault operations.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 3 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea; there was 1 enemy ship in the Azov Sea and 1 in the Mediterranean Sea. There were no cruise missile carriers in the combat duty areas.
  • Near Chornomorsk, the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the Vuzka Bay with four unmanned boats, sinking the Project 1176 “Akula” Small Landing Ship and the Project 11770 “Serna” Small Landing Ship. The Serna ship had a crew on board and was loaded with armored vehicles, including BTR-82 armored personnel carriers.

Change in enemy disposition:

  • The newly formed “Volga” volunteer artillery brigade reinforced the enemy’s 2nd Army Corps.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and their capacity to launch a large-scale offensive, which could impede the Defense Forces’ resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.
  • The enemy’s command will likely persist in active offensive actions towards Petropavlivka from the northern direction in the near future. They will seek to breach to the R-07 Kupyansk-Svatove road from the vicinity of Pershotravneve and continue the contest for dominance over the R-07 road on the Stepova Novoselivka- Krokhmalne section. Additionally, they will attack Petropavlivka from the north, from Vilshana and Lyman Pershy, and along the Oskil River and the railway line.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.11.23

Personnel – almost 310,650   people (+1130);

Tanks 5,342 (+25);

Armored combat vehicles – 10,041 (+24);

Artillery systems – 7,527 (+38);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 879 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 579 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 9,925 (+49);

Aircraft – 322 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,620 (+25);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,559 (+1);

Boats/ships – 23 (+2).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 149 towns and villages and 83 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the morning of November 11, after a 52-day pause, Russia launched an “Iskander” ballistic missile towards Kyiv. As reported by Serhiy Popko, the head of the Kyiv Military Administration, the missile was shot down by the Patriot air defense system.
  • The morning Russian missile attack on Kyiv Oblast resulted in damage to 18 private residential buildings and a private enterprise. No infrastructure objects were hit and there were no victims, Kyiv Oblast Military Administration reported. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed to have hit an ammunition dump in Kyiv Oblast.
  • As a result of Russian shelling, there were blackouts in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson Oblasts; an electric substation was on fire in Sumy Oblast. All generation facilities function properly and produce sufficient amounts of energy to meet household and industry needs.
  • According to Oleh Baturin, a journalist from the occupied Nova Kakhovka, Russian occupation forces continue abducting people. However, information on these incidents is scarce as relatives fear reprisals and believe there will be no help. The priority for many is survival. The local hospital in Nova Kakhovka has been non-operational since late 2022, compelling  residents to seek medical care in neighboring towns. There is no public transportation and very few cars left because the occupation authorities confiscated many of them.
  • Russian occupation forces deliberately mine and blow up infrastructure facilities in the temporarily occupied Kherson Oblast. They falsely accuse Ukrainian Defense Forces of destroying them in order to turn the local population against them, head of the joint press center of the Operational Command “South” Nataliya Gumenyuk said. She highlighted that Russia employed the same tactic during their retreat from the city of Kherson last year.
  • A shortage of medications is escalating in the temporarily occupied Crimea, with the occupation administrations restricting civilian access to medicines. The medications and hospital beds are reserved for the increasing number of Russian military personnel brought into Crimea. Local residents are forced to donate blood for the Russian troops, as reported by the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

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